SaintBobby

I rounded to the nearest whole number. Fifteen points is probably about 99.95% The goal difference being overhauled is so monumentally unlikely. At that point, you might as well start factoring in the chance that we end up getting deducted 3 points, or whatever, for fielding an ineligible player etc. So, not even 16 points would be nailed on because if we didn't complete the paperwork around Dale Stephens' transfer, for example, we might get a points penalty.

Nice stats. I think we have a fair chance of getting something out of each and every one of those four games. On paper, Brighton the toughest, obviously. If we win those four games...and beat Hartelpool and Walsall at SMS ...we'd have taken at least 3 points off every team in the division. But, here's the thing....being a little less optimistic....if we get draws or wins away at Rochdale, Brentford and Plymouth, then NO ONE will have done the double over us in the League this year. When did that last happen?

I worked out that 9 points will probably do it, just.

It's amazingly unlikely that Huddersfield will win all five of their remaining games. As I said on a previosu thread when someone reckoned they'd win their remaining six, the chances of this were prob around 100/1. Looking at their five matches, I'd say their odds are approximately: 7/4 to beat Charlton A 2/1 to beat MK Dons A 1/3 to beat Dagenham H 5/2 to beat Brighton A 1/2 to beat Brentford H To win all of them - on a accumulator - would therefore be odds of around 57/1. So although we do need 15 points from here to be copper-bottomed certain, this target drops if Huddersfield drop any points at all. The chance of them dropping at least some points is somewhere around 98% or more. If this 98% chance comes up, our target is 13 points or lower. Keeping half an eye on Peterborough, we need 12 points to stay above them even if they win all their remaining five games. Even on a pessimistic (from our point of view) look at the odds in their last five fixtures, they are longer than 20/1 to win the lot. So there's a 95% chance that we will need 10 points or less to stay ahead of Peterborough. At a rough bag-of-fag packet calculation, it would be fair to look at this way. Saints get another 15 points = 100% certain of automatic promotion Saints get another 14 points = 99% certain of automatic promotion Saints get another 13 points = 98% certain of automatic promotion Saints get another 12 points = 92% certain of automatic promotion Saints get another 11 points = 80% certain of automatic promotion Saints get another 10 ponts = 70% certain of automatic promotion Saints get another 9 points = 60% certain of automatic promotion Saints get another 8 points = 35% certain of automatic promotion Saints get another 7 points = 20% certain of automatic promotion Saints get another 6 points = 10% certain of automatic promotion Saints get less than 5 pts = virtually 0% chance of automatic promotion I might try and work these numbers out more thoroughly if I can be @rsed, but they won't be way, way off.

But as pointed out before, that's the equivalent of saying in early August, "we need 137 points to guarantee winning the league, anyone who says we only need 95 is a loon" It's not just that you were so wrong that was amazing...it was the complete certainty and extremity with which you expressed your wrongness...

Strange prediction.....

I'd say it's deeply, deeply unlikely. They've been amazingly consistent and there just aren't enough games left to catch them really. It's maybe a 1% or 2% chance...no higher. May as well aim for it. But I agree with those who will be cheering Brighton on against Huddersfield.

Yeah, sorry to say, I don't think you'll make the play-offs now. Shame, would have been great to have had 4 south coast teams in the NPC. You're right though that 8th is a good final position for AFCB though, all in all.

Fonte for me. Immense performance. Very honourable mentions to Jaidi, Barnard and Lambert.

We should be big, big favourites for our remaining home games (Bristol R, Hartlepool and Walsall). Our home form over the past 18 games is W 14 D 3 L 1, I think. We've got a really tough part of the run in out of the way in style. 22 points from a possible 24 in the last eight games is superb. Little surprise we're now 1/10 with some bookies to be promoted... A win on Tuesday and we'll nearly be able to touch the NPC.

I don't think anyone is surprised that you overstated the number of points we needed. Do you still think we're likely only to be in the play-offs?

Just to confirm. The answer to theOP's question is"yes"

Walsall could be an odd one. If we need a win or draw to nail promotion, I'd guess it would sell out. But if we've been promoted already, will tickets sell on a "come and celebrate" idea or not?

I find it quite amusing. When he gets tied up in his own twisted illogic, he just drops the whole line of argument and tries to move onto something else. It's quite sweet, really

11 points will do it. 12 or more and it's a near certainty. I think we'd possibly scrape it with 9 or 10. Technically, it's 16 to be 100% mathematically certain - or 15 if you make the reasonable assumption that our GD holds up. I wonder at what point Huddersfield and Peterborough rest players in anticipation of the play offs? I expect both these teams to drop a good few points in the remaining league games.

I'm not being "smug after the fact". I said we'd need 20 points to go up with ten games to go. You said 28. You said people expressing the 20 point view were "loons". Not for the first time, you were wrong. In this instance, colossally wrong. There's no "after the fact" about it....

I think we still need about 28 points to guarantee promotion. Lol. Nervy 2nd half but awesome win. Fonte was superb. Bit odd to end the game with four centre backs and no wingers, but all good stuff!

Is there any general consensus on which pub(s) are good for away fans near the ground? I went to the 2-2 last year, but my memory's like a sieve.

3 people (so far) think a Huddersfield win is the best result for us....?????

Def prefer 2 games to 2 points at this stage. A return of 3 points from next two games keeps us well on track.

A Peterborough win for me.

I think you can get about 80/1 or better.

One for nostalgia really. Not saying he's a bad player, but I don't imagine,say, Brighton or Crystal Palace or Burnley fans would be remotely excited about signing him. Neither should we. He could probably do a job for us. But let's not pretend he can bring back the 2002/3/4 glory days. It's all too sentimental.

Amen to that. It wld be possible to even win the division if we did. I don't think this is a thread though about whetehr people want to see Saints win all our remaining games. It's really a discussion about how badly we can do and still get promoted.

What about one point ahead?