NickG

You do realise those are not only some of the hardest games, but still only count for 3 points each? Lose, home and away to Chelsea, Man C, Man U, Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs and you still have 13 easier teams to get points from. Win those and you would have 78 points. Easily enough for top 4. This season maybe mid 60's may get 4th. Do you think, even if we lose all of those harder games, that it is impossible that we will get over 60 points? If that is possible then you shouldn't write off top 4. I don't think we will get top 4, but we certainly have a fair chance still, whatever happened in last three. (Although 3 wins and I would be starting to get confident!)

Disappointed with result and that I had to miss it. Difference between us and top sides seems to be grinding out points in these games. Weren't far away from points in all - even city, who were clearly better, we there was no reason, until their 2nd, we couldn't get something. Didn't see it but see Steve Claridge saying we dominated and deserved to win. Looks like still playing like top 6/7 side at least. 15 shots to united's 3. Next week is more the sort of game our season will be defined by. We gained our points by consistently beating the others. After 15 games; 13/14, 8th, 23 points, +5GD, 6 points off 4th, 14/15, 5th, 26 points, +13GD, 1 point off 4th. Koeman saying we were better team and lost it ourselves. Still think will better last season, just hope Everton, Liverpool and Spurs don't improve.

Funny getting called deluded every season by people who call how we are going to do with far less accuracy than I do! You may disagree but my view is far from deluded. Fact is we won't pay enough to keep top players happy with regular first team football. More do we offer as many opportunities without Europe. People moaned that Cork wasnt getting opportunities earlier in the season as Schneiderlin, Wanyama, JWP & Davis all preferred. We are currently looking weak in CM but what level could we recruit? Someone to sit behind all of those if all fit? Or push Cork down the list? Squad strength is hard, a balance of not being bloated when players fit, but able to cover reasonable injury levels. IMHO we are not , for level we are, far off there. Deluded isn't rating players slightly different, although it maybe , as you did, claiming this time latlst year we were 2nd to back your argument - we were 8th! Maybe because, as a deluded poster said in that thread you quoted, because our squad is stronger!

Worth noting The9 that you are making stuff up! This time last year, 1 December, after 13 games, we were not 2nd. We were 7th. Do you still think last year is a good model for this? Do you reckon we will drop one position again, and so finish 4th? Last year after 13 were 7th with 22. This year after 13 are 3rd with 26. After tonight, when everyone has played 14 the worst we could be is still 3rd on 26 Being a sad statto, I do find it interesting when people say our squad isn't as strong as others, therefore we do worse from now on, to look at how teams did in latter part of the season last year. I don't think anyone would argue that we dropped off, or that Liverpool went on an impressive run late on, or that Man U, spurs, Everton used their squads to finish stronger. There are 24 games left. If these more established squads use their strength as they did last year, and we drop off as we did, this is how the table will finish; (3 options for teams still to play 14th game) Chelsea 85/86/88 Man C 85/86/88 Man U 67 Liverpool 77 Arsenal 65/66/68 Spurs 65/66/68 Everton 62/63/65 Saints 60/61/63 West Ham 51 Swansea 46 Newcastle 46 Clearly a lot changes, but personally found the comparisons with Liverpool, spurs, Everton and arsenal interesting. Liverpool had an amazing run in, don't look anywhere near the side that they were, but even that form would only see them with 77 points - find it hard to see them reaching 70. Spurs, Everton and Arsenal finished well (45 from last 24) and the sort of strength we are meant to be short of. But again, if they match this (despite all looking weaker this year) they will be in mid 60s. So a 6 point improvement on last years final ⅔ of the season could keep us in the battle for 4th/5th/6th. If we pick up points in the hard games ahead we should do well. If we lose them all, it will be about confidence, but 65+ points should still be achievable. Just hope Spurs, Liverpool, Everton and Arsenal drop points, do worse than last season, and so struggle to reach 60!

Great first choice 11.....no excuses!

Jwp isn't seen as back up....cork is getting more game time because JWP is injured. First choices are Wanyama, Davis, Scheiderlin, JWP. Last two managers. Think Reed and JWP will only get better, Cork's future probably depends on whether others stay. But as someone else said - have no drop in confidence for a game when hear he is starting, excellent depth to have. Think maybe player short in more attacking roles - but that could be JayRod soon. Someone mentioned 2nd op? Thought he just had fluid drained?

Not like you to be more pro-saints/positive than me but..... Would be stunned if he went for anywhere near £10m. He is definately a squad player for us rather than automatic starter. He gets involved a lot, quite tidy but unfortunately doesn't excell in any area. Wanyama and Morgan are better at all aspects, Davis much more effective and quicker thinking in attacking third, JWP more reliable on the ball and set pieces. Last two managers have preferred other 4 so can't see him being bought for £10m. Having said that, as "back up" player I am never disappointed to hear he is starting, a very good player - and sort we need if ever in more competitions. If Reed is as good as thought, and others stay, and maybe sign another, I can see his days being numbered, and unfortunately probably rightly so

JWP already ahead of Cork for first 11 - until his injury. They must anticipate further progress for him too as still very young for his role.

I keep reading the Davis is an underrated player but can't help feeling Cork is one of the most over-rated on here. Don't get me wrong I think he is pretty good has had a few very good games but so clearly below Schneiderlin, Davis, Wanyama and JWP in ability. Also appears the manager agrees. Reid seems quicker and sharper, if he gets closer to the first team will there be a role for Cork?

But is Gallagher our 2nd choice forward? I don't think he is. I think our cover is much better than last season; If everyone else is fit then our back up probably is; RB - Toby , with Gardos or Yoshida, international CBs who have looked good, cover CB. Toby plays RB internationally for Belgium. Improvement on chambers last season. LB - our back up has been Fox or Clyne moving - this year better with Targett. CBs - Gardos / Yoshida very good for 3rd/4th choice. Think Spurs / Liverpool would consider them for 1st team. Midfield - Morgan, Wanyama, JWP, Tadic, Cork, Mane, Reid, Long, isgrove, McQueen, Rowe, even Gardos or Toby - pretty sure there will always be four or six from there. Forwards - Pelle, Long only be moved out wide here, Jay Rod, Mane (clearly can play through middle) , Gallagher -unlikely will need to go far down the list. It may well be that a favourite on here, Cork, is soon back down to be less likely to start in midfield than 7 others (Morgan, Wanyama, JWP, Davies, Tadic, Long, Mane). Apparently our players are less likely to get injured, we have adaptable players, and a very flexible formation. We may not have the depth of Chelsea / man city - we can't attract it without champions league, but also playing half the games we don't need it. Id suggest Toby covering at RB, Gardos at CB would still give a back four which could compare with our top 7 competition. With our midfield I'm sure Long would do OK - Liverpool 's forwards don't have a league goal yet, Spurs have Kane and Adebeyor with 3 between them - Pelle would be a big miss but we can't expect to have two at his level when most our rivals don't have one. Easy to be impressed by names (Falcao, 1 goal ). I think we have decent depth for a top 7 side not in Europe. Maybe rose tinted, but maybe other in awe of big name clubs and players - we are not light years away from them, but competing. I think there are a fee valid points in that article, but not we are weak, nor we bottle hard games (rubbish). Anyway, Arsenal do that all the time.

You are right about different levels - Scholes wasn't as good as 18!

Until he was injured he started every game - rightly so. He is only just turned 20 and is better than Cork at most aspects of his game, and not far off in others. At his age Scholes was just making his debut, appreciate for Man U, in league cup. I think , not checked, that JWP played in more games than any player last season. Read transfer threads on both Liverpool and Man U sites - fans of both want him. Seems very balanced and dedicated lad as well. Just needs, as matures, to make a position / role his own. Could be one of our best.

For a big CF he is very young. He is two years or more younger than Harry Kane. JayRod was being loaned out from Burnley to stirling Albion at his age and not even started scoring for Burnley. Danny Ings was just starting his Bournemouth career. The age that Pelle and Lambert started scoring shows players develop at different rates. He should be a decent, lower prem/champ forward at least but maybe a top player Far too early to right him off.

Thankfully the team is run on football priorities, not PR stunts to keep bed wetters happy. Is Clyne a better RB than Chambers - yes clearly by a fair distance. Is Chambers decent player who will have decent career? Yes. Did he ask to leave? Yes. Would he have played at all for us so far this season? Probably not a single minute (maybe in cup). Has Long assisted us? Yes. Was it a good decision to exchange a player who wanted to leave and would play for a player keen to play for us and is making an impact? Clearly yes. Not sure if you are just on a wind up with your posts?

Who knows his personal influence? How much did he lead strategy and how much he implemented others' ideas? Was only here 2 years; JayRod Steve Davis Clyne Gazzinger Mayuka Yoshida Forren Ramirez Boruc Lovren Osvaldo Wanyama Tadic Pelle Forster Long Gardos Toby Mane Bertrand Taider

Can I suggest that those getting frustrated with Charlie's attitude and posting, have a read through some of his posts from the summer and decide whether he is rational and knows much about football. I don't get this Lallana "devoted" 12 years of his life crap. He was playing football, for by far the best club within best part of 100 miles and becoming a very rich young man at the same time. Best of luck to him but hardly missionary work! He was a good player for us. No doubt about it. I've never met him but can't say he comes across particularly well as a good character. He clearly dealt with his departure badly, with little respect or class hence the ill-feeling. And guess what, football fans are emotional about that sort of thing! Tadic v Lallana? I enjoyed watching Lallana play, he was entertainin, however it appears Tadic could well be a significant improvement. He may not be here long. He also appears, from his attitude on the pitch and interviews a decent bloke - although clearly don't know much about him. What sets Tadic ahead are two things, he plays with his vision up, sees the game better - hence the assists etc. He also appears physically fitter and stronger.

Great news! With your track record with predictions this is best news we've had, top 4 it is! (Don't give up the dream, this time two years ago you said we would be so far adrift by Christmas we would be as good as relegated!) Funny how if we start badly you would be happy that we are at the right level, and the table never lies. Start well and its all about early days etc. You, I'm sure, are not 100% confident we will miss top 4, fool if you are. Still, unlikely, but still could easily happen - prob less of a shock for us to continue that it was for us to start this well. Enjoy. Dream. If we drop down to 8th, or whatever, at least you have enjoyed the dream while it lasted. I think our points will be enough for top 4, if others underachieve as they have been. Unfortunately I can see its more likely that ars bal and Man U will improve fair bit.

Always hard to compare but I think Matic had buy out clause. In our favour - our financial position, his experience in English football already, think getting towards 300 appearances for us - nearly everyone of them good. He would be a risk free performer who would prove spurs, man utd, arsenal, Liverpool.

Les Reed seems to be the main one to keep - chairman , managers, players have come and gone since he was here and none missed despite all our concerns. Higher we finish the less clubs are able to tempt our players. Last season you could only see players leaving for the 7 clubs above us (English clubs). Now? Think spurs, everton and even Liverpool would find it harder. If Clyne starts for England, but without Lallana, Shaw, chambers or Lambert surely that sends a bit of a message out? Also if Tadic, Toby or whoever leave, we must be more attractive for new players now? Anyway JWP, Reid, Target etc or the future

Fair point thanks. Stats bore instead... As explained previously the following isn't a bad model to achieve 4th.. Reach 72 points. Gain these by winning home and away games against teams 9th-20th. Lose against last seasons top 8. This is not far off a typical champions league qualification season for arsenal - both on number of points and also where they are gained. Saints We have only dropped 2 points (WBA). Therefore to follow this model we to consistently beat "easier" teams (as we have been) plus need at least two draws from last season's top 7. (We have 12 "hard" games left to do this). Achievable, but I think winning week in, week out, in "easier" games is the hard part. After their starts; Man U They need to immediately start winning all their "winnable" games. Plus need to find 3 wins from remaining 11 games against top 8. Despite their start, (maybe just because of their name / history) you can perhaps imagine them gaining those wins - I think the consistency against "easier" teams maybe their problem. Everton They need to immediately start winning all "easier" games plus win 3 of the 10 "harder" games. Already a big ask. Next two home games are West Ham and Hull - need to win both. Spurs They need to immediately start winning all "easier" games plus win 3 of the 10 "harder" games. Next game - need win away at Hull. Liverpool They need to immediately start winning all "easier" games plus win 1, draw 1 of the 9 "harder" games. In next four they are home to Stoke and Sunderland and away to Palace and Leicester. They need to win all four. You can't discount West Ham and Swansea either. I don't think this model can make any team feel comfortable for top 4 until much further into the season, however, if Liverpool, Everton, Spurs or Man U continue to drop points in "easy" over next few weeks, and fail to gain in their "hard" games, you can see 72 points quickly being very very unlikely.

Last years top teams? Liverpool 14 points- games until Christmas - away at Palace, home to Stoke, away to Leicester, home to Sunderland, away at Man U, home to Arsenal - what do you think? Another 8 or so points? Maybe 12? gives them 22 to 26 at Christmas. Man U, 16 points, away to Arsenal, home to Hull, home to Stoke, away to us, home to Liverpool, away at Villa, another 8 to 12? giving 24 to 28 at Christmas? Everton, 14 points, home to West Ham, away to spurs, home to Hull, away to Man C, home to QPR, away to us. 8 to 12? giving 22 to 26 Spurs, 14 points, away to Hull, home to Everton, away to Chelsea, home to Palace, away to Swansea, home to Burnley - 9 to 13? giving 23 to 27. Saints - 25 points now. Can't see us being caught by all of them by Christmas, can you? Yes, only blemish in a run which Arsenal would be proud of. humility? Don't know why anyone would spend their time looking for silly arguments that don't exist on here, but you are looking silly now. The "prediction" you are obsessing over clearly wasn't that. You even quoted it with the words stating otherwise. Not sure if you are not the sharpest tool or struggle with football debate so play the forum bully? Its not entertaining to me. The clue was in the words! "These are level of results typically needed for 5th/6th, and with our start would still gave us ahead of whats needed over season so far" (sorry typo gave should read have). In this thread I have spoken about an Arsenal type season -winning against all but top 7 - this doesn't mean it is a prediction! When you failed to understand how looking at where points are more likely to come from over a season, with our fixture list, it may give a period with a low points return - you conceded it was beyond you to understand - maybe that was time to ask for help? I will help you now, making it easier for you - we play ~Arsenal, Man City and Man U in three consecutive games. Lets say we lose them all (a discussion point not a prediction, I know you struggle ) . That will be 0 points from 3 games. With your argument that is relegation form. I agree in your strange simplistic way if you took that form over a season you would be relegated with 0 points. However, if you look back at the teams who finished 4th recently, they typically drop points in these games. Therefore, there is some logic in saying - if we continue to do as well in other games it is still top 4 form. We may not, it may not be enough but it isn't ridiculous to everyone else! other saw you missing the target... even if you genuinely did misunderstand it was quickly explained to you, so why persist with your argumentative posts? true - but did include a fair amount of their first team players from last couple of years - Chambers, Sanchez, Cazorla, Wilshire, Rosicky, Podolski, Cambell. We played Gardos and Targett - and were away. So not a bad result.

After today's games Chelsea +11 Man C +3 West Ham 0 Arsenal -4 Saints -2 Swansea 0 Liverpool -4 Spurs -7 Everton -7 Newcastle -5 Man U -8 (Just to clarify For CB as he seems to be only one who struggles...I am not predicting we will win all of these games, and lose all of ones against top 7, its a model of one way a steady 4th place may happen)

Maybe quite low this year but 72 points should be enough. Interestly, 4th place seems to go to a team performing in a way that people give as a reason we will fail - a poor return from top teams, winning most of the rest. If you win all games against teams 9-20th, that gives 72 points. As far as point return we could afford to drop some points in our tough games, however clearly that means other teams gaining but most importantly what would the relative impact on both teams confidence be? If we are going to stand decent chance for 4th, we need to keep this consistency for the season and could really do with a clear other top 3 taking points off any other rivals for top 4. At the moment, teams to hit 72 this way: Chelsea +11 Man C +3 West Ham 0 Arsenal -1 Saints -2 Swansea -3 Liverpool -4 Spurs -4 Everton -5 Newcastle -5 Man U -8 If we aren't taking points against Arsenal, Man U etc makes other games pretty much must wins for 4th.

Agree, Two other factors 1) will go into Man C, and good chance Arsenal and Man U games ahead of them...how will that change both teams' approaches? 2) if we do lose them, desite CB thinking makes for a relegation side, Arsenal have proven in past you can lose these games and make CL if you recover and beat lower teams consistently

Of course you are right, there is no prediction there - quite funny, posting a quote saying " here you did say it" when quote clearly reads otherwise. Anyway, I was surprised when I looked up Arsenal and Spurs' recent top 4 finishes, how badly they did against top teams. (See post 57). Obviously what's needed for a 5th/6th finish depends on how other teams do, great runs will make it harder. But, if anything, I think my alternative league table model could end up providing more points than is needed. Those results , in my opinion, would likely leave us in top 5 for new year and on course to stay there. What matters is how we then continue, do the defeats knock confidence or do we go back to beating lower teams? CB is right that that level of form, if you ignore opposition, is relegation form. However, what he doesn't understand is that are two things 1) the points we already have / likely to get either side 2) who we are playing. The alternative table was to temper enthusiasm (mine included) due to our start being in part due to who we have played. It is excellent start, but is helped by who we played. ( I will update table after next weekend's fixtures, even if we don't get the required par result of a win). You can't argue it both ways, as some seem to try - our start due to easy games / ignore fact we don't 'need' to win hard games (unless we are aiming for top 2!)