SaintBobby

I assumed he meant against the position as it stands now. I.E. The question is basically, which do you think is more likely: 1. Saints at least matching Huddersfield's result on the last day of the season (discounting Posh for sake of argument - which the OP seems to) or 2. Saints overtaking Huddersfield and Peterborough from where we stand today? I think it's 2....just.

My apols - you're right. I was only comparing us to Huddersfield.

The number of intervening days is 3. Well, about 3.1 until full time whistle on Saturday. HTH.

Innumerately, at a guess.

Here's the latest missive from my mathematical father: "I have a few disagreements with your calculations, but agree your £250 investment seems to be a good bet. If we still see Southampton's target as 20 points from last ten games, they are now well on track to achieve this. 14 points from the remaining 8 games only requires 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats. This seems very realistic - unless injuries become a problem (have they so far?). If you achieve this, the only two teams that statistically now stand any chance of catching you are Huddersfield and Peterborough. In my view Peterborough have the tougher run in - away games against three of the top eight teams (Huddersfield, Leyton Orient and Rochdale) as well as a home game against Bournemouth. In order to catch you on 85 points, they would need to win at least five of their final six games, and at least draw the remaining one. So I clearly see Huddersield as the bigger threat. They have a somewhat easier run in and only need 12 points from 6 games to get to 85 points. Much easier – 4 wins and 2 defeats will suffice. So, unless you know something I don’t, I see little justification for you putting Huddersfield finishing below Peterborough in the table. I feel a Peterborough win against Huddersfield on Saturday is in your best interests, a draw OK, but a Huddersfield win highly undesirable. A defeat for you against Leyton Orient could be taken in your stride, a draw would be fine, and a win would again shorten your odds of promotion further. So my revised probabilities of finishing second are now Southampton 75% Huddersfield 20% Peterborough 5% So, with the same ‘play off’ calculation, Southampton's probability of promotion today is 0.75 + 0.35 x 0.33 = 0.87 which equates to odds of about 1/6. So if you can get 1/4, it looks a good bet. Recalculations will be required on Saturday!"

Yeah, well, I wouldn't say any of those predictions are as "brave" as suggesting that Guly will be sold for £11m+

I think your predictions are pretty realistic. If they turn out to be right, we will (to all intents and purposes), be promoted at Plymouth. The last game of the season will be almost entriely irrelevant (if you're happy to discount the possibility of us losing 6-0 to walsall and Huddesrfield beating Brentford 8-0....or somethignn similarly mental)

It very probably is. Not certain, of course...but if we win 5 and lose 3 of our remaining 8 games, we are very, very likely to be promoted.

To assume that Huddersfield will win their next 6 games is one hell of an assumption! My suggested odds of 100/1 were slightly back-of-fag-packet, but won't be far off. It's definitely a long, long shot, and 50/1 at best. If you seriously think they will win every game - or even that it's a fairish chance - put £50 on them to beat Peterborough and then keep putting your winnings on Huddersfield for each of their next five games. If Huddersfield end up on 91 points, you'll end up with several thousand pounds in your back pocket (can't be @rsed to do the maths - but somewhere between 3K and 6K)

Being on an unknown part of the spectrum from automatic promotion guaranteed to automatic promotion being out of reach. HTH

Am pretty sure we'll be abck in stripes for the home kit. Possibility of sash and yellow/blue colours for away kit, perhaps?

Probably, just on balance, I wouldn't take it. My own view is that we should be enetring the last game in 2nd place - ahead on points. The variance is pretty huge though - one unlucky bounce or missed penalty could change the lot. Put another way, we are 2/7 to come second. I imagine we'd only be something like 1/2 or 2/5 to beat Walsall. I'd say those odds are about right, and so I'd prefer to be 2/7 over the 8 remianing games rather than 1/2 with one game left - although factoring in a possibel Huddersfield draw or defeat may make the odds near identical. Not much in it.

But that's an extraordinary innumerate way of looking at it. At the start of the season, you'd need 136 points to guarantee becoming champions - and, I think, 131 points to guarantee automatic promotion. You'd also need 70 points to guarantee you weren't relegated. But, clearly, these numbers fall almost as soon as the season starts. In reality, you're going to need c.90 points to win the league, c.48 points to stay up etc. The same thing happens over the last ten games. The number of points needed to guarantee a certain outcome will almost certainly be measurably higher than the number of points you need to achieve a certain outcome. I think I'm correct in saying (but haven't double checked the thread, so apols in advance if I'm wrong), that with ten games to go, your view was that we would need 28 points to achieve promotion and those who were saying it could be achieved with 20 points were "loons". Again, I'd need to double check, but I think your 28 points target was possibly even over and beyond what was needed to guarantee promotion. (just noted - you concede this above) It seems to me the "loons" (those who predicted 20 points needed with ten games left) remain well on course for being right. Your own 28 point prediction has, of course, been blown apart within just two games. I'll leave others to judge who is blessed with good numeracy skills and who isn't.

If you don't mind me asking, what have you been correct in the past about?

Seconded. No frills. But perfectly adequate.

Do I have this right? 1. You think we could probably sell Oxo for £10m 2. You think we could easily sell Guly in the future for more than Oxo 3. You therefore think we could easily sell Guly in the future for more than £10m Hmmm....I'm not sure I'm yet totally persuaded of point 1.....

That's a fair assessment. I've been more impressed with his "outfield" play this year than I was last year. It's too easy to just think of your best striker in "goals scored" terms, I guess. I just wonder though - does he have measurably more assists than last year? Also, has he had less opportunities from the penalty spot or from free kicks on the edge of the box compared to last term?

I think, on balance, you're right. The only issue is that Huddersfield have a much more difficult final six games. So, although the "spot price" is that it looks like they are the bigger threat to 2nd place, were Posh to win o9n Saturday, it puts them firmly back in play. So, my instinct was to be a coward and hope for a draw. Overall, though, a Posh win puts our destiny so firmly in our own hands that I think you're right.

It's offering a better rate of return than my savings account at Barclays, which I think pays about 0.2% a month. If I make a 25% return in a month, I'm happy. I'd say our chances or promotion are now about 1/6, so 1/4 is a very attractive bet. I snapped up all the available bets at 1.33 and lower. The money isn't locked on betfair, of course, as you can lay it off at any time.

That's staggeringly bad. I think we'd probably have taken c.1,500 tonight to the Valley even if we were mid-table with nothing to play for.

I'm actually treating this game as a bonus game. Think we could well win, but I wouldn't be miserable with a point. If we have players who are marginal on fitness (Lallana? Harding?), I'd probably rest them.

I wasn't able to go at at the last minute. The impression from the commentary was that Lambert was having a poor-ish game, so interesting to hear different feedback from those who were there. Although I wouldn't compare Rickie to Le God, I'd say our present no.7 does seem to have the ability to make an impact at a few crucial moments even if he's not outstanding for the full 90. The Mk Dons game was testament to this. On injuries....have we really been particularly unlucky? I'd say our record this season on players crocked is about average....

Should add that I've just put £100 on at 1.25 (same as 1/4) on betfair on Saints being promoted. This is a very attractive bet and some money is still available at those odds. Snap them up.

We now need about 14 points from our remaining eight games. It would be staggering if we needed more than this. And utterly staggering if we needed much more. How anyone could have reached the conclusion that we needed 28 points from our last ten games bewilders me. It's just basic innumeracy. Even now, the mathematically certain "ask" has fallen to 26 (of which we have collected six), and this certain threshold falls further as and when Huddersfield drop more points. The odds, by the way, of Huddersfield winning all their remaining 6 games is approximately 100/1. Not impossible, but deeply, deeply unlikely. The further they fall from this, the easier our target. We shouldn't completely lose sight of Posh. If they win all their remaining games (probably about 80/1) we would still need 17 points - maybe 18 - to stay ahead of them. But the very strong likelihood now is that 14 points will do it. 15 or 16 will make it a near certainty. 17+ and a miracle would be needed to stop us. This is reflected in the available odds from any bookmaker.

we were mathematically safe some time ago I think...some of the bottom four need to play each other, don't they? not that relegation was looming large in my list of fears...