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We Must Take Admin If We Don't Beat Watford


brightspark
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If we can't claim the 3 points against Watford, I'd say that with other teams pulling away, our season would practically be over. Obviously we could escape but its very unlikely... VERY unlikely.

 

So... it is a touchy subject... but we should take administration if that happens. Why? Because what a f**king (repeat swear word many times) waste it would be if we were to be punished by starting next season with -10. If we get relegated, we should have already taken the deduction so that we have every chance to make the all important top 2 in 09/10.

 

Do you agree? Do you think admin is a myth?

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If we can't claim the 3 points against Watford, I'd say that with other teams pulling away, our season would practically be over. Obviously we could escape but its very unlikely... VERY unlikely.

 

So... it is a touchy subject... but we should take administration if that happens. Why? Because what a f**king (repeat swear word many times) waste it would be if we were to be punished by starting next season with -10. If we get relegated, we should have already taken the deduction so that we have every chance to make the all important top 2 in 09/10.

 

Do you agree? Do you think admin is a myth?

 

Administration is not a tactical decision, it is a financial decision. It is a decision taken as a last resort when there is absolutely no other option. Stop thinking it's about when best to give up 10 points, it is about whether our club has a future or not. In the current financial climate there is no certainty that there will be a club to finish in the top two in League 1 in 2009/10 if we go into administration. If we do we will be even weaker and will struggle in League 1. Don't even think about it let alone wish for it.

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Administration is not a tactical decision, it is a financial decision. It is a decision taken as a last resort when there is absolutely no other option. Stop thinking it's about when best to give up 10 points, it is about whether our club has a future or not. In the current financial climate there is no certainty that there will be a club to finish in the top two in League 1 in 2009/10 if we go into administration. If we do we will be even weaker and will struggle in League 1. Don't even think about it let alone wish for it.

 

No one wishes for it, but it's a case of thinking practically.

 

If relegation means administration is unavoidable, and if it looks like relegation is a certainty - the sensible thing to do is take the 10 point hit this season.

 

-10 next year would make relegation to League 2 the next a very real possibility.

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I thought this loophole had been sorted by the FA to prevent teams getting an unfair advantage by choosing to take the points deduction when it will have the least effect, as Leeds done.

 

I thought if you take admin past a certain point in the season then the points are deducted in the following season.

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I thought this loophole had been sorted by the FA to prevent teams getting an unfair advantage by choosing to take the points deduction when it will have the least effect, as Leeds done.

 

I thought if you take admin past a certain point in the season then the points are deducted in the following season.

On and after the fourth Thursday in March the points take effect next season. This year that means March 26th.

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/sport/saints/news/4066098.March_deadline_for_administration/

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Rupert will never voluntarily take administration.

 

Nor should he. Surley he has a responsibility to at least the shareholders.

 

As much as his decisions are incredibly debateable I certainly can't see him doing anything to destroy the club. Surely he would lose as well ?

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Rupert will never voluntarily take administration. Personally, I don't think we're that close to administration, and because of players leaving when their contracts are up in the summer, I don't think we'll be near it then, whatever division we're in.

 

I agree in the sentiment, but he has a legal duty to do so if the club are trading outside of its means. The bit you raise about the contracts is valid, although whether we get relegated or not, we will see a further decline in our revenue stream as the uptake of season tickets will be very poor (IMO). I can see a situation where he takes (If he already hasn't) a **** or bust attitude and without attacking him (Just observing his personality) that he will fight to the death and regardless of whether he could technically call in the administrators before the FA deadling of taking the hit this season, will go down fighting somewhere around November / December next year. I hope im wrong.

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Rupert will never voluntarily take administration. Personally, I don't think we're that close to administration, and because of players leaving when their contracts are up in the summer, **I don't think we'll be near it then**, whatever division we're in.

 

Do you really believe this?

 

We have a £20m mortgage, a whacking great overdraft, and we are probably not even breaking-even on day-to-day running costs.

 

Relegation looks at least 'likely'; how will we trade our way out of this position if we are in Lge 1 with much reduced gate revenue (fewer STs sold, less walk-up, less away fans, less match day revenue), less commercial revenue and less TV and other external funding?

 

Player sales and moving out of the high-earners will bridge some of the gap but in no way will it be enough and it will just be a continuation of the downward spiral we have been on since the first relegation. Next year's first team will make this year's (completely inadequate) first team look like Brazil! What sort of crowds will we see in Lge 1 for that sort of football?

 

Throw in the worst set of external financial circumstances for 50 years and we are royally shafted.

 

There are only two successful ways out of this:

 

1 We are taken over with a cash injection sufficient to stabilise us (ie ward off the immediate threat of administration) and give us enough working capital for a 'fresh start', presumably in Lge 1. How much are we looking at for that to happen? £2m? £5m? £10m?

 

2 Alternatively the 'fans' bite the bullet and we put a crowd of 25k in SMS every single game, regardless of form, football, results, ticket prices, politics or anything else. Is that going to happen?

 

In reality we are destined to remain on RL's 'zero-option' train-to-oblivion; sheer economics say that on current trends and without either Option1 or Option 2 we will be out of business in the next 6-18 months.

 

And you still think 'admin' is unlikely in Lge 1?

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Administration is not a tactical decision, it is a financial decision. It is a decision taken as a last resort when there is absolutely no other option. Stop thinking it's about when best to give up 10 points, it is about whether our club has a future or not. In the current financial climate there is no certainty that there will be a club to finish in the top two in League 1 in 2009/10 if we go into administration. If we do we will be even weaker and will struggle in League 1. Don't even think about it let alone wish for it.

 

But realistically do you actually think SFC could survive financially in League 1 with all our overheads?

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But realistically do you actually think SFC could survive financially in League 1 with all our overheads?

 

Our "overheads" are the players.

The stadium repayments are generated by 23 home gates of 5500 fans at

£18 per ticket. Last seasons player and coach wage bill needed 23 home gates of 28K to break even.

That's been slashed to about half now,if we were to descend to League 1

it would be cut by another 35% or so.Euell,Saga,Thomas,Davies would be out of the door like a shot. It's realisable and the management certainly have a contingency plan in place.

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I think you're forgetting something...

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/sport/4066098.March_deadline_for_administration/?action=complain&cid=7463367

 

We lose either way, as Post it note suggests. If we look to stay up, it's minus 10 points and relegation. If we are dead certs to be relegated, the minus 10 gets carried to next season (and if Lowe was in charge, we'd drop through League 1 too - he'd start signed tyro players!!)

 

Pretty much, Lowe has killed our club. Get the c**t out now!

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Our "overheads" are the players.

The stadium repayments are generated by 23 home gates of 5500 fans at

£18 per ticket. Last seasons player and coach wage bill needed 23 home gates of 28K to break even.

That's been slashed to about half now,if we were to descend to League 1

it would be cut by another 35% or so.Euell,Saga,Thomas,Davies would be out of the door like a shot. It's realisable and the management certainly have a contingency plan in place.

 

'Interesting' piece of straw-clutching, but ultimately it's not going to be quite enough is it?

 

On your figures (above) and taking those figures at face value it looks like we would need 23 gates of c13,500 at £18/head to pay the mortgage and for 'players and coaching'.

 

Can you be confident of that scenario unwinding?

 

Fewer STs sold (much, much fewer by all accounts if RL remains), much smaller walk-ups, much fewer away fans. Presumably prices of STs and match-tickets will have to slashed to attract any sort of decent take-up for Lge 1 football?

 

Can you guarantee gates of something over 13K to watch Lge 1 football, with a 'B' team version of this year's team, with the punters paying this season's prices, and with RL still in position?

 

I just can't see that happening; RL may well have a 'contingency plan in place' but unfortunately all the time he remains at the club it is anything but 'realisable'.

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Just been thinking about a couple of "worst case scenario's"

 

Scenario A:

We wait until April and we go into administration. We get 10pts deducted and almost certainly get relegated.

We then fail to come out of administration by the time the season starts so we are then deducted another 10 pts for pulling a fast one and 17 pts for not coming out of administration on time. So we start the season on -27....... which probably means Div 2 football the season after.

 

Scenario B: We enter administration now and take the 10 pt deduction. We remain in administration and the club gets broken up.

SMS Sold

Staplewood sold

Any player of any value sold.

All free agents released.

Players still under contract but no longer fancy being at saints can walk away if they find another club with the other club only paying compensation.

The Football league then say we cannot pay them the golden bond to commit to our seasons fixtures so do not allow us to start the season.

Saints cease to exist.

 

Neither sound appealing to me. I wish people would stop assuming administration is the easy way out of this mess.

 

Lowe out lol .... thats the first time i have ever typed that phrase lol Oh well.

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