SaintBobby

I don't think it's just pre season, its the players gelling. Our ideal starting eleven would now probably include 5 or 6 players who have signed in the last few weeks (2 of whom have yet to play at all). This - combined with the turmoil and fiasco of pre season - means we're likely to be much better in, say, December than we are now. I'm expecting us to average about 1.5 point a game over the next six or seven games, but to be displaying top two/three form from Xmas onwards.

If you expect us to get relegated, you can get about 3/1 on it. Put your money where your mouth is. You can quadruple your money in 8 months. You're speaking as if relegation is a 70% chance, not a 20% chance. Most Saints fans - and the money markets - think you're wrong.

Coyrrrrrrrrrrrrr

badly, badly want these three points...

If we ARE above the relegation zone in November that would be a miracle, and would mean we're probably on target for the play-offs. I'd expect us still to be in the bottom three at Xmas. And I wouldn't be panicking as long as we were within a few points of safety.

Agreed. We will probably bring in 2 or 3 new players this week - whether loans or transfers. By September, we will be an almost totally different team to last season. New CB, RB and LB (plus Thomas who didn't figure last year), two new midfielders (and probably one or two more to come), new striker (and one more to come). Our starting XI will be unrecognisable.

If we're within 5 points of safety at Xmas, I'll be satisfied. And I think we will be. There's a lot of dross in this division - including us at the moment - but we have the manager and budget to improve, unlike most other teams in League One.

need 3 points

Some other countries (Malaysia springs to mind) don't allow dual citizenship. Not sure if this applies to Tunisia, but could affect his tax/assets/international call-up position if he were obliged to ditch his Tunisian citizenship.

Good point on defending. I've always been surprised that Saints seem to put 10 or even 11 players on defensive duties when we give away a corner.

I was there at Swindon and think it may be the worst Saints performance I've ever seen. But I'm not panicking yet. Not by a long way. I think we'e going to be cr@p for a little while yet. Lack of fitness, lack of cohesion, players who don't want to here, players with zero confidence. To be honest, if we show "relegation form" between now and Xmas, I wouldn't be surprised (i.e. about 25 points from our the first half of the season). If we're on +15 points by Christmas day, I'd expect us to survive comfortably. The second half of the season should see us showing promotion form (c. 2 points a game), which would leave us on about 61 points.

I don't even get the point anymore...is there a need for SaintsAid? It seems the rough equivalent would be for every person in the third world to become a millionaire, yet for Bob Geldof still to organise a concert to save Africa....

Why, oh why, oh why...do so many people on this forum say "here here"??? It's "hear hear" FFS..

They wont go out of business. But they face administration, relegation and hurtling down the league. Comparing the two clubs isn't just about where we are now....its about the direction we're heading. I honestly believe that we will be a division or two above Portsmouth in 4 years time.

So interesting to read the response. I agree with about half of you. My take on it: Quite pleased. Well, consider it satisfactory. 6.5 out of ten overall. If the gaps and problems are obvious to me, they will be even more obvious to AP. My man of the match was Schneiderlin. Interestingly, I thought it was a Wotton misplaced pass that led to the build-up to the Millwall penalty, but I was obviously wrong given the posts above. The back four looks fine to me - but little cover. The keeper is magnificient, natch. We actually have an embarrassment of riches in midfield, but I'm not sure how they should be fielded. Lallana was awful IMHO, but is not a winger, and definitiely not a left-winger. Gobern looked good when he came on. Not much additional evidence on Thomson, but he is still my "one to watch" for the season. The frontline are poor in my view. Saga is strong in getting the ball on his chest, but his first touch was poor. He did some okay running off the ball, but I felt Schneiderlin was the only player who could find him over more than ten yards. Paterson okay, but nothing special - little anticipation and nearly fluffed the goal (sorry, that sounds really harsh......) Overall, I think we'll be fine - but will end up about 12th -18th given the ten point deduction. Assume this is a rebuilding season, I'd like us to focus on the Johnstone Paint Trophy (god, how nerdy is that?). I think we're just 4 games from Wembley.....

Tough opening game. It will take some time for the team to gell, especially if a couple of new players come in. Milwall are one of the btter sides in this division - although they are probably the weakest side we have started a season against in 20+ years. I'd be happy with a point - and a good performance from Lallana, who might (just might) be our key man this season.

I agree. Actually, if 3 or 4 teams are way, way ahead of the rest, this suits us. I don't think we have any realistic chance of automatic promotion, so we want the race for the final play-off places to be amongst v mediocre teams with very modest points totals. I think we have a reasonable chance of chalking up 70 points (80, minus 10), but we need the 5th/6th/7th slots to be on low points totals for that to be enough to get us into the playoffs.

I hope they don't go bust, but their natural position is as a League 2 or Blue Square side. That will happen in the next five years or so.

Ain't that the truth. A nice bloke, and v committed to Saints, but possessed of appalling judgement in football politics.

was just trying to work that out....isn't it literally years ago? edit: did we beat Ipswich 3-0 away last season? When did we last win by 3 at home? vs. Tranmere 6-1 in the League Cup?

I doubt a close range tap-in in a friendly will do much to change anyone's mind. I'm pretty pro-Rasiak btw, but I hardly beileve this will change anyone's view (built up over dozens of matches) and neither should it. EDIT: see he's got a header too. Nice.

This is good news (I'm logging in from the USA, would be there otherwise)....seems AP may have got us into the habit of winning at the first attempt... Is the Hearts team a full-strength(ish) team?

Agree with this. But had Pinnacle not wasted five weeks, I thinkwe could have made a more serious effort of getting out of League One in a year. Who knows, we still might, but Lynam and his tyre-kicker friends have seriously compromised our chances. I'd certainly ban Lynam from St. Mary's for life.

I think you have a point, but I think we're on a two-season strategy to get out of League One, whereas I'm guessing that some of the others (Norwich?) are on a one season strategy. Obviously, I want to be "ambitious", "hit the ground running", "show intent", "build a winning mentality" (add other cliches at will) etc. But to be honest, the real test for me is whether we enter the 2010-2011 season as favourites to win League One. I don't rule out promotion this season, but think it's unlikely and should be treated as a "bonus". Certainly, if I was Liebherr, I'd be expecting AP to win L1 in 2011, and would have structured his deal (and transfer budget) accordingly...

I thought I admired his ambition for us to be "somewhere near the middle" by Xmas. But we actually need to do even better than this if we're to make the play-offs this season. We're scheduled to play 22 league games before 25th December. Looking at last season's table, mid-table is a return of 1.3 points per game. For Saints to get to 29 points by Xmas, we need - of course - to win 39 points on the pitch, which would imply us winning 1.77 points a game. If we kept that up over the season, we'd finish on 71 or 72 points (81 or 82 points minus 10). Last season, the last play-off place went to S****hope on 76 points. The season before, the sixth place team also got 76 points. And the year before that, it was 75 points. So we need to be averaging 1.87 (for a total of 85 or 86 points "on the pitch") points a game to scrape into the play-offs. Not impossible, but not easy. We essentially need to show automatic promotion form to win a play-off slot...and even if we get a play-off slot, we are odds against to go up. I reckon it's two seasons to get out of this division.