Topcat

Pelligrino's win % in the Prem was 16.7%, Wigley's 7.1%. Not quite as bad!

Avenue_Saint A very interesting set of facts. Are the 5 years including this season?

Reality has set in today. But when we got into a position of having to gain points off Arsenal and then beat Chelsea was when we had really lost any realistic chance of staying up. After West Ham we needed miracles.

Getting out of the Championship usually needs 26+ wins a 56%+ win ratio. This team and squad are incapable of that.

Yes "it's the mind-numbing incompetence and catalogue of disastrous decisions by Reed and co. over the last 2 seasons". It is ALL the bad decisions that will relegate us and Reed was either involved in or took every bad decision.

The truth is that it took all of these mistakes to place us in this position. If any single one of them had not been made, we would probably avoid relegation this season. The fact is that Les Reed presided over all of these bad decisions and it is the combination of all of the mistakes that will relegate us. One or two bad decisions would have been ok and acceptable. Reed is unique in getting all of them wrong.

Agreed, what foresight you have!

It has actually taken more than 6 fundamental mistakes to put us in relegation. The chances should have been that not all the mistakes would have happened together in this short period of a year. If we only had a couple of f*** ups we would have been ok. Still Les Reed will become a real expert on what not to do.

Sadly I agree.

To stay up we need 3 wins and 10+ points. 3 wins and 1 draw from 6 games is very optimistic. Palace will be safe. None of their 5 games are against top 6. 3 are at home. Huddersfield just need a win and a few draws to make it very difficult for us. But 3 of their 5 games are against top 6 clubs. They are our best chance of surviving. I agree with Pamplemousse.

"Just need 3 wins". After the last PL win against WBA, we faced 12 more PL games and it was commonly agreed that we just needed 3 more PL wins to be safe. Winning 25% of the remaining games was a realistic expectation. Now, 6 games later and after no PL wins we are faced with the same target of 3 more wins, but we now need to win 50% of the remaining games. As a target, 50% wins is frankly unrealistic and we need a miracle. Get out the prayer mats.

To stay up we need to beat Chelsea and get at least 2 other wins. We showed today that we had the spirit that might achieve that. It is the hope that will hurt.

Carillo may become the worst £ signing by Saints. I hope not.

Just as Pelligrino became distracted by FA Cup and now Hughes? Pardew also had that away win in the Cup with WBA at Liverpool in January and seemed to get over confident at WBA following that.

Points the gun at Reed without really naming him. "Supposedly the best run club in the Premier League is now staring into the abyss. Southampton might remain within a win of safety but more alarming even than their dreadful recent form or Saturday’s feeble 3-0 defeat against West Ham United is surely the fixture list. Seven Premier League games remain, but standing in their way are trips to Arsenal, Leicester City, Swansea City and Everton as well as home fixtures against Chelsea, Manchester City and a neighbouring Bournemouth who would love to assert themselves as the area’s outstanding team. Ahead of such a difficult sequence, it is hard not to look back at winless home matches against Swansea City, Watford, Newcastle United, Burnley, Leicester City, Huddersfield Town, Crystal Palace, Brighton and Stoke City and wonder if the damage that was done earlier in the season under Mauricio Pellegrino is already almost irreparable." "So, even allowing for a pleasing FA Cup run, what has gone wrong? Why is the model club now itself facing the prospect of a rebuild?" "The most obvious explanations relate to the managerial choices of Claude Puel and Pellegrino and the fine margins on which all 14 clubs outside the obvious ‘big six’ must operate. Both answers have merit. In hiring men without past Premier League experience, Southampton surely did underestimate the intangible need for a personality with a presence and authority that would connect with a dressing-room of footballers. The board might have rather liked the understated and intelligent way that both Puel and Pellegrino presented themselves but it is not difficult to see why the players themselves were rather more affected by Mauricio Pochettino and Ronald Koeman. Being swayed by your own perceptions of a managerial candidate before accurately gauging their likely influence and control over a group of impressionable and wealthy young men is a common pitfall." "It is too easy, though, to simply blame Southampton’s dip on the Pellegrino decision. There are more deep-rooted issues and what was once a highly effective strategy is now also showing its weaknesses. Southampton’s transfer philosophy over these past five years had essentially rested on two main foundations. The development of outstanding young players and a scouting department that was superb at identifying relatively cheap and emerging talent before selling on to clubs in the big six at a major profit. It meant progressing on the pitch while at the same time transforming the off-field finances to the point where a net debt of £38.9 million for the financial year ending 2015-16 had become £2.9 million in cash by last year. An £11 million loan was also repaid to Katharina Liebherr ahead of her selling 80 per cent of the club last summer to the Chinese Gao family for £210 million." "Nothing wrong with healthy finances but Southampton effectively also announced a subtle change to their recruitment last summer. Gone, said chairman Ralph Krueger, was any need to sell key players and the club would instead keep the core of a squad intact who, on average, had more than three years remaining on the contracts. It sounded positive – even if there should surely have been more activity in the January transfer window – but there was a flaw. For if you are just about the most celebrated ‘stepping stone’ club in European football, what profile of player might you attract? Someone personally committed to your long-term progress or someone who is most concerned by their own situation and the possibility of bridging the gap to a Champions League club? And if that does not happen because they are not quite good enough or the club themselves refuse to sell what might remain? It is a core who are rather different to the group that new manager Mark Hughes was surrounded by at Southampton in the late 1990s when their unlikely survival was as much about the character of men like Jason Dodd, Francis Benali, Claus Lundekvam, Ken Monkou, Matt Oakley, Chris Marsden and Paul Jones as Matthew Le Tissier’s genius. Much of the decline does also seem to have followed the acrimonious loss of a dressing-room figure in Jose Fonte of comparable stature. It is a delicate balance and this current board have overseen one of Southampton's best ever periods but, whether or not they do now survive, the past 18 months have underlined a need not just to review how they recruit their managers, but also the players."

The latest podcast, raises (again) the mistakes that Reed (and the Board) made in the December and January period:- 1. Not replacing Pelligrino in December to give the new Manager more time with the team (10 weeks more). 2. Not buying a striker at the start of January to give them time to get up to speed. 3. Not buying a dominating centre back at start of January to replace VVD and arguably Fonte. 4. Choosing to sit on £20m+ profit from VVD sale. It was not just one bad decision, but a series of bad decisions, that all increased the chances of us getting relegated. Madness.

Palace probably have the easiest run in. No games against the top 6. I agree with DuckHunter that Stoke still have some fight in them. They were unlucky not to get a point at Arsenal.

They should have closed this off by now or negotiating with the 2nd choice. We do not have time to waste, something that Reed needs to understand when handling transfers in.

You make some good points.

Exactly right.

A good read but you overlook the effect of the new major shareholder, Gao, based on the other side of the world who seems to lack the ability to inject any cash in and that may well have impaired the Board's ability to take major decisions quickly. None of them seem to be close to Gao.

It is the Board's decisions that have led to this. But in more recent months, they may have had their decision taking hampered by the new majority owner, Gao. If that is the case, then some of them should resign to protect their own reputations. As far as I can see, none of the Directors on this Board have ever previously worked with Gao. Gao does not appear to have his own people on this Board, but I stand to be corrected on that point.

Hong Kong are 6 hours ahead so the time window today for Board to talk with Gao was very limited. Particularly if Kreuger may not even be in Europe.

Agreed, but we lose another week which a new Manager could use to get the team into a better state.

I hope so. The Club should only focus on avoiding relegation.