SaintBobby

I love this forum, I really do. But I do think it helps to show why fans should never run football clubs. We're too happy with things going right, and too prescriptive when things go wrong. If patience is a virtue, it's not one we show very often. As an aside though, has anyone, anywhere, actually called for "Pardew out" this season? Other than as pardoy?

I'm now looking ahead to each game expecting to win - rather than being prepared to accept a hypothetical Faustian pact for a draw. I wouldn't have "taken a point" at 2.59pm today - for the first time in ages at an away league game. I don't expect us to win all our remaining 33 games, obviously. But I'm starting to think something like W 20 D 5 L 8 is VERY realistic. That would mean 73 points and the play-offs.

I assume it was Mellis for Lallana as the last substitute? I know there were only seconds to go - but the official Oldham site's claim that Bialkowski came on to replace Lallana surely can't be right? http://www.oldhamathletic.co.uk/page/NewsUpdate/0,,10337~1829050,00.html

Very, very good result. And a riche vein of form to be sure. Keeps the play-off dream very much alive.

some worrying Oldham possession....

This is without doubt the worst radio commentary I have ever heard.

Jahidi sounds like he's having an off day.

Weymouth 0 Dover 1, for all those Saintsplayer subscribers whose real passion is Weymouth or Dover.....

I thought ML bought the club for c. 13 - 15 million. There wasn's £30m of pure debt - most of it was the mortage. Best guess is that Aviva and otehr creditors got about 50% of their claims.

Your congratulations are noted and accepted.

Interesting, but am not sure this stacks up. For Saints, we need to parcel out our "football" points and our "actual" points, due to the penalty. (so, at present, we have 15 of the former and 5 of the later). If we are on 39 points after 24 games, we will be CRUISING to the play-offs and will probably be odds-on for automatic promotion (even if we're only, say 9th in the actual league table). That's because we will have accrued 49 "football" points in 1/2 a season -and if we achieved that in the second half of the season, we'd end up on around 86-88 points. The best way to factor in our 10 point penalty, is to see it as something that needs to slowly erased over time rather than suddenly made-up in one quantum leap forward. In effect, we're going to have to do - on average - 0.2 points a game better than if we didn't have the penalty. The best way of charting our "real" progress is to take out the 10 point penalty which is (understandably) applied before a ball is kicked and just knock off 0.2 points from our total for every game we play (that will come out as a 9.2 deduction over the season - but that's fine, because we're very likely to have a superior goal difference to our closest competitors which is worth the other 0.8 of a point) In real terms, we are therefore on 12.4 points after 12 games. If replicated over the rest of the season, that leaves us hovering on the brink of relegation. But I think it's fair to say that games 7-12 are probably a better indicator of our future performances than games 1-6. We averaged 0.67 points from games 1-6, but have averaged 1.83 points from games 7-12. If we can keep up this average of 1.83, we'll end the season on about 67 points. Either in the play-offs, or just outside.

Yeah, I don't think your response contradicts anything I've said - or even addresses the most salient points. I don't think Pearson is a "great" manager - but I think anyone arguing his strengths has better evidence from his time at Leicester than from his time at Saints. The 3/13 points comparitor just doesn't make any sense to me. But, to be honest, I think Pearson's stats over his short spell are better than the stats from Pardew's early weeks, in so far as such a comparison can be made at all. 3 wins out of 13 at the tail end of a season in a relegation fight in the CCC is very different to 3 wins out of 13 at the start of a (highly financed) League One campaign. Different circumstances, different problems, different challenges - but if really forced to measure up the 13 NP v the 13 AP games, I'd say the former was a better achievement (or a lesser failure) By way of comparison, I'm pretty sure we lost more games than we won under WGS and Chris Nicholl. But that was in the Premiership as one of the lesser clubs. The ask of Pardew in League One - with more financial support than any of our opponents - is (rightly) that we win far, far more games than we lose. A record of W 33% D 33% L 33% would be a triumph in the Premier League. Possibly even count as vaguely tolerable in the CCC. But would be a dramatic and embarrassing under-performance in L1. The real straw man here is the notion that there's a contingent of fans who want Pardew sacked. I'd say that's probably the opinion of about 1% of Saints fans. Maybe less. Many more, however, will consider that a record of W 3 D 6 L 3 is a rather poor start to our L1 campaign - notwithstanding the recent improvement in both performances and results. And I don't think it's madness to ask "how much time should Pardew be given?" as a hypothetical question on a rambling message board. FWIW, my own view on this is: 1. If by Xmas, it looks as if we are probably (i.e. at odds on) heading for relegation, the board should sack him and get in a new manager before the January transfer window. 2. If at the end of the season, we are no more than a mediocre L1 team (i.e. W 15 D 16 L 15) with no obvious signs of improvement and are unlikely to enter the 2010/11 season as bookies' favourites (or maybe 2nd favourites), we should change managers in the Summer. 3. If we are not promoted in 2010-11 (or are clearly not on target for promotion after c. 12 games), he should be sacked. But, I'm pretty damned confident none of these three scenarios will come to pass. I'd put the chances at something like: Scenario 1: 2% Scenario 2: 10% Scenario 3: 10% So, I reckon there's a c.78% that AP will be leading us into the CCC - and probably beyond.

It's a ridiculous comparison between Pardew and Pearson. I'm not sure Pearson proved he was a great manager with Saints - the Leicester evidence is much more compelling. Usually, comparisons can't really be made over 13 games. The playing squad, the opponents and the divisions are different. Additionally, it's different folk for different strokes. In some circumstances, handling the egos of aged pros is crucial. In others, bringing on youngsters is the key. In others, making sharp signings to rebuild the team is what is needed. I think anyone who believes that a comparison between Pardew and Perason is remotely scientifically possible, based on about a dozen games in charge of Saints, is a retard when it comes to football. The cliche that it's a results-business is true. The line between success and failure is tiny. Had we drawn 3-3 with Sheff Utd rather than winning 3-2, Pearson's reputation amongst Saints fans would be massively lower. To some degree, his high regard is down to an amazing and flukey Richard Wright save from Matthew Kilgallon when we were 1-0 down in that game - irrespective of his skills in man management, geeing up the pros etc. Similarly, if Wotte had kept us up (and if we hadn't gone into admin, we weren't THAT far away), he'd be rated a lot higher. I imagine Pardew will become a legend if we zoom up the Championship in 2 years time. If we lose the 2011 L1 play-off final on penalties though, he'll be derided. The difference could come down to one dodgy off-side decision either way. From my perspective, most of the last dozen Saints managers score somewhere between 5 and 6 out of ten. Strachan being the exception.

Agree with above advice. I have STs with my mum and my Mrs. Usually the Mrs. dispenses them randomly, so two times out of three I'm walking in with an adult ticket of the wrong gender. No eyebrows raised. You'll be fine. And I agree with the bums on seats thing. Have been ****ed off to see season tickets lent to Man Utd fans at sell outs, but given there will be c. 12,000 empty seats and you've paid for two of them, let your friends have them.

I think we should aim for the play offs, but I don't think it should be considered a failure if we don't get there.

I'm absolutely convinced that a couple of merry, p i s s ed up Saints fans were singing this before the Charlton game. Am pretty much guessing at some of the finer points of the lyrics: (To tune of the Hokey Cokey) He puts his right foot in He put his left foot out In out, in out, he shakes them all about He plays for Saints and he scores us goals That's what he's all about Oh oh Papa Waigo Oh oh Papa Waigo Oh oh Papa Waigo Left foot, right foot, score score score. Well, you had to be there...but I liked it.

I've only see him play once - at the pre-season game v Newport. He was pretty impressive. Tall, strong and good at getting forward. He took a penalty and scored too.

So, although winning their first six (or so) games obviously helped, it wasn't decisive.

I really like the way AP acknowledges us fans. It's easy to do and words are cheap- but this isn't a feature of all our recent managers. I appreciate it - and his implicit acknowledgement that he and the team really need to deliver for us.

It's seems to be a fact in modern football that every manager is within about six games of the sack. Perhaps not Ferguson or Wenger, but probably c. 90 of the rest. My own view is that if it becomes obvious we're hurtling towards relegation with Pardew then we need to review things in January. Fortunately, this seems not to be the case. If he fails to get us promoted next season though, that's probably curtains.

The difference between our position and that of Sunderland/Palace is that we were mathemtaically certain to be bottom for the first few games - and practically certain to be bottom for 7 or 8 games. We were likely to be in the relegation zone for around a dozen games, even if we'd being showing consistent championship-winning form right from the start of the season. In football terms, we're now 11th and in terms of form, we're much better than this. If you're a pessimist, you'll probably think that out form over the next 34 games will be the same as over our first twelve games. This would leave us on the cusp of relegation, with about 58 points, minus 10. But surely even a cynic expects things to improve. Since the start of the season, we've added Lambert, Waigo, Hammond, Trotman, Jaidi and Connelly to the squad. Additionally, Schneiderlin and Lallana seem to have really found their feet. Games 7 - 12 surely give a better indication or our future performances than games 1-6.

68 points from the remaining 34 games should be possible. That's something like Win 21, Draw 5, Lose 8. As the OP points out, we may scrape in with less than that. We definitely want the top two or three teams to run away with it and for it to be very tight for 5th, 6th, 7th.

I thought we finished with a pretty standard 4-4-2. It certainly wans't "total football". Torquay were passing the ball, we were lumping it forward.

Just got back to London after the game. Truly abysmal performance, but am obviously lifted by having got through to the next round (I actually really care about this competition and think we can win it). My missus will testify that I was considerably more foul-mouthed at this match than I have ever been before, this was because: (a) we were playing worse than a pub team from minute 20 to minute 45 and (b) the Kingsland North was so populated with unaccompanied chavvy 13-15 year olds, at the very bottom of the food chain, that I lost all sense of social responsibility. I thought Waigo was better than okay - but am surprised that he has won MotM so decisively. I voted for Lambert who I thought was 100% committed, very brave and utterly tireless. But I'm worried we're giving him too much of a thankless task. The problem is that lumping the ball up to Rickie DOES work (sort of). He challenges for everything and gets the ball down from his chest to his feet well - although inevitably with his back to goal. But we aren't getting the best out of him if we expect too much of him. I'm leaning towards Lallana being our second centre forward. Particular low points for me today were the central defence and central midfield - both appalling. And our (complete lack of) movement off the ball was pathetic. The penalties were quite superb though.

Schneiderlin. Class act.