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Analysis of our poor results

Dusic

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Dusic

Dusic

Posted
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Apologies this is quite long...

Its easy to have knee jerk reactions after a game, but when you have lost 6 on the spin in the league it seems worth analysing as collective.

Summary:

Really poor performances: 2.5/6 (Utd, Newcastle, 2nd half Wolves)

Unlucky to lose: 1/6 (Villa)

Wrong end of poor officiating: 4/6 (Leicester, Villa, United, Wolves albeit Utd not influencing outcome)

Significant injuries: 5/6 (KWP missing alone is significant as have no cover for him, but many games have missed multiple starting XI players)

Strange Managerial starting XI selection or clear sub errors: 0/6

Games with good sub options: 1/6 (Villa, at least in attack)

Games we started well: 4/6 (Leicester, Arsenal, Villa, Wolves)

Games we faded in second half: 5/6 (Leicester, Arsenal, Utd, Newcastle, Wolves)

Game by game:

Leicester away 2-0
Players missing: Ings, Redmomd, Romeu, Djenepo, Salisu, Vestergaard
Selection: no issues
Players out of position: None
Poor decisions costing us: Yes. Clear foul on Diallo in build up to Leicester first goal when we were comfortable in the game.
Performance: Strong first half, faded second.

Arsenal home 1-3
Players missing: KWP, Bertrand, Vestergaard, Romeu, Djenepo, Salisu
Selection: Had to pick Valery and Vokins as no other options. Had to use Watts and N'Lundulu from bench as no other options.
Players out of position: None
Poor decisions costing us: No
Performance: Strong start, good goal and then poor mistake from McCarthy. Faded second half and Arsenal exposed Valery and Vokins ruthlessly. Didnt have good sub options.

Villa home 0-1
Players missing: KWP, Vestergaard, Salisu
Selection: no issues
Players out of position: JWP at RB. Winning goal came from this side.
Poor decisions costing us: Yes. Should have been given clear pen for Cash handball. Very tight offside for Ings where VAR lines not clear.
Performance: Generally good apart from scoring. Also finished strongly.

Man Utd away 9-0
Players missing: KWP, Vestergaard, Romeu, Diallo, Walcott, Salisu
Selection: Had to pick Ramsay at RB and Jankewitz as no other options aside from possibly Armstrong in CM but no real issue as that is Jankewitz preferred position. In game had no experienced sub options to change shape. No issue.
Players out of position: No
Poor decisions costing us: Yes. Awful VAR decision on Bednarek that probably lead to 9-0 rather than 7. Also seemingly incorrect offside vs Adams at 4-0.
Performance: Everything went against us from 75secs, a one off. VAR and lack of viable sub options was a factor in end scoreline plus Ramsay being targetted as he isnt PL quality.

Newcastle away 3-2
Players missing: KWP, Diallo, Walcott
Selection: Stephens at RB as no other options. No issue
Players out of position: Stephens, cost at least one goal
Poor decisions costing us: No
Performance: Poor, should have taken something from the game and I think would have done but for the McCarthy mistake giving them the 3-1 just before HT.

Wolves home 1-2
Players missing: Diallo, Walcott
Selection: No issue
Players out of position: None
Poor decisions costing us: Yes - very debatable handball given and another not
Performance: Strong first half, faded badly second half. Forced to change shape once KWP off injured as no cover within our 9 subs.

Conclusion:
We have been screwed by officials during this run, but performances have also not been good enough over 90mins to win games and we seem to let poor decisions affect us as if it then provides an excuse.

Ralph has usually picked sensible starting XIs but hasn't had good sub options to impact the game in the second half, particularly up front and in centre mid to add energy and defensively in the Utd game.

When cup games are added, the frequency of games has taken its toll as we have faded badly in 5 of the 6 games. Unfortunately we will have a couple more weeks with midweek games as some players look flogged and need a break which we cannot give them due to injuries or the fact we have few players to come in who are good enough.

Having a high intensity style, coupled with lots of midweek games and some players for whom we have no replacement isn't a good recipe, and there is a clear pattern of starting games well and with high intensity and then being limp in the second half with inexperienced subs making little impact.

Not having cover for KWP has been a major factor with each of Ramsay, JWP and Stephens having poor games and conceding goals down that side. Injury to Diallo was very unfortunate for a few reasons. However, you cannot excuse a poor run simply because your RB is not available.

I don't see how Ralph is at fault. The only things that could be levelled at him are prioritising the cup which many want him to do, and playing key players in too many games (or players who are not used to it) leading to injuries for the likes of KWP, Diallo, Walcott, Romeu.

The PL is ruthless and will expose any weakness and it might get worse before it gets better as the problems will remain if KWP misses more games. 

Deciding in the summer to go with Vokins and Valery as full back cover was an error. Not rectifying that in January has compounded it.

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trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dusic said:

Conclusion:
We have been screwed by officials during this run, but performances have also not been good enough over 90mins to win games and we seem to let poor decisions affect us as if it then provides an excuse.

Some thoughtful and considered analysis there @Dusic 👍

I guess there's an element of chicken and egg regards performance Vs impact of poor decisions. As I think someone posted on the match thread, players are only human and you can end up in a vicious spiral of poor  decisions from the match officials leading to demoralisation which leads to poor reactions and/or performances. 

The biggest issue to me (that we have control of) is how we often come out playing after the half time break seemingly one or two gears lower than what we finished the first half in, both physically and mentally. Maybe teams are simply getting wise to our hell-to-leather approach to the first 45 minutes in the knowledge that we'll take our foot off the gas in the 2nd half.

Dunno.

The thing that fustrates me most with Saints is how we can go a whole flippin' calendar year as one of the top teams in the country and then, at the flip of a coin, turn into one of the poorest teams. 

Never a dull moment being a Saints fan though... 

Edited by trousers
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Dusic

Dusic

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I think the demoralisation bit comes from knowing that getting goals and winning is very hard at PL level, especially if you are in a poor moment and a feeling of here we go again.

During this poor run a factor is that Newcastle aside the goals have dried up as well, so the decisions like the Ings offside are even more important but we could have been two goals up by then had we taken our chances.

Earlier in the season we had more goal threats. Now it feels like Ings, Armstrong or a JWP free kick. 

Thats one area Walcott is a big miss. His finishing is erratic but his movement means he gets big chances, Redmond and Djenepo don't make the same runs and looks like Minamino won't either.

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trousers

trousers

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Dusic said:

Thats one area Walcott is a big miss. His finishing is erratic but his movement means he gets big chances

Good point. I was going to mention Theo on a thread earlier actually. I do think we miss his movement a lot. He creates space for others. Probably no coincidence our form has stayed low whilst he's been out

Edited by trousers
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S-Clarke

S-Clarke

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26 minutes ago, spyinthesky said:

What would be our position without Ings goals I wonder?

Actually this season we haven't been as reliant on Ings as we were last year.

We would be on around 20 pts without Ings goals, but that's not saying someone else wouldn't have scored them...!

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Appy

Appy

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Dusic said:

Apologies this is quite long...

Its easy to have knee jerk reactions after a game, but when you have lost 6 on the spin in the league it seems worth analysing as collective.

Summary:

Really poor performances: 2.5/6 (Utd, Newcastle, 2nd half Wolves)

Unlucky to lose: 1/6 (Villa)

Wrong end of poor officiating: 4/6 (Leicester, Villa, United, Wolves albeit Utd not influencing outcome)

Significant injuries: 5/6 (KWP missing alone is significant as have no cover for him, but many games have missed multiple starting XI players)

Strange Managerial starting XI selection or clear sub errors: 0/6

Games with good sub options: 1/6 (Villa, at least in attack)

Games we started well: 4/6 (Leicester, Arsenal, Villa, Wolves)

Games we faded in second half: 5/6 (Leicester, Arsenal, Utd, Newcastle, Wolves)

Game by game:

Leicester away 2-0
Players missing: Ings, Redmomd, Romeu, Djenepo, Salisu, Vestergaard
Selection: no issues
Players out of position: None
Poor decisions costing us: Yes. Clear foul on Diallo in build up to Leicester first goal when we were comfortable in the game.
Performance: Strong first half, faded second.

Arsenal home 1-3
Players missing: KWP, Bertrand, Vestergaard, Romeu, Djenepo, Salisu
Selection: Had to pick Valery and Vokins as no other options. Had to use Watts and N'Lundulu from bench as no other options.
Players out of position: None
Poor decisions costing us: No
Performance: Strong start, good goal and then poor mistake from McCarthy. Faded second half and Arsenal exposed Valery and Vokins ruthlessly. Didnt have good sub options.

Villa home 0-1
Players missing: KWP, Vestergaard, Salisu
Selection: no issues
Players out of position: JWP at RB. Winning goal came from this side.
Poor decisions costing us: Yes. Should have been given clear pen for Cash handball. Very tight offside for Ings where VAR lines not clear.
Performance: Generally good apart from scoring. Also finished strongly.

Man Utd away 9-0
Players missing: KWP, Vestergaard, Romeu, Diallo, Walcott, Salisu
Selection: Had to pick Ramsay at RB and Jankewitz as no other options aside from possibly Armstrong in CM but no real issue as that is Jankewitz preferred position. In game had no experienced sub options to change shape. No issue.
Players out of position: No
Poor decisions costing us: Yes. Awful VAR decision on Bednarek that probably lead to 9-0 rather than 7. Also seemingly incorrect offside vs Adams at 4-0.
Performance: Everything went against us from 75secs, a one off. VAR and lack of viable sub options was a factor in end scoreline plus Ramsay being targetted as he isnt PL quality.

Newcastle away 3-2
Players missing: KWP, Diallo, Walcott
Selection: Stephens at RB as no other options. No issue
Players out of position: Stephens, cost at least one goal
Poor decisions costing us: No
Performance: Poor, should have taken something from the game and I think would have done but for the McCarthy mistake giving them the 3-1 just before HT.

Wolves home 1-2
Players missing: Diallo, Walcott
Selection: No issue
Players out of position: None
Poor decisions costing us: Yes - very debatable handball given and another not
Performance: Strong first half, faded badly second half. Forced to change shape once KWP off injured as no cover within our 9 subs.

Conclusion:
We have been screwed by officials during this run, but performances have also not been good enough over 90mins to win games and we seem to let poor decisions affect us as if it then provides an excuse.

Ralph has usually picked sensible starting XIs but hasn't had good sub options to impact the game in the second half, particularly up front and in centre mid to add energy and defensively in the Utd game.

When cup games are added, the frequency of games has taken its toll as we have faded badly in 5 of the 6 games. Unfortunately we will have a couple more weeks with midweek games as some players look flogged and need a break which we cannot give them due to injuries or the fact we have few players to come in who are good enough.

Having a high intensity style, coupled with lots of midweek games and some players for whom we have no replacement isn't a good recipe, and there is a clear pattern of starting games well and with high intensity and then being limp in the second half with inexperienced subs making little impact.

Not having cover for KWP has been a major factor with each of Ramsay, JWP and Stephens having poor games and conceding goals down that side. Injury to Diallo was very unfortunate for a few reasons. However, you cannot excuse a poor run simply because your RB is not available.

I don't see how Ralph is at fault. The only things that could be levelled at him are prioritising the cup which many want him to do, and playing key players in too many games (or players who are not used to it) leading to injuries for the likes of KWP, Diallo, Walcott, Romeu.

The PL is ruthless and will expose any weakness and it might get worse before it gets better as the problems will remain if KWP misses more games. 

Deciding in the summer to go with Vokins and Valery as full back cover was an error. Not rectifying that in January has compounded it.

Good summary, spot the singleton on Valentine’s Day. 

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supersonic

supersonic

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We've had some pretty poor decisions go against us and bad luck with I juries, but I think Ralph is more to blame than you are letting on.

For example, the fact we seem to have only one way of playing, with no plan B for when it doesn't work is on the manager and can't be blamed on officials/injuries.

The fact we seem so mentally fragile than we capitulate whenever put under any sort of pressure, is on the manager and can't be blamed on officials/injuries.

The fact we can't seem to break down teams that come and put men behind the ball week after week is on the manager and can't be blamed on officials/injuries.

The fact we seem to go ahead and then sit back and invite pressure, especially at the start of the second half is on the manager and can't be blamed on officials/injuries.

The fact we continue to play McCarthy who looks totally shot of confidence and it's rubbing off on the defence when we have a back-up keeper who has kept four clean sheets in as many games and looks solid is on the manager and can't be blamed on officials/injuries.

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