SaintBobby

But that's an extraordinary innumerate way of looking at it. At the start of the season, you'd need 136 points to guarantee becoming champions - and, I think, 131 points to guarantee automatic promotion. You'd also need 70 points to guarantee you weren't relegated. But, clearly, these numbers fall almost as soon as the season starts. In reality, you're going to need c.90 points to win the league, c.48 points to stay up etc. The same thing happens over the last ten games. The number of points needed to guarantee a certain outcome will almost certainly be measurably higher than the number of points you need to achieve a certain outcome. I think I'm correct in saying (but haven't double checked the thread, so apols in advance if I'm wrong), that with ten games to go, your view was that we would need 28 points to achieve promotion and those who were saying it could be achieved with 20 points were "loons". Again, I'd need to double check, but I think your 28 points target was possibly even over and beyond what was needed to guarantee promotion. (just noted - you concede this above) It seems to me the "loons" (those who predicted 20 points needed with ten games left) remain well on course for being right. Your own 28 point prediction has, of course, been blown apart within just two games. I'll leave others to judge who is blessed with good numeracy skills and who isn't.

If you don't mind me asking, what have you been correct in the past about?

Seconded. No frills. But perfectly adequate.

Do I have this right? 1. You think we could probably sell Oxo for £10m 2. You think we could easily sell Guly in the future for more than Oxo 3. You therefore think we could easily sell Guly in the future for more than £10m Hmmm....I'm not sure I'm yet totally persuaded of point 1.....

That's a fair assessment. I've been more impressed with his "outfield" play this year than I was last year. It's too easy to just think of your best striker in "goals scored" terms, I guess. I just wonder though - does he have measurably more assists than last year? Also, has he had less opportunities from the penalty spot or from free kicks on the edge of the box compared to last term?

I think, on balance, you're right. The only issue is that Huddersfield have a much more difficult final six games. So, although the "spot price" is that it looks like they are the bigger threat to 2nd place, were Posh to win o9n Saturday, it puts them firmly back in play. So, my instinct was to be a coward and hope for a draw. Overall, though, a Posh win puts our destiny so firmly in our own hands that I think you're right.

It's offering a better rate of return than my savings account at Barclays, which I think pays about 0.2% a month. If I make a 25% return in a month, I'm happy. I'd say our chances or promotion are now about 1/6, so 1/4 is a very attractive bet. I snapped up all the available bets at 1.33 and lower. The money isn't locked on betfair, of course, as you can lay it off at any time.

That's staggeringly bad. I think we'd probably have taken c.1,500 tonight to the Valley even if we were mid-table with nothing to play for.

I'm actually treating this game as a bonus game. Think we could well win, but I wouldn't be miserable with a point. If we have players who are marginal on fitness (Lallana? Harding?), I'd probably rest them.

I wasn't able to go at at the last minute. The impression from the commentary was that Lambert was having a poor-ish game, so interesting to hear different feedback from those who were there. Although I wouldn't compare Rickie to Le God, I'd say our present no.7 does seem to have the ability to make an impact at a few crucial moments even if he's not outstanding for the full 90. The Mk Dons game was testament to this. On injuries....have we really been particularly unlucky? I'd say our record this season on players crocked is about average....

Should add that I've just put £100 on at 1.25 (same as 1/4) on betfair on Saints being promoted. This is a very attractive bet and some money is still available at those odds. Snap them up.

We now need about 14 points from our remaining eight games. It would be staggering if we needed more than this. And utterly staggering if we needed much more. How anyone could have reached the conclusion that we needed 28 points from our last ten games bewilders me. It's just basic innumeracy. Even now, the mathematically certain "ask" has fallen to 26 (of which we have collected six), and this certain threshold falls further as and when Huddersfield drop more points. The odds, by the way, of Huddersfield winning all their remaining 6 games is approximately 100/1. Not impossible, but deeply, deeply unlikely. The further they fall from this, the easier our target. We shouldn't completely lose sight of Posh. If they win all their remaining games (probably about 80/1) we would still need 17 points - maybe 18 - to stay ahead of them. But the very strong likelihood now is that 14 points will do it. 15 or 16 will make it a near certainty. 17+ and a miracle would be needed to stop us. This is reflected in the available odds from any bookmaker.

we were mathematically safe some time ago I think...some of the bottom four need to play each other, don't they? not that relegation was looming large in my list of fears...

This.

Seriously? You based your view of our first half performance on a ten word text message from a friend???? Gees.....

Sorry to dissent. I thought we were pretty good for the first 60 minutes. Not great. Not inspiring. But if you'd shown me the first 60 minutes on video and then said "we've deleted the footage of any goals", I would have reasonably guessed we were a goal or two ahead. I simply can't get my head around some poster(s) saying the first half display was amongst the worst he's ever seen us play. It's not even the worst I've seen us play in the last 14 days. I guess there's always a tendency to hyperbolise amongst fans. I'm prone to it too. I've probably watched about 400 Saints games in person and maybe another 50+ on TV. But I still find myself saying "that was the dullest game ever" or "that was the unluckiest defeat ever" or "that was the most pitiful surrender ever" or "that was the most amazing comeback ever". The truth is that we exaggerate in the moment (this is captured better on SWF than at a live game because there's an audit trail). The game on Saturday was probably in the top 10% of Saints games I've seen for entertainment. But it wasn't even the best comeback I've seen.

A lot depends on our ambitions and the five year plan. I think the present squad is probably good enough to come mid-table in the NPC. Say, about 12th-14th. I think the issues are as follows: 1. Do we lose AOC anyway? If so, we're going to be £5m+ richer, but definitely need some serious investment on the wings. If not, then AOC as RM and Adam as LM seems to me to be a better pair of 1st choice wide players than we are likely to be able to afford/attract. 2. Central defence. We almost certainly need a serious investment in partnering Fonte. 3. Can Lambert cut it in the NPC? I think this is a huge issue, but one that's tough to answer. I'm actually a bit more confident of Barnard in the NPC than Lambert. Am not saying ditch Rickie. Not at all. But if he's not going to be the main man, we may need to at least think about a £1m-£2m striker. What worries me is that I'm not sure there's a middle road here. We either need to have him as the striker we're hoping to get 20+ goals from or get someone else in. Him being okayish and getting 10-12 goals would mean we were slightly hamstrung. 4. Central midfield. This is probably where I'd make the biggest investment. I like Morgan a lot, but wonder whether he will emerge as a superb rather than merely technically impressive player. If he can, we need to find him a partner he can work with. I'm not anti-Hammond or Chaplow, but not inspired by them either. I'd probably give them bothy a 7/10 in League One and maybe a 6/10 in the Championship. To invest in a player who is an 8.5 or 9 in the NPC in central midfield and can act as the engine room would be a huge boost. 5. Is there a goalkeeper issue? I think not. Kelvin as no.1 and easing in Bart as his replacement seems more than fine to me. But I do think this is a debatable area. 6. Are Harding and Butterfield good enough? In my view "yes", but I probably want better cover for Harding (neither Dickson nor a recalled Mills cut the mustard for me). I'm yet to be persuaded by Richardson as cover at RB, but am willing to give him more time.

Don't ignore goal difference. If it does get bloody close, our superior GD cld be crucial. I suppose one way to look at it is what will be the case as we enter our final game at home to Walsall? There are a zillion permutations before then, but in order of likelihood (and ruling out extreme wins for any team such as a 14-0), I'd place the scenarios in order of likelihood as follows: 1. Saints need a draw to guarantee promotion 2. Saints need a win to guarantee promotion 3. Saints have already been promoted irrespective of the result 4. Saints need a win or a draw, but also need results elsewhere to go their way (e.g. a Huddersfield failure to beat Brentford) 5. Saints are mathematically incapable of making 2nd place

I'm not sure this is right. Is it? It's not really a matter of "dropping" points. It's how many points you can raise. If Huddersfield "drop" 5 points, but we lose our three tough away games, then we've "dropped" 9 points, haven't we? The basic maths (which I screwed up above) is that we need to win 5 points more than Huddersfield, with us having 9 games left and them having six. That means the absolute worst case scenario is that they win 18 points and we need 23. If you think they will drop 5 points, that means them getting 13 points from 6 games and we'd need 18 points from our remaining 9 games. Despite their excellent form recently, they have a very tough set of fixtures, I'd probably put them to get ten points (W 3 D 1 L 2) or eleven points (W 3 D 2 L 1) , which would leave us needing 16 points to be promoted. Barring some utterly mad results (e.g. Huddersfield winning their "win" games 6-0 and us only winning ours 1-0), our superior goal difference will hold good and that's worth 1/2 a point. So if we end up equal on points with them, we are almost certainly going to end up above them. I think on balance I want Hudd v Posh to be draw. But if not I want Posh to win. A Hudd win is definitely the worst outcome.

I think the way to look at it now is that it's been us and Huddersfield for 2nd place. (Peterborough could just about do it, but would need both Saints and Huddersfield to trip up badly) The maths are therefore pretty simple. We need to get five more points than Huddersfield. Huddersfield's remaining fixtures are: Peterborough (H) Charlton (A) MK Dons (A) Dag & Red (H) Brighton (A) Brentford (H) work out what you think Huddersfield will get from that lot, add five, and that's what we need basically. If you think Huddersfield are going to perform really badly, then take a look at Posh's games. However many points they get in seven games, we'd need to get one less in nine games. I'd say we most likely need around 16 points for second spot. 21 points from the next 9 games makes promotion a mathematical certainty.

We came back from 0-2 to beat Fulham 4-2 in the Premiership.

No it wasn't. We weren't great for the first 52 minutes and couldn't get a shot away, but I thought we were the better team through out the match. We didn't deserve to be two down at any stage.

We shouldn't have gone two nil down. Two sucker punches really. But great, great character from the team. Seems the wrist slitters were out in force on here, but the crowd at St Marys were great even at 0-2. We are now very heavy favourites for automatic promotion. Great game. Great day. Coyr

The most pivotal game of the season will probably end up being Walsall at St Marys....