CB Fry

Stop posting these stupid examples. I don't give a shit. Total expected points x percentage expected to achieve = points for the second half of the season. 5 tough games, 10% of the 15 points available. Other clusters of games its forty or thirty percent. The points add up to a total which can then be achieved through wins or draws. I got it at first glance. Its a bit pessimistic but its a perfectly fine way of looking at it. You don't like it but that doesn't make it wrong.

You can't get one and a half points from five games without drawing (at least) one. Literally (numerically) a prediction of a couple of draws. Its a simple model taking a percentage of the available points to get to a total for the season. You don't like it, but its a perfectly fine way of looking at it. Doesn't make it, or me, "wrong" in any way. It's a bit of prediction fun on a forum and I thank Spyinthesky for posting it up. It's comfortably pessimistic so is a great confidence builder.

Feels completely implausible but if it genuinely in the Telegraph then maybe.....

Well we got significantly fewer points in the second half of last season than the first, so God only knows how that makes any model wrong. Its a perfectly appropriate stance to take. 1.5 points from 5 tough games equals two draws at best, one draw at worst. Again a realistic, pragmatic prediction. You can, if you like, do this weird routine where you pretend I am denying the existence of draws but it's there in the first post and I have referenced it multiple times. 1.5 points from 5 tough games = one or two draws. Pretty accurate prediction in my mind. How many points have we got from the last five games against those teams? Shall I tell you? Two. From draws. As in the model shown. Easy, aint it. You might not like it but a % of available points is a perfectly sensible approach. The available points for five games = 15 points. The available points for five games with draws added in, draws draws draws draws is....still 15 points. We a get 10% of those points for some games, or we can get 40%. Pretty easy to understand. Try it.

Hahaha you f**king retard. 1.5 points from 5 tough games: assumes draws. 9 points from 5 easier games, assumes draws. 17 points or so from 17 games, assumes draws. Every prediction thing in the history of this forum that entails "we'll get 11 points/4 points/ 9 points from the next 4/5/7 games" assumes draws. It doesn't need spelling out. That first post is a rudimentary prediction model that you are wanking on about like it is Newton's Law. Clumps of clubs lumped together as 10% chance of winning, 30% chance of winning etc. Just fag packet stuff plucked out of the sky and your issue is that there isn't a "predicted draws" equation bolted onto it. Absolute joke you plank. I'll repeat I got it straight away. First reading, first look. Some points there, more points there, 17 points more or less. Bit pessimistic but I like it. At first viewing I knew it assumed draws and I know it still does. Draws are in there from post one. In the points total, in every sub section. You can crack on creating your own model if you like with your jolly exciting "expected draws" because that's all they talk about down the pub. Expected draws. f**k me.

Absolutely no doubt there are photos if required.

That's your best shot now? Thank you and good night.

Drip, drip, drip, drip.

"Chance of drawing" isn't a thing you absolute f**king plank. 15 available points from five tough games, a prediction we'll get 10% of those points, so a point and a half therefore a draw at worst, two draws at best. You don't need a "chance of drawing" calculator on top. Points gained from draws are just intrinsic in the model. It's there. Absolutely laughable that you are rage typing in bold and underlined about something so basic. You're also making things up from the opening post now: the phrase "five long shots at a win" is not there. Honestly give it up. Embarrassing.

You can't get 1.5 points from winning a game. There's a five game cluster with 1.5 points attached to it, which clearly shows a prediction that we will draw one or two of those games and win none. You basically become massively hung up on the phrase "chance of winning". All it actually is a proxy to get to an assumption that we will pick up a % of points from groups of games - 10% from hard games, 60% from easier games - so 1.5 points here, 9 points there. We won't win all games, we won't lose all the ones we won't win, we will draw some. Hence 1.5 points in some cases, hence 17 points as a working assumption which is impossible to achieve by just wins. Over thinking it, massively, and then writing tantrums in bold UNDERLINED IN CAPITALS....absolutely laughable I got it in post one, in seconds. You are still raging and raging and raging. You continue to embarrass yourself. Personally I am looking forward to the mods splitting this off into its own thread.

I don't need to read whatever it is you have rage-typed, as I understood the opening post of the thread, at first glance, right from the off. You've admitted that you didn't (apparently it's "impossible") but that's your issue not mine.

Needs more bold font and CAPITALS and underlines sweetheart.

At least you're taking it well.

All there on the thread. Some of us understood it at first glance. Others, let's call them you, started blathering on about how someone predicting one or two points from five games doesn't, er, know how many points you get for a draw. Or, when the phrase "available points" is used, it already includes points available for a draw. Bless x x

Well done on getting there in the end. I'm proud of you.

Its not me that looks at a prediction of one and a half points from 5 tough games and interprets it as "this person doesn't know how many points you get from a draw". Really not that complicated.

Like I say, you're massively over thinking it.

I think you are just massively massively over thinking it. 5 difficult games, 15 points up for grabs, but predict to get maybe one or two points - ie two draws at best. I don't see what you doing Pythagoras routine is adding to that prediction - it's a perfectly sound guess - 15 points but we'll likely get 10% of those points. Makes perfect sense. For the other end of the scale - the "easier games" - again 15 points up for grabs, but it make an assumption we'll get 9 points from them. 3 wins. Maybe two wins, three draws. That ballpark, 60% of the points available. Again, makes perfect sense. So far this season (including yesterday now) we've got 38% of the available points, this predictor (created before yesterday) assumes we'd get 35% of the remaining points. So if anything it is on the pessimistic side, but it's a perfectly sound set of predictions, and even with this pessimistic prediction it bottoms out that we are going to stay up. All makes perfect sense.

Sorry this makes no sense to me. If a predictor looks at say 5 tough games and comes back with a forecast of 1.5 points for those games then that means in reality that the forecaster thinks we are likely to draw one or maybe two of those five games. You don't need a separate and additional "likelihood of a draw" calculator on top. Just utterly pointless when the work is already done: five tough games, 1.5 points: we probably won't win any but we might draw one or two. Done. Pretty simple and obvious to me. I genuinely don't understand what you don't understand.

Mad for it.

Let's call it a draw and all go home.

You might as well put the league table up, we're home and dry.

Feels like our best available first eleven. Happy with that.

Feels fanciful to me, and based almost entirely on the fact that Norwich just so happened to win yesterday. If Leeds win then that goes a long way to helping their relegation fears and further fucks over Newcastle. A draw makes it more likely that they both stay up (because Leeds aren't going down) than it makes it likely that they both go down. Newcastle to lose every time.

Leeds and Newcastle are not both going to go down this season, that's a pointless hope. Leeds to win convincingly please. Newcastle getting zero points is what we should want a) as Saints fans and b) as people who f**king hate Newcastle now