
Sheaf Saint
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Everything posted by Sheaf Saint
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Global warming really is happening... (well, duh!)
Sheaf Saint replied to 1976_Child's topic in The Lounge
Yes, I like it too. It appears to be a thoroughly well researched paper. Have you even read it? I ask because the study appears to prove the exact opposite of the point you are trying to make... "Abstract We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes. Conclusions... Using the IF concept we were able to confirm the inherent one-way causality between human activities and global warming, as during the last 150 years the increasing anthropogenic radiative forcing is driving the increasing global temperature, a result that cannot be inferred from traditional time delayed correlation or ordinary least square regression analysis. Natural forcing (solar forcing and volcanic activities) contributes only marginally to the global temperature dynamics during the last 150 years. Human influence, especially via CO2 radiative forcing, has been detected to be significant since about the 1960s. This provides an independent statistical confirmation of the results from process based modelling studies. Investigation of the temperature simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble is largely in agreement with the conclusion drawn from the observational data. However on very long time scales (800,000 years) the IF is only significant in the direction from air temperature to CO2. This supports the idea that the feedback of GHGs to temperature changes seems to be much slower than the fast response of temperature to changes in GHGs48. The spatial explicit analysis strongly indicates that the increasing anthropogenic forcing is causing very differing effects regionally with some regions in the southern hemisphere showing large IF values. Regions of significant IF do coincide with regions having stronger than average recent warming trends. Our observational data-based study, therefore, not only provides complementary support for the results from global circulation modelling, but also calls for attention for further research in regions of increased sensitivity to the forcing resulting from anthropogenic activities." If you think this piece offers "slam dunk, scientific proof" that the theory of AGW is false, then you are even stranger than I ever previously thought. Edit: OK, I see now on re-reading that you were attempting to be sarcastic, and you highlighted a small section of a study that explained some uncertainties in the modelling system to show how flawed the research is. But you still completely ignored the fact that the conclusions drawn by the authors of the paper are in direct contradiction to your main argument. -
Global warming really is happening... (well, duh!)
Sheaf Saint replied to 1976_Child's topic in The Lounge
So you can't provide any data to prove your assertion that there has been no warning over the last 15 years then. And instead start with the childish mocking, right on cue. -
Global warming really is happening... (well, duh!)
Sheaf Saint replied to 1976_Child's topic in The Lounge
Now if you could provide some verified data to support your claim, rather than just an unsubstantiated article from the BBC news, we can have a sensible, reasoned debate. -
Global warming really is happening... (well, duh!)
Sheaf Saint replied to 1976_Child's topic in The Lounge
Certainly... https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally Edit: Here's the NASA data in graph form... -
Global warming really is happening... (well, duh!)
Sheaf Saint replied to 1976_Child's topic in The Lounge
I would say that his credibility was blown when he copied and pasted a load of utter codsh!t from the website of the Association of British Drivers and tried to present it as proof that climate change is just a hoax. Now he is citing the BBC as a data source when asked to support his claim of no warming for the last 15 years. If he is true to form, he will shortly start hurling childish abusive insults at anyone who dares to produce evidence which shows how wrong his claims are. -
Global warming really is happening... (well, duh!)
Sheaf Saint replied to 1976_Child's topic in The Lounge
Can you please provide a source for this? All the information I can find from verified sources contradicts this, so I would be very interested to know what data you are basing this on. -
I only caught the last 20 minutes. What was Davis' goal like?
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Phew.
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Disappointing, but not the least bit surprising. Every club has its fair share of total d!ckhead fans, and we are no exception.
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VVD coming on then.
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Mental. Was blatantly a foul on Long.
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"I think the British do best when they apply a little starch to their upper lips" Does he actually realise what century this is?
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All you need to know about Rees-Mogg... https://www.facebook.com/hazad31/videos/10155105290707017/
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Personally I would be very happy if he became the next Tory leader. As if May isn't already doing a good enough job of convincing people how hopelessly out of touch with reality they are, this guy would take it to a whole new level.
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Done. This one was much less clumsily put together than the last one, and I was happy to complete it. Good luck with your project.
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That's because you're only a registered user and not a paid-up full member.
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Going to Spurs for £38m according to SSN
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Sam Gallagher - Joins Blackburn: Official
Sheaf Saint replied to Sergei Gotsmanov's topic in The Saints
Given 'Arry's prior reputation of being able to demotivate and ruin our youth players, I can't help but feel this is a very bad move for him and for us. -
Not seen any of the post match interviews yet, but I already know that Bilic will be raging about the ref. Lee Mason is usually pretty awful, but the only major decision he got wrong today was not sending off Noble as well.
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Just seen the first half highlights. How can Arnautovic have the nerve to complain about the red card. He knew exactly what he was doing. Eyes on Stephens instead of on the ball. Cynical and blatant. The Tadic one was clumsy but not intentional so yellow was probably the right call. And Noble never seems to get penalised for those awful tackles.
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Terrorist Attacks - WARNING: CONTAINS DISTRESSING IMAGES
Sheaf Saint replied to sadoldgit's topic in The Lounge
Really, it's so unlike you to jump to prejudiced conclusions before the facts are released... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40930898 "The driver of the BMW was arrested after the vehicle rammed the terrace of the cafe in Sept-Sorts, near the town of La Ferté-sous-Jouarre. An interior ministry spokesman told the BBC the driver was 32 and French. While his actions are said to have been deliberate, the incident is not being treated as a terror attack. Authorities said the driver had tried to kill himself on Sunday. It appears he had no previous criminal record. According to RTL radio, he told police he had weapons in the car." -
I just watched the documentary on BBC2 about the assassination of Kim Jong Nam, simply because Kim Jong Un was paranoid about the idea that, as the eldest (though illegitimate) son of Kim Jong Il, he could pose a threat to the solidity of his leadership. Fascinating insight into a truly horrific ruling regime. Also, I decided today to do a little reading into the history of Korea, and more specifically the Korean war in the early 50s that split the country into the two states, as I realise I know very little about it other than it being mainly a front for the wider conflict between the US and the Soviet Union. It's actually little wonder that NK hates America so much to this day, given that the USAF pretty much flattened the entire country with its bombing campaign.
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Didn't come across on the TV feed. Sounded deathly quiet most of the time on the stream I watched.
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Got to hand it to Swansea. They were utterly useless as an attacking force but they kept their shape at the back and defended very well. Kept our players most likely to score quiet and gambled on the rest being as profligate as they were last season. Seems like they did their homework on us. Overall though, I thought we were much more adventurous and entertaining than we were for most of last season, so I'm not downhearted by the performance at all.