NickG

This thread isn't predicting we will win the league, or finish top whatever, it is to appreciate and enjoy the achievement of the start of our season. So not "spouting" anything! I agree with rest of your post (apart from moron, I'm far from that, but will admit to being excitable about saints - is that meant to be an insult? Our finish has much to do with how other teams do, I can't see Liverpool, Everton or spurs matching their last seasons - maybe not Man U. Don't think your prediction is unrealistic, really hard to predict this season. 8th would be a good season, I keep telling myself that but fear my heart is started to see higher as attainable! Bookies seem to have us finishing 6th. No, I don't realise that , as its not true. I haven't predicted our next games, don't generally go in for game prediction as don't like balancing my optimism with expecting a win when I go. You may have got yourself confused, again, with posts in motd thread? There was discussion about what's will happen over next few months and whether we will drop. A poster gave their prediction. I gave example showing we don't need to beat top teams, and can perform a lot worse and start new year in good position. You seem to want to jump on my posts for some reason. Have I offended you? Anyway don't want to get personal but you've missed your target last two attempts. Last year, arsenal lost away to Chelsea, Liverpool, man city, man u and Everton.letting in 21 goals. Only one they beat at home was Liverpool, so one win out of ten. Was same year before, one win, again Liverpool. Year before, a little better but lost to man u (twice) Liverpool, Man C, spurs. Year before they again lost most of tough games. Spurs finished 4th despite losses to man city (twice) man u ( twice) arsenal and Everton. Draws in some other hard games. Teams can finish high without beating top sides. We have been unusually consistent against the others so don't "need " to beat the big teams, if we continue. Will we? Haven't got a clue but we are better prepared than last season 1) I don't think we have half a squad and manager wishing they were somewhere else 2) think we have better manager 3) definately more depth - used Jos last season, now have Gardos., Toby cover for RB, Targett rather than Fox for LB, if Tadic/Pelle straight swaps, and JayRod returns we have Mane and Long as cover rather than Guly etc. Also we were unlucky with spine of team hit at same time - Wanyama, Lovren and Boruc, JayRod injured when in top form. Just bit better luck on injuries could make huge difference. I don't know where we will finish, but stand by my preseason (deluded ) comments that signs are club planning on attempt to improve on last season.

Strange reaction... You are embarrassed by our good start? Embarrassed that between them both Manchester clubs have only bettered this start 5 times in last 14 years? I don't think we will be top 4, but we might. Those who arrogantly state their opinion as fact saying we will drop down the table and cannot possibly finish 4th would have just as confidently said this start wouldn't happen. Football is meant to be about hope and excitememt, enjoy dreaming of Real Madrid next season, don't be embarassed, if we miss out we are only doing same as spurs and Liverpool usually do! A long way to go, but 10 games ago people were looking at us as relegation candidates, now bookies have us as 6th...

I've seen loads of comments in press and other club forums that there are often clubs starting like us then fading away. West From, Newcastle are quoted as starting like us and dropping. However, its not true! Our performance in first 10 games over last 14 years has only been equalled or bettered by top 5 sides, and not regularly by all of them. Arsenal have managed a start as good only 6 years out of last 14. On those 6 seasons they went onto finish 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 1st and 2nd. Chelsea on 8 seasons, finishing 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st and 2nd. ManU only started this well in 4 seasons, going on to finish 1st, 2nd, 1st and 1st. Man C only once when they won the league. Liverpool twice, finishing 2nd and 5th. So funnily, after reading on Liverpool forum that teams often start like us and drop so we can be disregarded as champions league rivals - Liverpool have only managed it twice and are only team to start this well and miss champions league. Only 6 times in last 14 years have teams had better GD than we have after 10. Next 10 games? Last season games 11-20, 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats. If we match last seasons results against each team for next 10, (assuming wins against newly promoted as won most games against relegated sides) we would have 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats.

Is it optimistic to think we maybe still ahead of Spurs, Liverpool and Man u on January 1st? Your 15 points would take us to 37. Spurs? Stoke h, 3 Hull a, 1 Everton h, 1 Chelsea a, 0 Palace h, 3 Swansea a, 1 Burnley h, 3 Leicester a, 3 Man u, h 1 Total 16, giving 30 points January 1st. Man U Palace h 3 Arsenal a 0 Hull h 3 Stoke h 3 Saints a 1 Liverpool h 3 Villa a 1 Newcastle h 3 Spurs a 1 18, total of 31 Liverpool Chelsea 0 Palace a 3 Stoke h 3 Leicester a 3 Sunderland h 3 Man u a 0 Arsenal h 0 Burnley a 3 Swansea h 1 Total 16, giving 30 If we lose to man c, Chelsea, arsenal, draw with villa, palace, man u and Everton we will be on 32 points plus best goal difference. I don't think those predictions are likely to be much lower, if at all, for Liverpool, man u and spurs. Good chance they will do worse. Think press make too much of the harder fixtures coming up, would be surprised if we are out of top 6 by then and if we are more likely due to teams like west ham or swansea

Strange post, really don't know what you are talking about. Not sure if you understood the stats for 5/6th, but as with all predictions can't be guaranteed but sure, if you can get your head around theory you will see its not flawed. Not going to get personal as have no idea if you are young teenager, or have issues but you do seem to just want to snipe at people for the sake of it. Don't know if you realise? Sure no benefit to you in being negative, as all here for same enjoyment.

So, over 100 posts, and nobody thinks that the competition is beneath us and a bit Mickey Mouse for a club of our stature. Nor I think thought it last year. Few differing opinions on what will keep players here, a cup final or 4th finish. I can see argument that champions league finish makes us more attractive to players and makes more money, so in reality probably means more to the progress of the club than a cup win. However, I would get more pleasure from a cup win than 4th and a few erupoean ties, personally much more interested in domestic football.

Can't recall people saying it was below us, do recall MP 'resting' two starters and only bringing them on after an hour. How many did RK rest tonight? Two again? Fans enjoying getting to latter stages of a cup shock!

Last season's used squad; Fonte - still here Lallana - proved Tadic Shaw - match (improved offensively) Lambert - improved Pelle Lovren - improved Toby Schneiderlin - still here Boruc - improved Forster JayRod - still here Davis - still here Clyne - still here Cork - still here Wanyama - still here Chambers - not first 11, replaced by Toby - improvement Ward prowse - still here Osvaldo - replaced Long, improved for us Gazzinger -still here Yoshida - still here Ramirez - improved Mane Gallagher - still here Jos - improved Gardos Fox - improved Targett Davis - still here Guly - isgrove / mayuka Reed - still here Toby being international RB, Gardos replace Jos etc, much stronger back up in defence. Picking a forward 4 from Tadic, pelle, mane, long, Davis, jwp, jayrod, isgrove, Gallagher, isgrove and Gallagher shows depth and variation in options. cm - two from morgan, Wanyama, cork. Reed, jwp - plenty of depth. This is the best strength in depth we have had

No, mine was tongue in cheek, sorry if wasn't clear. Appreciate your default style is to be unpleasant on here, but wasn't how mine was intended. Was purely pointing out, that whatever opinions there are, losing to those teams on its own clearly isn't a reason to say every other poster on here who thinks we are potentially finishing abput of table is wrong & needs to get perspective. I appreciate the stats and logic was beyond you of the other thread, not a problem, follow the main table - by far the most important and likely to end up close to same place.

Some people need to understand this is a league not a cup! How we do against a particular club isn't that relevant on its own. Over whole of last season spurs were 13 points better, Everton 16, man u 8, Liverpool 28. We have one more point than we did after 9 games, the others all down on their 9 game totals from last season (spurs 7, Everton 6, mam united 1, Liverpool 6) I think we have pretty decent chance of improving our points total - last season our start was amazing but we now have a stronger squad, it was later in the season I expected an improvement. I think the teams above us are significantly down on points from corresponding fixtures, from memory of results think Man U about 9 down already. Spurs and Everton prob similar. If we all match the rest of last season (and I think we are improved, spurs, Everton, and Liverpool are all worse) we could well overtake some of them. Maybe when you have finished advising people to get perspective you could look at last seasons results..... Everton lost away to spurs and Liverpool. Man united lost away to spurs and Liverpool. Guess as they lost to those two big boys they were mid table sides last season?

These are level of results typically needed for 5th/6th, and with our start would still gave us ahead of whats needed over season so far; hull City v Southampton D Southampton v Leicester W Villa v Southampton D Southampton v Man City L Arsenal v Southampton L Southampton v Man U L Burnley v Southampton W Southampton v Everton L Crystal Palace v Southampton D Southampton v Chelsea L So don't get too down if we do drop points

After Saturday 25 October Current alternative table: Man C +5 Chelsea +7 Saints +1 Arsenal +3 Spurs 0 West Ham +4 Liverpool -3 Swansea -3 Everton -3 Hull -3 Man U -7 Stoke -10

Can I make a suggestion? This isn't a contentious issue, either you think its of interest and has some merit, or you don't. I obviously think it has some interest and intend to carry it on, for my own interest. If it doesn't interest you why not respect your fellow posters and leave this thread for its intended topic? CB and Phillipine I don't think you understand the OP. The OP explains how its not just because of easy fixtures that we are where we are. With their "ties" , and if we were performing at the same level , Man U should be ahead of us. Mid tables teams do not pick up points as consistently as we have, or typically have the away wins. Quite simple, we are currently, as we approach ¼ of the season performing better in the fixtures given than you would expect the team finishing 5th/6th to do. Saintswen OK, you look at real table, no problem. You say we are there on merit, some media & rivals have stated we are only there due to fixtures. This analysis shows even with compensation for fixtures we are fairly there. I also did it to help posters like this guy who was posting this week about where we need points from (joking aside it was this post that started me thinking about where we need points from) You also posted this week about how many wins we need and when we will have an idea of where we will finish - so would think this would help you You also list 9 teams who are better than us, including Swansea, you are concerned that as we lost to spurs we will be bottom half (but also say we are close to top 6?? So would think it may have been of interest, but, if you have no interest in an alternative table maybe don't open, read and post on a thread with that in the title! This interests me, hope others find some interest in it but dont mind if they don't. I think it is far from 100% but do think gives a bit more information to assess how teams are doing. Anyway, that's killed time for my train journey!

Firstly, typo in my list - WHU should read -1. Positive Pete - agree easier comparing with last seasons fixtures but don't think that would give a fair indication until the end of the season. How we did last season, or where we got points has little relevance on this...we could be looking great if we reverse a couple of bad results, but come the end of a season we may need to then match our performance of the previous season and match a one off victory at Stamford bridge. This also aims to compare other teams, difficulty of fixtures etc. Although I said this is a target for 6th, which requires 63 points I set a target for this plan at 66 (to enable home/away/easy/hard games to balance). We are ahead of the target for 66 by one point, so if follow target for rest of season, hit 67. Over last few years the average points for; 4th= 72 5th= 68 6th= 63 This weekend the ties where challengers need victories and could drop below par are: Saints Everton Liverpool Spurs

An alternative league table.... Are we only 3rd due to easy fixtures? Have the teams competing for 6th to 8th had a harder start? I have tried to work out a league table which compensates for easy/hard fixtures. As well as looking at progress towards a points total rather than against other teams. This is based on several presumptions, eg how points will be divided home/away, what constitutes easy/hard games etc. There is some subjectivity involved but I have based my presumptions on last 5 years tables. My starting point is we are aiming for European qualification by finishing 6th. 6th place should be achieved if we reach 63 points. I have added a small safety margin with a target of 66 points. I have worked out which fixtures a team finishing 6th with 66 points should win/lose/draw. The league table is a running comparison of how each team is doing compared with this projection. A few examples; Chelsea away, win + 3 points, draw +1, lose 0. QPR home, win 0, draw -2, lose -3 - as to finish 6th we would expect to win this game and a defeat would put us 3 points behind schedule. Current alternative table: Man C +8 Chelsea +7 Saints +1 Arsenal +1 Spurs 0 West Ham +1 Liverpool -1 Swansea -3 Everton -3 Hull -4 Man U -7 Stoke -9 Interested me that even allowing for fixtures we are 3rd, but surprised how close Spurs are. The other stand out for me is Man U, for them to just finish 6th they already need to pick up more points away or against top sides. Happy to update this after more games if anyone interested, but in summary Spurs on target for 6th and we are ahead!

We have a chance for top 5. Two factors, us and other teams (stating obvious!). We have played at top 5 level for most of last 12 months, apart from a perod mid last season. Our squad is much better so maybe able to keep performance levels up. Also think Koeman could well be better manager - even our defeats have not been bad. However, we can't expect to improve a huge amount so any climb in table needs other teams to drop. IMHO, Chelsea, Man C and Arsenal will be out of reach. I thought Man U would be by now so was going to ignore them, but longer they take to sort themselves out more pressure will be on them - Ignoring reputation, just on what you see, they are not looking like a top 4 side, even with decent fixtures. However once they get a run going they could storm up the league. Battle for 5th to 8th is between us, Liverpool, Everton, and Spurs. I am not 100% convinced Rogers will sort out the problems there. There seem to be issues with organisation, balance and confidence. Thought for last couple of years Gerrard could be a problem for them... Brave manager to drop him but he is past his best - their key player and he is not as good as our player in same position. They will probably finish top 4 - but think you would be foolish to put your house on them being above us. Spurs - again more likely than not to be above us but certainly catchable. Everton certainly not light years away from us (Turkish ). At moment think more likely than not we will beat them. Early days, I would not make a confident prediction of a final placing but think 4th only just possible, 5th a chance, 6-9th likely, 10-12 possible. Can't see any lower. So early that 3 or 4 games could change view quite a lot...both for us and likes of Everton (if their win at weekend starts a run of 4 wins they will be right back in it).

You are wrong. Of course could have gone either way, as wasn't given by ref, nor picked up by the linesman, nor particularly surprised players. It happened very close to where I sit. I had a different view on the day to the motd angle (view in both meanings). I fully understand the rules, what makes a foul, and the impact of where the ball is etc. From a side on, close view, pretty level with the incident my view on the day was that it wasn't a penalty. I didn't have that instant worry, looking for the ref thinking it would, or even likely to be given. It seemed Forster came out assertively, forward ran in, losing control of the ball and they collided. As someone said , in realtime , from the side view, my memory was there was more of forward into Forster / 50:50. I also felt ball was racing out of play. When seeing the TV angle which IMHO distorts slightly the collision, but does allow you to see ball on play still I can see a much stronger argument that a penalty could have been given. Even if it was given, it would not have been a sending off. It wasn't a clear obvious goalscoring opportunity. Poll has described it as almost certainly would have scored..he would have scored so no sending off. Also, I appreciate Poll's comments about ball still in play but there will be some interpretation. Of course ref thinks about where ball is, what's happening, effect of action on the play. The slow motion replay shows ball was in play, could easily have been ref felt collision after player lost control and attack was over. Having seen TV I would not been surprised or moaned if was given. But fact is, as records show, it wasn't a penalty. Even if given would still have stuffed them!

To be fair he correctly says he has played them before when with Lyon. Good experience would have been gained from the 4-0 and 2-0 defeats, although not as much as could have been as was substituted after half hour! To be fair he has excellent defending ability - speed, tackling etc so sure he will improve. Just hope not this season!

Its clear that Forster, Clyne, Fonte, Toby, Bertrand, Schneiderlin, Tadic all start if fit. Davis only missed one start and then was brought on so safe to say he is pretty much first choice. Of others , so far prem minutes; Wanyama 416 Long 364 JWP 329 Cork 296 Mane 183 JWP is high despite being injured for while. mane low due to late signing and international duties. I thought Davis was bit below par in a recent home game (QPR?) So doubted his starting place (only due to competition) but he was superb on Saturday. If all fit think the most used players will be Forster Clyne Bertrand Toby Fonte Schneiderlin Tadic Davis Then one of (in order of suspected RK's preference) JWP Wanyama Cork With not much between them. Then one of Mane or Long but both getting on most games. Good thing this season formation less obvious, could easily find good 442, 4231, 41311 etc. If Jay Rod comes back as he was he has to start...but Mane could be undroppable by then!!

As we have come away from both Liverpool and Spurs with nothing, I was thinking about whether we need points from teams above us to finish higher. Obviously, those games maybe 6 pointers so not just about points we gain, but the average points (home /away split) for teams finishing 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th over last few years are; 3rd 75 (43/32) 4th 72 (40/32) 5th 68 (39/29) 6th 63 (39/24) 7th 59 (33/26) Our last season, 56 (30/26). So far this season 16 (10/6). We have 15 games left at home & away. Therefore, on average, to finish 6th we may need 47 more points from 30 games, 29 from 15 home games, 18 from 15 away games. Achievable? Where from? 10 home wins, 6 away will do it! The main difference between the top places is often not on amount of games won, but turning losses into draws. A long long way to go, but we can love with a bad spell in December and still improve on last season (56 points -30/26). Rough example target fair chance to get 6th... Home, need to win 12 easiest games, (9th-bottom), draw next easiest 3 (5th, 7th and 8th). Away, beat 15th-20th, draw with 9th to 14th. Sounds easy ! If you can predict final table you can work out if we are ahead. I'm sure it won't be this tidy when we start dropping points we don't expect but was curious how much of a hit we can afford to take in December.

In November 2012, after 11 games, we had 5 points, we were one place and one point ahead of QPR. Our 1-3 victory led to an amazing new management appointment for QPR. So, how have the two clubs done since? Has the best manager England never had proved his worth? Luckily there was soon as transfer window for HR to work his magic. By meagre spending on Remy £8m, Samba £13m, plus Jenas and a loan for Townsend from spurs, this shrewd £20m+ window turned their season around. We were silly, only signing Forren with 8 leaving. Somehow, this mistake, against HR's genius went unpunished and arry dropped a further 5 places and 16 points behind. Since then they have spent around £15m more than us, plus been happy to sign high wages players and yet further behind. How? Heard HR on the radio this week, moaning about people expecting more, when they started season with such a weak squad - forgetting it was his job to prepare a squad! I heard reporter saying he deserves more time as he got them promoted.... Forgetting he also got them relegated and scraped promotion with possibly the highest squad.

From this- http://www.saintsweb.co.uk/showthread.php?50379-Wanyama-stats#.VEIc88twav0 "Looking at games where he played more than 45 mins (which actually takes out 3-0 victory at Fulham so could be harsh on him). He played almost exactly half the season. Played 17, for 22, against 6, points 33. Over season, for 49, against 13, points 74." I saw Wanyama / Scneiderlin as by far our first choice partnership last season. Cork as good back up. However, this season, cork has improved considerably and we play a less rigid defensive two, so Cork is less of just back up. I would choose Wanyama to start as often stops the other team single handedly leaving others to attack, but not disappointed at all if was Cork. Such is our quality in depth now I'm happy any combination from Tadic, Long, Davis, Cork, Mane behind Pelle based on form, fitness and Koeman's tactics. Davis adds a lot, plays well most games, Cork a bit less so but very good player..but as a spectator Tadic/Long/Mane is the most exciting to watch combination. I would go for (obvious back 5) schneiderlin, Wanyama, Tadic, Davis, Mane, pelle with long and Cork likely to be used in 2nd half.

Your opinion maybe that it will go pear shaped, but that is just your view not based on the recent evidence. What we know is selling Lallana, Shaw, Lambert and Lovren provided Forster, Bertrand, Gardos, Toby, Tadic, Mane and Long + plus cash. Its hard to argue that that wasn't a good window for the club. Doubt any of us, or the club, would choose to go through the wholesale changes next window, but the evidence is Reid knows what he is doing, gets good prices and identifies cheaper better options. Why should he be destined to fail next time when proven? He may well fail, hence why we would prefer to keep players, but reckon its more than 50/50 he would do OK for the squad if we do suffer departures.

Not sure if you are much older, if at all, so I won't let you get away with the grumpy old man defence! I don't get why (although of course you are entitled to your ways) you shouldn't get excited or carried away with football? I'm not convinced it makes you feel worse when things go wrong?? Using your friend Alpine as an example, he expects the worst but even when we achieve far more than he thinks possible he moans, why not enjoy the ride? I remember, back in league one days, when we had an amazing run, I was posting weekly stats which many enjoyed. You and alpine moaned. I remember you criticising, saying it will come to an end. We have continued on that upward curve...yes it will end, we will have bad times, but I enjoy it more....and its only a hobby! Why not let your son enjoy it? Let him dream of times you (and probably I) don't think possible, don't believe every negative rumour, keep an open mind, you are allowed to be biased towards saints, its what fans do! I respect your choice to post on here as yourself, and your interest in the past - although I'm not big on history, but you do seem to relish criticising the club, only to proudly share your meetings (as we all would do,) but you must see the apparent hipocracy? I'm sure you are decent bloke, think we may have met in the Avenue many years ago? But this isn't about hindsight, its keeping open balanced view and not jumping to conclusions. Hopefully, you will one day think my view that Les was aiming to improve this season wasn't just hot air

QUOTE=WIGANSAINT;2005981]Arr I see some of the forum bully's are out in force haha. Ok so let me be serious for a moment. Let's look at the facts. Did les reed not give indications that only one or 2 would be sold?did ron also say we are not a selling club?did Harrison reed not also say he is impressed with the clubs ambitions?let me explain to some of the thickos on here. Your being fed a bellyful of spin and your so grateful to kitty and her family you will put up with anything.Well I for one do not like liars and in the past week Lesley and Ron have both been proven to have been lying.If your going to sell say it. Don't try to con the fans so you can get the extra season tickets etc. And your insults don't bother me in fact I quite embrace it . Good luck to mopo and nicola cortese they both did a great job and had no choice but to go in these horrid times. My shirt is in the bin till fatty goes. You guys continue but I tell you ,unless we act there is only one place we are going and that's down. Maybe not this season but you can't always rely on bringing youth in. QUOTE=WIGANSAINT;2001320]Absolutey disgusting.I never thought I would say this but rupert lowe was not even this bad. Feel free to shout me down ,but if your still backing those running the club then your a mug much like matt le tiss whose tongue seems half way up kitty's backside. Think I know whether you are right. Guessing about 12/13? Read the article, ask for help with bits you don't understand