I cant agree to that as that goat may have been swapped with the goat behind the first or second door so may have been the first first goat and the first goat was really the old goat driving the car or is that Tokyo?
Originally it would have been priori but as its now posteori I could come along to your way of thinking but with certain reservations depending on if you had a good or bad host.
In the beginning you had a 33% chance of winning on the second attempt you have a 50% chance but only if you change otherwise you will stillbe at the 33%chance of your first attempt