Connolly has played all of half an hour for us and already he's the best thing since sliced bread.
How much more likely is it that he'll go the way of so many signings; arriving with a fanfare and leaving with his tail between his legs?
What he means you pillock is that these are the odds on actual promotion rather than automatic promotion on the one hand or the playoffs on the other. The odds on being promoted are obviously not the same as the odds on achieving promotion automatically.
If you ask me, what this means is that their playing poker and leaving things till the last possible moment to get the best possible deal and the lowest possible price they can.