Topcat

Points the gun at Reed without really naming him. "Supposedly the best run club in the Premier League is now staring into the abyss. Southampton might remain within a win of safety but more alarming even than their dreadful recent form or Saturday’s feeble 3-0 defeat against West Ham United is surely the fixture list. Seven Premier League games remain, but standing in their way are trips to Arsenal, Leicester City, Swansea City and Everton as well as home fixtures against Chelsea, Manchester City and a neighbouring Bournemouth who would love to assert themselves as the area’s outstanding team. Ahead of such a difficult sequence, it is hard not to look back at winless home matches against Swansea City, Watford, Newcastle United, Burnley, Leicester City, Huddersfield Town, Crystal Palace, Brighton and Stoke City and wonder if the damage that was done earlier in the season under Mauricio Pellegrino is already almost irreparable." "So, even allowing for a pleasing FA Cup run, what has gone wrong? Why is the model club now itself facing the prospect of a rebuild?" "The most obvious explanations relate to the managerial choices of Claude Puel and Pellegrino and the fine margins on which all 14 clubs outside the obvious ‘big six’ must operate. Both answers have merit. In hiring men without past Premier League experience, Southampton surely did underestimate the intangible need for a personality with a presence and authority that would connect with a dressing-room of footballers. The board might have rather liked the understated and intelligent way that both Puel and Pellegrino presented themselves but it is not difficult to see why the players themselves were rather more affected by Mauricio Pochettino and Ronald Koeman. Being swayed by your own perceptions of a managerial candidate before accurately gauging their likely influence and control over a group of impressionable and wealthy young men is a common pitfall." "It is too easy, though, to simply blame Southampton’s dip on the Pellegrino decision. There are more deep-rooted issues and what was once a highly effective strategy is now also showing its weaknesses. Southampton’s transfer philosophy over these past five years had essentially rested on two main foundations. The development of outstanding young players and a scouting department that was superb at identifying relatively cheap and emerging talent before selling on to clubs in the big six at a major profit. It meant progressing on the pitch while at the same time transforming the off-field finances to the point where a net debt of £38.9 million for the financial year ending 2015-16 had become £2.9 million in cash by last year. An £11 million loan was also repaid to Katharina Liebherr ahead of her selling 80 per cent of the club last summer to the Chinese Gao family for £210 million." "Nothing wrong with healthy finances but Southampton effectively also announced a subtle change to their recruitment last summer. Gone, said chairman Ralph Krueger, was any need to sell key players and the club would instead keep the core of a squad intact who, on average, had more than three years remaining on the contracts. It sounded positive – even if there should surely have been more activity in the January transfer window – but there was a flaw. For if you are just about the most celebrated ‘stepping stone’ club in European football, what profile of player might you attract? Someone personally committed to your long-term progress or someone who is most concerned by their own situation and the possibility of bridging the gap to a Champions League club? And if that does not happen because they are not quite good enough or the club themselves refuse to sell what might remain? It is a core who are rather different to the group that new manager Mark Hughes was surrounded by at Southampton in the late 1990s when their unlikely survival was as much about the character of men like Jason Dodd, Francis Benali, Claus Lundekvam, Ken Monkou, Matt Oakley, Chris Marsden and Paul Jones as Matthew Le Tissier’s genius. Much of the decline does also seem to have followed the acrimonious loss of a dressing-room figure in Jose Fonte of comparable stature. It is a delicate balance and this current board have overseen one of Southampton's best ever periods but, whether or not they do now survive, the past 18 months have underlined a need not just to review how they recruit their managers, but also the players."

The latest podcast, raises (again) the mistakes that Reed (and the Board) made in the December and January period:- 1. Not replacing Pelligrino in December to give the new Manager more time with the team (10 weeks more). 2. Not buying a striker at the start of January to give them time to get up to speed. 3. Not buying a dominating centre back at start of January to replace VVD and arguably Fonte. 4. Choosing to sit on £20m+ profit from VVD sale. It was not just one bad decision, but a series of bad decisions, that all increased the chances of us getting relegated. Madness.

Palace probably have the easiest run in. No games against the top 6. I agree with DuckHunter that Stoke still have some fight in them. They were unlucky not to get a point at Arsenal.

They should have closed this off by now or negotiating with the 2nd choice. We do not have time to waste, something that Reed needs to understand when handling transfers in.

You make some good points.

Exactly right.

A good read but you overlook the effect of the new major shareholder, Gao, based on the other side of the world who seems to lack the ability to inject any cash in and that may well have impaired the Board's ability to take major decisions quickly. None of them seem to be close to Gao.

It is the Board's decisions that have led to this. But in more recent months, they may have had their decision taking hampered by the new majority owner, Gao. If that is the case, then some of them should resign to protect their own reputations. As far as I can see, none of the Directors on this Board have ever previously worked with Gao. Gao does not appear to have his own people on this Board, but I stand to be corrected on that point.

Hong Kong are 6 hours ahead so the time window today for Board to talk with Gao was very limited. Particularly if Kreuger may not even be in Europe.

Agreed, but we lose another week which a new Manager could use to get the team into a better state.

I hope so. The Club should only focus on avoiding relegation.

There is almost no insight from within the Club on what is going on. If it is down to Gao's lack of engagement then Ralph, with his reputation to protect, should by now be dropping thoughts into the media that this is being handled exactly as the main owner wants it to. Likewise Reed who's reputation will dive into the gutter if we are relegated. There are also several lesser known Executive Directors such as the MD and the "Marketing" Director who have their longer term careers to worry about.

Maybe Gao has not given them the authority to fire Pelligrino?

Is the cause of :- 1. The indecision over Pelligrino. 2. The slow stumbling approach to buying in new players. All just the result of having a remote main owner and a Board not empowered to take major decisions? Even the window for talking to Gao may just be a few hours each day if he only makes himself available during HKG daylight hours. Add in having Ralph based in Switzerland and often in North America and we have a recipe for indecision.

Yes that may save us. Palace have 0 (of 6) games against top 6 in April whereas we have 3 (of 6). Fingers crossed that WB, WH and Stoke play worse.

Ever heard of Blackpool? " Owen Oyston and his son Karl for more than a year over claims they had taken £27million out of the club after their season in the Premier League in 2010/11. Owen Oyston, for example, paid himself a director's salary of £11million." http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/football-league/blackpool-football-club-karl-oyston-natalie-christopher-a8192231.html

Particularly when the main owner has no cash to inject as he is under Chinese restrictions on investing outside China and had to borrow the £200m to buy the 80%. To get out of the Championship will require investment in a Manager and team (transfers and wages) to get promotion and that does not come cheap.

We are getting well beaten by a team with players that last season were in the Championship.

Does it need 4-0 or 5-0 or 6-0 to finish off Pelligrino? Merrington describing it as "very worrying". Effectively a gutless performance. Local hacks saying Saints are the worst team that they have seen there this season.

Les Reed would.

It might get rid of the Club.

Why not Dennis Rofe?

Maybe it needs a 4-0 or 5-0 defeat to change the Manager?

Yes we only play with one striker because it means we are less likely to lose........... Time to walk the dog for some luck.

Carillo will have some residual value. maybe £15m? Thus only a few milion loss on him. Ashby Saint has the point, maybe the downside for Gao is just to walk away with £20m to £50m more, all of which is outside of China? Why would any "wealthy" owner really want/need to make a profit from the transfers that take place when staring at relegation? Lowe took a few million profit in the relegation season transfer window.