Shroppie

Often travel alone form Shropshire and meet up in Soton. Driving by myself today, leaving in 30 mins.

Published odds now give us a 72% probability of automatic by at least a clear point - down from 89% before the weekend but still good if you consider WHU's probability of being clear of Saints is only 20%. Bit concerning that the probability of finishing level on points has gone up to 8%, and we can't be sure any more that we'll have the better GD. But the important thing is it's still in oiur own hands. Every time we can match or beat Hammers results, things can only get better. COYR!

I'd agree with that. And, if we can win, the psychological boost over WHU is very significant. Suddenly, if they then lose, it's as good as over for them. But I'm not counting chickens. If, Heaven forbid, we lose tonight and Hoofers win, they get the momentum and pressure's on for us vs Posh.

No we're not, but it will help!

And of course no other posts on this thread are based on subjective estimates of probability. My guesses were actually a rough average of the others on this thread, so not so arbitrary. And although I'll happily rework it with published odds, don't confuse odds with probabilities. Probabilities are best estimates of likely outcomes. Odds are what make money for bookies.

Not sure how I would class myself but Mrs Shroppie rarely goes to games but had only seen one defeat ever (Stoke away c2008). And she's coming tomorrow.

As a statistician with time on his hands this week, I finally gave in to creating a spreadsheet for all 6561 possible outcomes of the remaining ganes for Saints and Hoofers. (Didn't bother bringing Reading into it - would like to finish top but WHU are realistically the team to finish above if we are to get automatic). I've asssigned realistic, and probably pessimistic, (IMO) probabilities to all games and come up with an 89% probability of promotion by a clear point or 93% if we accept that GD will stay better. Which confirms what I already thought - nearly there but not yet nailed-on, and work to be done. Dramatic how probabilities change if I put in losses to Reading and Posh - then not much better than 50%. But, in the famous words, it's just a bit of fun using my guesses for the games, which were: Saints v Reading W 30%, D 40%, L 30% WHU v Brighton W 50%, 30%, 20% Saints v Posh W 50%, D 30%, L 20% WHU v Brissle C W 80%, D 10%, L 10% Saints v Boro W 40%, D 30%, L 30% WHU v Leicester W 60%, D 20%, L 20% Saints v Coventry W 70%, D 20%, L 10% WHU v Ull W 60%, D 20%, L 20% Would happily rerun it with other probabilities, but won't be near the internet over the weekend. It'll be simpler by then anyway!

I'm not that worried about the result. It's more and more unlikely that we'll need to finish above Reading rather than WHU to go up, so the psychological damage to the Hoofers seeing 2nd place 6 pts away now for me outweighs the threat to us winning the league. Much as I'd love to finish top, being in the top two is far more important. Although it's not critical, think it's very important for the last games for us to get at least a draw on Friday and hold onto top spot. Think it'll be a cracking game between the two best teams in the league. And how I hope that Brighton can take their frustration from tonight out on the hoofers.

Any point in trying monks?

Technically, if they lose we need two wins, but GD probably means a draw for them is the same.

Did anyone else have the slightest thought that Palace won't be too disappointed to have done us a favour at their London rival's expense?

Now we need 9 points less whatever WHU manage to drop against Brum. I never thought I would say it, but come on Birmingham! Grreat platform for Reading game too and sounds like we are getting the passing game together again at last.

Ull 2 Boro 1

We haven't won yet.

Brissle 2 1 Coventry

I'll tell you at full time.

Lee Holmes scores for Swindon

There is no statistic whatsoever. Do not tempt fate.

I claim the goal. Came straight after a tactical switch to follow on the laptop instead of i-phone. Great move.

Lucky pee time.

No sign of Puncheon. Injured or out of favour?

Thanks

Who's on the bench?

Still think we may see more wholesale changes. NA did it at the end of last season when there were two games in quick succession - it's a squad game. May see any or all of Butterfield, Harding, Chaplow, Puncheon, Barnard and possibly even Martin for Fonte, who looks tired, and a youngster or two on the bench. Big risk maybe, but maybe the challenge to step up and do it for the squad could work.

I still don't do guessing results. Until the points we get + points WHU drop = 12, we're not up. Control the controllables. We need 12 points to be sure. If we get help, fair enough but don't count on it.