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February - Massive Month


Born In The 80s
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Now we're out the JPT, Carling Cup and FA Cup it truly is time to focus 100% of our attentions towards the vital league fixtures we have coming up. Just been having a look at the fixtures ahead (i'd lost track with all the games being cancelled) and this next month will answer a lot of the questions some of us fans have about the team. Some fans (myself included) have concerns regarding our lack of steel on the road. Brighton have set the benchmark this season. They have managed to find those crucial late winning goals that really do give you a huge boost when you haven't deserved it or played especially well. When we don't play well, we don't normally score let alone nick a winner.

 

But of course with all the rescheduled games, there is still plenty of time to change the form book and this month is where it really has to start if we're serious about automatic promotion. Four away games, all at places that Saints would traditionally struggle at. Here is the schedule...

 

Feb 1 19:45 GMT Exeter City v Southampton

Feb 5 17:20 GMT Peterborough United v Southampton

Feb 12 15:00 GMT Southampton v Carlisle United

Feb 19 15:00 GMT Rochdale v Southampton

Feb 22 19:45 GMT Hartlepool United v Southampton

Feb 26 15:00 GMT Southampton v Swindon Town

 

First thing is first, have to win your home games and i expect nothing less than 6 points from those fixtures. But it's the away games that will be decide if we'll still be in contention by the end of the month. I think right now i'd take 12 points (2 per game) from those 6 games, but i'm really not confident of 3 points in any of those four away games.

 

A telling month ahead methinks...

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Has anyone tried putting scores into the BBC predictor?

 

I think I've been far too optimistic (despite predicting a defeat in the game against P'Boro) and have us in fourth place by the end of February with Bournemouth grinding out enough results to go top simply because Brighton only play 3 games in February, we play 5 and Bournemouth play 6. A month is along time I know but the simple fact of the imbalance in the number of games each team is playing in February is likely to make big changes to the table. That game against the Cherries on March 12th could be a promotion decider for both teams. We are chasing Brighton now but it could (for a short while at least) be us chasing someone else...

 

 

I've probably also been too tough on Charlton and Colchester but too good to MK Dons and Swindon.

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Feb is important, but look at March and April. 7 games in each of those months, with the majority away from home and including away trips to Bournemouth and Brighton. If we can get 2 points a game on average through Feb I think we'll be set up nicely to challenge for the automatic places during the run in.

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Those of you who say that March and April will be just as big as February are completely right. The point I was making was this month will certainly go a long way in answering a couple of questions regarding the bottle and fight of the current squad (something that has been questioned by some fans, myself included, over the past couple of months). Slugging it out on crap pitches at Exeter, Hartlepool and Rochdale have always been a problem for Saints, and I was hugely encouraged to see us come through the game on Tuesday night with 3 points after playing poorly.

 

We’ve also got a couple of tests at home. Swindon and Carlisle will come and park the bus. I’m still not totally convinced we have the patience levels and temperament to break these sides down. We simply MUST win these types of games if we are to finish top 2. No excuses. With the kind of firepower we have, it should be very doable, but as we all know, it’s never as simple as that with saints.

 

A fantastic start at Exeter, but now we need to carry that on and continue to grind out results. It’s absolutely no good having a great win at Exeter and following it up with a draw and a loss in the next two. At this stage of the season we need wins. They really are the difference.

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Brighton have set the benchmark this season. They have managed to find those crucial late winning goals that really do give you a huge boost when you haven't deserved it or played especially well. When we don't play well, we don't normally score let alone nick a winner.

First thing is first, have to win your home games and i expect nothing less than 6 points from those fixtures. But it's the away games that will be decide if we'll still be in contention by the end of the month. I think right now i'd take 12 points (2 per game) from those 6 games, but i'm really not confident of 3 points in any of those four away games.

 

A telling month ahead methinks...

I realise this was posted before the win against Exeter. Neverthless, Brighton's away record is worse than ours (in terms of points it is the same, but our win ratio is higher). It is their home form that is far better than ours. February we had 4 away and 2 home games, therefore I don't see this month as particularly massive in terms of those games. Of course we need to win our 2 home games, and if we can lose no more than 1 away we will be doing very well (no away defeats would be a bonus). The away games this month, with the possible exception of Peterborough are nothing to be worried about and as we proved against Exeter we can dig out a victory when we don't play well. Also what happened to all the scare mongerers saying we would have a fixture pile up and midweek games every week - we only have one more midweek game this month, hardly a fixture pile up is it. Only Chamberlain has an extra midweek game if he gets to play for england U21s.

 

Massive month? not really

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Don't Brighton only have three league games this month?

 

They can't stop us going above them this month if we get at least 5 wins and a draw, albeit they'd have games in hand.

 

What with the weather and the cup runs, this could all come down to squad depth determining final positions.

 

If that's the case I fancy us a little more than Brighton, who could find the last six weeks really tough.

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Brighton are showing all the attributes of a L1 championship winning side. With the points gap back to 8 points, realistically Saints can rule out catching them.

 

So is the Saints team is good enough to make second place. It looks achievable on the points needed and on Lallana to come back, but that places a lot of reliance on one player making all the difference and other teams dropping points. The others around and above us are competing well or even better that Saints, so that 3 wins in the next three games for us now looks a minimum requirement. If we only get 5 or 6 points I'd write-off automatic promotion unless Bournemouth, Huddersfield and Charlton all hit a bad patch and at the moment that doesn't look likely.

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Brighton are showing all the attributes of a L1 championship winning side. With the points gap back to 8 points, realistically Saints can rule out catching them.

 

So is the Saints team is good enough to make second place. It looks achievable on the points needed and on Lallana to come back, but that places a lot of reliance on one player making all the difference and other teams dropping points. The others around and above us are competing well or even better that Saints, so that 3 wins in the next three games for us now looks a minimum requirement. If we only get 5 or 6 points I'd write-off automatic promotion unless Bournemouth, Huddersfield and Charlton all hit a bad patch and at the moment that doesn't look likely.

 

How utterly ridiculous, you seriously think not winning one game in February means we can write off automatic promotion? We wont win every game for the rest of the season, but guess what? Those around us wont either. Bournemouth and Huddersfield play each other in two weeks time, they cant both win. 6 points from the next 3 games would give us 10 over the last 5, 2 a game, decent return in my book. What is important is we dont lose to the teams around us and IMO i think we need to win around 13 of our last 19 games. We can probably afford 3 defeats and those around us will lose as well.

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