SaintBobby

You're not just saying that Wigan CAN beat Arsenal (everyone agrees it's possible). You are saying they definitely WILL beat Arsenal. That's the only feasible way that 39 points won't be enough for Saints to stay up. And you claim to be utterly certain that 39 points won't be enough. Football is, of course, unpredictable. So, to be utterly certain that Wigan will beat Arsenal away on Tuesday night is a bit weird.

Like I say, backsliding like crazy. I've always said 39 will be enough. You've slid from 41-43 to 41 and now to 40 (I assume you're accepting 40 is enough - forecasting a 12-0 defeat would be very odd). By Tuesday, you may well be accepting it's 38-39. So at least you're backsliding in the right direction, I guess.

Initially it was 41-43. Then it was 41. You now think 40 may "just be enough" (you therefore think we might lose one of our remaining games 12-0, as that's the only way that 40 won't mathematically be enough). With this extraordinary level of backsliding week-by-week, you may even have settled on an accurate figure by the end of the season.

They've drifted just a little to about 2/7, but I agree this is unlikely to impact too much on the league.

They are 10/1 - sounds about right (their chances are about 9%) Would you like to comment on whether Saints still need 41-43 points to be safe?

To be clear, I'm only referring to Saints here. Newcastle could also go down on 40 points. If Aston Villa lose to Wigan by a single goal and Newcastle get 2 draws, Villa will probably be ahead of Newcastle on goals scored.

I'm actually happy with our present CMs - Cork and Morgan are a great partnership. Steve Davis is pretty good too and I'd hope JW-P will improve with each passing year. I'm not against adding a squad player or two here, but I don't think we need to seriously splash the cash on a new centre midfield.

39 is enough for Wigan if any of Sunderland, Norwich and Newcastle lose all their remaining games. Or quite possibly if Norwich or Newcastle pick up just one point from their remaining two games. I agree that 39 points is almost certainly enough for Saints to stay ahead of Wigan, especially considering goal difference. In fact, it's likely that we'd have been safe on just 38 points, which would mean (in retrospect) that we confirmed our survival on April 13th with our 1-1 draw against West Ham!

It does seem that a draw would be pretty damned acceptable to both sides. It would leave Sunderland hoping that Wigan don't beat both Arsenal and Villa, but that would seem to be a reasonable assumption.

A draw against Sunderland would not leave us relying on others. We would just need to rely on ourselves not to lose by more than 12-0 at home to Stoke. Still think we need 41-43 points?

Updated following the Villa v Chelsea match. To all intents and purposes, 40 points now guarantee safety. Anyone who says or has said we will need 41 points or more is now, essentially, wrong.

A draw makes us safe too (unless we lose our remaining games 7-0)

I really think 13-0 defeats can be discounted. It's more likely that Southampton will be nuked by North Korea.

That's basically untrue. Bookmakers hate outsiders winning. They can get an edge on 1/3 or 6/1 but they loathe 100/1 shots coming in. The reason Saints odds on relegation are so tight is they are able to sell to bedwetting Saints fans at 60/1 or 100/1 when the real odds are about 1,000/1. That's pure gravy for the bookies and they can cover those sort of cretinous bets.

Great poll.I wish the club ran it like this.

Relegation is a serious business. Fair play to you, mate, you were one of the few to stand up and point out the truth. What do you think we should do when you're proven right and the inevitable happens? Cos the rest of us are going to look like utter schmucks. Help me here. Please?

that's 2 minutes of my life I'm not getting back. Anyone who has to start a thread wondering how to contact the Liebherr family is clearly a total, dribbling cretin. They are not a difficult family or company to track down. May I recommend something called "Google"? HTH.

Next step...we want Chelsea to beat Villa. If that happens, then a draw at Sunderland fully confirms our survival, with 40 points. If it doesn't, a win at Sunderland confirms our survival anyway. Even if Villa win and we lose, we are still nearly certain to stay up. (or if you prefer an alternative view...."we're doomed, and will go down unless we get at least 41 points!") Well, you pays ur money and takes your choice....

If we keep the League Cup, I've always liked the idea of including the Scottish league teams (and maybe even the Welsh Premier Division at a pinch) and making it a British Cup. Obviously, no point in having Torquay v Inverness in round 2 - so keep the nations separated until, say, round 5. But Ranger v Newcastle, Celtic v Saints, Hearts v Villa etc would make it a much better cup competition.

Quite right.

Agreed. It is extremely unlikely that Wigan will secure more than 39 points. Their chances of winning both their remaining games is about 22/1. If they don't,, then Saints are safe with 39 points. Even if Wigan get more than 39 points, Norwich might fail to pick up two more points (about 50-50). Even if both Wigan and Norwich get more than 39 points, Newcastle might fail to pick up two more points (again, about 50-50). The chance that the team in 18th will be on more than 39 points is now about 80/1 or 90/1.

So, to be clear, you think Wigan will beat Arsenal on Tuesday? Can you just answer that simple question?

Correct! By way of analogy: - Chance I toss a coin and it comes up heads VERY POSSIBLE - Chance I throw a dice and it gives a number from 3 to 6 PROBABLE - Chance I throw the dice again and it comes up 5 or 6 POSSIBLE - Chance I toss a coin again and it comes up heads again VERY POSSIBLE - Chance I throw a dice again and don't get a 1 or 2 PROBABLE Chance of all these things happening: under 4% (1 in 27 to be accurate....and the chance of Saints relegation is about 1 in 270 or even less)

Oh, come on. It would be a major surprise! Look, it's not impossible but a Wigan win would be very surprising - and would also probably mean Arsenal fail to qualify for the Champions League.

No. Not at all. The pessimists need to believe that Wigan will beat both Arsenal and Villa and that Saints will probably fail to collect a single point from our last two games. The Wigan v Arsenal game is totally irrelevant (to Southampton) if: 1. Wigan then fail to beat Villa OR 2. Saints beat Sunderland OR 3. Saints beat Stoke OR 4. Saints get two draws against Sunderland and Stoke OR 5. Saints get only one more point and Villa lose at home to Chelsea. The chance of at least one of these five things happening is pretty high, I'd say.