There was a sensible article on Radio 4 about this subject
One of the reasosn may be that medical treatments mean that some people who are shot or knifed are surviving
Seems logical
My variations all need Colchester and Huddersfield to be a draw
Then Our fate is - can Huddersfield lose one other match? More than possible
Of course, Saints need to win every match, but I believe we have the desire