shurlock

You’re missing the point. The idea of regulatory autonomy for a country the size of the UK is a myth - in reality it will be compelled to ‘pick sides’. If you think the EU is playing hardball, you’ve seen nothing yet (from both the EU and the US). As for point 77, if it’s in the political declaration, it carries limited legal force.

The UK will always be a regulation taker, limiting its autonomy - the real question is whether it’s regulation is more aligned with the EU or the US, the other big regulatory power.

A night out with soggy in the mean streets of Maidstone.

It doesn’t remove the backstop so much as make it permanent, albeit applying only to NI (rather than the UK-wide) which was always the EU’s first preference.

There’s a difference between using data for descriptive and prediction purposes. Discovering hidden gems in the transfer market (an example of prediction) based on modelling various player and contextual features is still a fools errand. Understanding opposition tendencies (an example of description) based on systematic data collection -in effect an extension of old-fashioned scouting- is far more useful.

Well England, Scotland and Wales will be facing exactly the same no deal cliff edge in December 2020 once the transition period runs out. It’s pretty unlikely that a comprehensive FTA with the EU will have been negotiated and agreed by then. It’ll be deja vu all over again.

Because your view of the world (on this question) is black and white, so necessitated a black and white response. There are a large number of people who voted Brexit Party and see this as a surrender treaty. And there are conditional remainers who would vote for a deal -and some voted for May’s deal and many more voted for a permanent customs union or what’s been called the common market 2.0- but oppose Johnson’s deal on the merits because it fundamentally threatens the union and because of the implications of the political declaration. Characterising the majority of remain opposition as either knee-jerk or politically cynical is pony.

So you’re chatting s**t then.

I’m confused. GM was telling us that it was the freedom charter...

Do you think Wes Tender voted remain or leave in the referendum pal?

Absolutely - three years on and the cretin still doesn’t understand the relationship between Brexit and the pound. I also told him I sold my holdings weeks ago after the Benn Act passed which substantially reduced the chances of no deal. The poor fella really is a bit dim.

You love it.

What kind of sicko invites the Dunns to the White House, blindsides them with news that Anne Sacoolas is in the room next door and has the press corps ready just in case.

The recent South Park episode “Band in China” is very good - touches on lots of these issues.

Nope. They would apply to all organisations. By definition, any organisation exporting to another market already has to comply with that market’s rules and regulations. The EU will be pushing that the UK as a whole aligns its regulations with the EU in key areas as the price of access.

Oh yeh I forgot to add that under the rebate system being discussed to manage the double customs area, you, me and every other taxpayer will be effectively subsidising the EU. That’s because NI importers will be paying EU tariffs under the plan (money collected and sent to the EU) but where UK trade policy involves lower tariffs on imports from third countries than the EU’s we will rebate NI businesses the difference.

Some would claim its more of a surrender; others would say f**k NI (and Scotland who’ll be taking notes)-at least, it allows the UK to have an independent trade policy without having to come up with an alternative to replace the UK-wide backstop. Of course, the scope of that independent trade policy will be heavily circumscribed when the EU and UK negotiate a FTA and the EU insists on all kinds of level playing field conditions. In the meantime, the UK will need to pony up billions for the divorce bill and remain in the EU’s transitional arrangements (that includes the CU and SM with zero say in their administration).

Wasn’t that over the UK-wide backstop as opposed to the NI-only backstop? The NI-only backstop was originally proposed by the EU and was always it’s first preference but was rejected by May for threatening the constitutional integrity of the UK (not to mention her working majority in Parliament) and effectively annexing NI in the words of the swivels. Sounds like we’re returning to that. The unresolved issue (at least compared to what was leaked over the weekend) is how much the UK has conceded on its double customs plan (which legally means that NI is part of the UK’s customs union but effectively keeps NI in the EU’s custom area) given its complexity. On the other hand, the divorce bill, citizens rights and transitional arrangement all appear to be the same as May’s deal.

Sold my holdings and took my profits several weeks ago pal just after the Benn Act passed. That the pound has been rising since only bears out my analysis (not as if took much foresight). Might go back in once the draft WA is published and I examine the odds of it securing a parliamentary majority. #smartmoney

Quite a few actually pal.

Barney Ronay, writing ahead of the game, always good value. https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2019/oct/14/england-racism-euro-qualifiers-barney-ronay

As good as VVD

What are the Mitchell brothers up to?

Fair play for packing so much confused thinking into one paragraph. Very little to nothing is agreed in principle. The withdrawal agreement will buy a temporary reprieve till the end of 2020 thanks to transitional arrangements but we will again face the damaging prospect of no deal if the UK and EU do not sign a FTA in that time (never mind the constitutional time bombs the WA sets off in NI and Scotland). The gap in negotiating positions is massive: the EU will make any deal conditional on the UK’s acceptance of competition, state aid, taxation, labour and environmental rules that ensure a level playing field which is utterly anathema to the current government. Your observation that when the EU were making trade deals with other nations the population took no notice is equally confused. Those other countries were working towards an agreement where there wasn’t one before which is a positive move, reducing trade frictions and enabling mutually beneficial cooperation. The UK is in a fundamentally different position - it is attempting to unwind 40 years of deep economic integration which will only make trade and cooperation more difficult - hence why businesses are already deeply concerned about Johnson’s objectives for the next phase of negotiations. https://www.ft.com/content/a29b405e-ec41-11e9-a240-3b065ef5fc55 Finally please put to bed the dopey myth that it’s uncertainty rather than Brexit that’s harming the economy. Uncertainty doesn’t help but it’s a second order issue. Why do you think the pound jumped when the Benn Act was passed or the Supreme Court deemed the prorogation of parliament illegal. Both these events substantially increased uncertainty but the markets responded favourably to them since they made a hard Brexit less likely: it doesn’t take a genius to work out what the markets perceive the real danger to be...

A tribute to John courtesy of Chris Morris.