SaintBobby

Walsall could be an odd one. If we need a win or draw to nail promotion, I'd guess it would sell out. But if we've been promoted already, will tickets sell on a "come and celebrate" idea or not?

I find it quite amusing. When he gets tied up in his own twisted illogic, he just drops the whole line of argument and tries to move onto something else. It's quite sweet, really

11 points will do it. 12 or more and it's a near certainty. I think we'd possibly scrape it with 9 or 10. Technically, it's 16 to be 100% mathematically certain - or 15 if you make the reasonable assumption that our GD holds up. I wonder at what point Huddersfield and Peterborough rest players in anticipation of the play offs? I expect both these teams to drop a good few points in the remaining league games.

I'm not being "smug after the fact". I said we'd need 20 points to go up with ten games to go. You said 28. You said people expressing the 20 point view were "loons". Not for the first time, you were wrong. In this instance, colossally wrong. There's no "after the fact" about it....

I think we still need about 28 points to guarantee promotion. Lol. Nervy 2nd half but awesome win. Fonte was superb. Bit odd to end the game with four centre backs and no wingers, but all good stuff!

Is there any general consensus on which pub(s) are good for away fans near the ground? I went to the 2-2 last year, but my memory's like a sieve.

3 people (so far) think a Huddersfield win is the best result for us....?????

Def prefer 2 games to 2 points at this stage. A return of 3 points from next two games keeps us well on track.

A Peterborough win for me.

I think you can get about 80/1 or better.

One for nostalgia really. Not saying he's a bad player, but I don't imagine,say, Brighton or Crystal Palace or Burnley fans would be remotely excited about signing him. Neither should we. He could probably do a job for us. But let's not pretend he can bring back the 2002/3/4 glory days. It's all too sentimental.

Amen to that. It wld be possible to even win the division if we did. I don't think this is a thread though about whetehr people want to see Saints win all our remaining games. It's really a discussion about how badly we can do and still get promoted.

What about one point ahead?

I assumed he meant against the position as it stands now. I.E. The question is basically, which do you think is more likely: 1. Saints at least matching Huddersfield's result on the last day of the season (discounting Posh for sake of argument - which the OP seems to) or 2. Saints overtaking Huddersfield and Peterborough from where we stand today? I think it's 2....just.

My apols - you're right. I was only comparing us to Huddersfield.

The number of intervening days is 3. Well, about 3.1 until full time whistle on Saturday. HTH.

Innumerately, at a guess.

Here's the latest missive from my mathematical father: "I have a few disagreements with your calculations, but agree your £250 investment seems to be a good bet. If we still see Southampton's target as 20 points from last ten games, they are now well on track to achieve this. 14 points from the remaining 8 games only requires 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats. This seems very realistic - unless injuries become a problem (have they so far?). If you achieve this, the only two teams that statistically now stand any chance of catching you are Huddersfield and Peterborough. In my view Peterborough have the tougher run in - away games against three of the top eight teams (Huddersfield, Leyton Orient and Rochdale) as well as a home game against Bournemouth. In order to catch you on 85 points, they would need to win at least five of their final six games, and at least draw the remaining one. So I clearly see Huddersield as the bigger threat. They have a somewhat easier run in and only need 12 points from 6 games to get to 85 points. Much easier – 4 wins and 2 defeats will suffice. So, unless you know something I don’t, I see little justification for you putting Huddersfield finishing below Peterborough in the table. I feel a Peterborough win against Huddersfield on Saturday is in your best interests, a draw OK, but a Huddersfield win highly undesirable. A defeat for you against Leyton Orient could be taken in your stride, a draw would be fine, and a win would again shorten your odds of promotion further. So my revised probabilities of finishing second are now Southampton 75% Huddersfield 20% Peterborough 5% So, with the same ‘play off’ calculation, Southampton's probability of promotion today is 0.75 + 0.35 x 0.33 = 0.87 which equates to odds of about 1/6. So if you can get 1/4, it looks a good bet. Recalculations will be required on Saturday!"

Yeah, well, I wouldn't say any of those predictions are as "brave" as suggesting that Guly will be sold for £11m+

I think your predictions are pretty realistic. If they turn out to be right, we will (to all intents and purposes), be promoted at Plymouth. The last game of the season will be almost entriely irrelevant (if you're happy to discount the possibility of us losing 6-0 to walsall and Huddesrfield beating Brentford 8-0....or somethignn similarly mental)

It very probably is. Not certain, of course...but if we win 5 and lose 3 of our remaining 8 games, we are very, very likely to be promoted.

To assume that Huddersfield will win their next 6 games is one hell of an assumption! My suggested odds of 100/1 were slightly back-of-fag-packet, but won't be far off. It's definitely a long, long shot, and 50/1 at best. If you seriously think they will win every game - or even that it's a fairish chance - put £50 on them to beat Peterborough and then keep putting your winnings on Huddersfield for each of their next five games. If Huddersfield end up on 91 points, you'll end up with several thousand pounds in your back pocket (can't be @rsed to do the maths - but somewhere between 3K and 6K)

Being on an unknown part of the spectrum from automatic promotion guaranteed to automatic promotion being out of reach. HTH

Am pretty sure we'll be abck in stripes for the home kit. Possibility of sash and yellow/blue colours for away kit, perhaps?

Probably, just on balance, I wouldn't take it. My own view is that we should be enetring the last game in 2nd place - ahead on points. The variance is pretty huge though - one unlucky bounce or missed penalty could change the lot. Put another way, we are 2/7 to come second. I imagine we'd only be something like 1/2 or 2/5 to beat Walsall. I'd say those odds are about right, and so I'd prefer to be 2/7 over the 8 remianing games rather than 1/2 with one game left - although factoring in a possibel Huddersfield draw or defeat may make the odds near identical. Not much in it.