SaintBobby

Pedant alert. I think 4 teams get relegated, so we need to keep our eyes fixed on 20th place. I think point 3 is a bit optimistic, though. If we're 12th by Xmas, we are cruising to the play-offs. Put another way, the more games we've played, the less the ten point burden affects our league position. At present, we've effectively been docked 0.9 points per game. But by the end of the seaon, it will average out at just over 0.2 points per game. This means our rise up the table is more likely to be exponential than steady. If we're tenth with 8-10 games to go (e.g. in March), we're probably a fair bet to make the play-offs.

I think the play-offs are a long shot, but I'm bemused about people saying "we'd have to show championship form" to get into the play-offs. I've been pretty forgiving about our mediocre start (well, our dire start...which has now become okay-ish). I do think the absence of pre-season and - more pertinently - building a largely new team takes time to come good. It looks like it's starting to. But from hereon, I want to be clear about one thing: I expect championship-winning form. Okay, if Leeds and Charlton average 2.2 points and we're averaging 2.19, I can live with that. But I can find no reason why Saints should not be averaging at least 2 points a game for the rest of the season. This is the third division FFS, not the Champions League. If we don't quite make it this season, our target should be win the division with comfort next season - with around 100 points.

are you moving again next week to guarantee another 3 points?

5 points from 7 games is NOT the haul of points I was hoping for or expecting. It falls well below expectations. I probably would have expected 10 points, and hoped for 12. That said, I remain an apologist and will continue to be an apologist if we don't win on Saturday. Firstly, I don't know what the alternative is (no one is saying sack Pardew from what I can see). Secondly, we are moving - steadily - in the right direction. Thirdly, we haven't had the rub of the green so far, we probably "deserve" more than the 5 points we've got. I want a win on Saturday just like everyone else. But I'm still at a stage where I care more about the performance. If, say, we draw 1-1 (again!), but have 3 clear cut penalty shouts turned down, hit the woodwork six times and they score a flukey goal from their only shot, I still won't be panicking. I'll still be an apologist. A frustrated one, but an apologist nonetheless.

I very much agree with the original post. I'm not even as impatient as Bridgey. I think it quite likely that we're still in the relegation zone come Jan 1st. I wouldn't mind this as long as our form is still improving and we're not adrift. To eradicate the 11 point gap between us and safety would be quite an achievement in 16 games - requiring us to get around 30 points. Not impossible by any means, but no need for despair if we don't quite achieve that haul.

I think the time at which we could expect to see an improvement is about now. Although, obviously our next game is a tough one. I wouldn't want to praise our performances against Colchester, Brentford or Stockport - but I think they were a step up from the dire stuff on show at Huddersfield and Swindon. I'm only saying we've gone from a 2/10 to a 4/10, but that at least counts as progress! In my darker moments, I fear another relegation battle this season. But more realistically, while I think we'll still be in the bottom three at Xmas, we should pull away in the New Year. Scrapping to stay up would constitute a miserable under-performance (again) and relegation would eb disastrous. I think we'll end up somewhere around 12th-14th.

I don't think it's just pre season, its the players gelling. Our ideal starting eleven would now probably include 5 or 6 players who have signed in the last few weeks (2 of whom have yet to play at all). This - combined with the turmoil and fiasco of pre season - means we're likely to be much better in, say, December than we are now. I'm expecting us to average about 1.5 point a game over the next six or seven games, but to be displaying top two/three form from Xmas onwards.

If you expect us to get relegated, you can get about 3/1 on it. Put your money where your mouth is. You can quadruple your money in 8 months. You're speaking as if relegation is a 70% chance, not a 20% chance. Most Saints fans - and the money markets - think you're wrong.

Coyrrrrrrrrrrrrr

badly, badly want these three points...

If we ARE above the relegation zone in November that would be a miracle, and would mean we're probably on target for the play-offs. I'd expect us still to be in the bottom three at Xmas. And I wouldn't be panicking as long as we were within a few points of safety.

Agreed. We will probably bring in 2 or 3 new players this week - whether loans or transfers. By September, we will be an almost totally different team to last season. New CB, RB and LB (plus Thomas who didn't figure last year), two new midfielders (and probably one or two more to come), new striker (and one more to come). Our starting XI will be unrecognisable.

If we're within 5 points of safety at Xmas, I'll be satisfied. And I think we will be. There's a lot of dross in this division - including us at the moment - but we have the manager and budget to improve, unlike most other teams in League One.

need 3 points

Some other countries (Malaysia springs to mind) don't allow dual citizenship. Not sure if this applies to Tunisia, but could affect his tax/assets/international call-up position if he were obliged to ditch his Tunisian citizenship.

Good point on defending. I've always been surprised that Saints seem to put 10 or even 11 players on defensive duties when we give away a corner.

I was there at Swindon and think it may be the worst Saints performance I've ever seen. But I'm not panicking yet. Not by a long way. I think we'e going to be cr@p for a little while yet. Lack of fitness, lack of cohesion, players who don't want to here, players with zero confidence. To be honest, if we show "relegation form" between now and Xmas, I wouldn't be surprised (i.e. about 25 points from our the first half of the season). If we're on +15 points by Christmas day, I'd expect us to survive comfortably. The second half of the season should see us showing promotion form (c. 2 points a game), which would leave us on about 61 points.

I don't even get the point anymore...is there a need for SaintsAid? It seems the rough equivalent would be for every person in the third world to become a millionaire, yet for Bob Geldof still to organise a concert to save Africa....

Why, oh why, oh why...do so many people on this forum say "here here"??? It's "hear hear" FFS..

They wont go out of business. But they face administration, relegation and hurtling down the league. Comparing the two clubs isn't just about where we are now....its about the direction we're heading. I honestly believe that we will be a division or two above Portsmouth in 4 years time.

So interesting to read the response. I agree with about half of you. My take on it: Quite pleased. Well, consider it satisfactory. 6.5 out of ten overall. If the gaps and problems are obvious to me, they will be even more obvious to AP. My man of the match was Schneiderlin. Interestingly, I thought it was a Wotton misplaced pass that led to the build-up to the Millwall penalty, but I was obviously wrong given the posts above. The back four looks fine to me - but little cover. The keeper is magnificient, natch. We actually have an embarrassment of riches in midfield, but I'm not sure how they should be fielded. Lallana was awful IMHO, but is not a winger, and definitiely not a left-winger. Gobern looked good when he came on. Not much additional evidence on Thomson, but he is still my "one to watch" for the season. The frontline are poor in my view. Saga is strong in getting the ball on his chest, but his first touch was poor. He did some okay running off the ball, but I felt Schneiderlin was the only player who could find him over more than ten yards. Paterson okay, but nothing special - little anticipation and nearly fluffed the goal (sorry, that sounds really harsh......) Overall, I think we'll be fine - but will end up about 12th -18th given the ten point deduction. Assume this is a rebuilding season, I'd like us to focus on the Johnstone Paint Trophy (god, how nerdy is that?). I think we're just 4 games from Wembley.....

Tough opening game. It will take some time for the team to gell, especially if a couple of new players come in. Milwall are one of the btter sides in this division - although they are probably the weakest side we have started a season against in 20+ years. I'd be happy with a point - and a good performance from Lallana, who might (just might) be our key man this season.

I agree. Actually, if 3 or 4 teams are way, way ahead of the rest, this suits us. I don't think we have any realistic chance of automatic promotion, so we want the race for the final play-off places to be amongst v mediocre teams with very modest points totals. I think we have a reasonable chance of chalking up 70 points (80, minus 10), but we need the 5th/6th/7th slots to be on low points totals for that to be enough to get us into the playoffs.

I hope they don't go bust, but their natural position is as a League 2 or Blue Square side. That will happen in the next five years or so.

Ain't that the truth. A nice bloke, and v committed to Saints, but possessed of appalling judgement in football politics.