WALK DMC

KWP played a lovely ball in to Ings, but he played it from around 50 yards from goal. As I said in my original post, I haven't seen him do much in the last third of the pitch as in taking on defenders or making overlapping runs. The 2nd half against Arsenal was a better example where we had loads of possession but he didn't demonstrate any willingness to get beyond the midfielder or around the back. It is early days and he may have this capacity, my word of caution is that we don't pay Levy loads until we know that he has some of those skills in his tank. Getting battered and getting up isn't a test of strength or physicality - more a demonstration of bravery. Getting outjumped by David Silva was more my concern and he did come with a reputation as lacking in this area. He certainly doesn't possess an imposing size. My main point, is that we need more evidence of his abilities before letting Levy take our cash. I've seen plenty of players who have flattered to deceive in their first few games only for their (sizable) flaws to be exposed later on. Because of the Hojberg connection we may be more willing to do a deal with Levy, but we need to make sure before we make a big commitment - there may be better options out there.

I thought that he had an excellent game last night, very sound technically and doesn't give the ball away too much. He did make one or two mistakes but the relentless attacking of Man City meant that there was no where to hide for our defenders. Even our MoM Jack Stephens made a glaring error in the 2nd half which could have led to the equaliser. I didn't like the fact that David Silva out jumped him for a header though ..... I still think that there are three reasons why we may not sign him: 1) I've yet to see him contribute much as an attacking force in the final 3rd. I appreciate that Man City wasn't a game where he would get much opportunity for that ... 2) There remains questions about his physicality and strength 3) Mr Levy (probably the biggest reason)

Very nice article about Jack Stephens in the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/jul/05/jack-stephens-i-wanted-to-prove-people-wrong-id-been-written-off

I think the fact that he is 28 years old later this month and with a recent poor injury record which will put off many clubs. It would probably mean that he will have a very limited resale value, so that would reduce the amount that someone would be prepared to pay now. It may be our biggest protection against him going. I suspect that it would put off someone like Spurs who need to watch their spending.

Really excellent and insightful analysis

Fair point. Ings definitely has a preference for his right foot, but he can use the left when needed and has scored a couple of cracking goals with his left foot this season (Villa Away & Spurs Home), he also scores the odd goal with his head too. Watch Adams play, he actively puts his body in strange positions to take everything on his right - I first noticed it live in the first game against Burnley away when he took an early chance on his right when his left was the more natural. I hoped it might be coached out of him by now, and he actually had a left foot shot before the Covid break, but it still looks a fundamental weakness for his ongoing development.

Ralph has done wonderfully away, but I've yet to see any big improvement at home. Perhaps he needs to try a different formation altogether and use 4-2-3-1 at home (but keep to 4-2-2-2 away). Something like: KWP - Stephens/Vestergaard - Bednarek - Bertie JWP - Hojberg/Romeu Djenepo - Armstrong - Redmond Ings I'm not sure that experimenting with a totally different formation against Man City is a great idea, but I am fed up seeing us getting humiliated at virtually every home game - we need to do something different .........

I agree, Adams is 4 years older than Obafemi who is 19. Certainly Obafemi hasn't had any superb performances but he is in a different stage of his development than Adams and has shown flashes of potential - the goal against Chelsea being an obvious standout. I would hope that in 4 years Obafemi has improved his control and decision making to become a far better player - I'm not totally convinced that he will make it as a premiership player, but I think he deserves to continue his development and he has some inherent attributes that will help his progression. Let's not forget that JWP has been written off by many and it is only the last two years when he has been more widely accepted as a premiership quality footballer. He is 26 later this year - sometimes it takes time to develop (and to be accepted by the Saints forum :-) ). Adams played really well against Watford when he came on; but as I have said previously, he is poor in the air and can't kick with his left foot. His 20+ goals for Birmingham last year (with one goal-line tap-in with his left) were all scored with his right foot. Premiership defenders will suss this out very quickly. It isn't about getting a goal and going on a scoring streak; he isn't a bad player but has fundamental weaknesses which will limit his potential. We were linked with an Arsenal youth player earlier this week; watch his video and the instinctive way he finishes with either foot, I wish Adams could demonstrate some of that potential. It's that word potential; I think that Obafemi has the greater potential than Adams, even though Adams might actually contribute more than him at the current time. Judging by the choices of Ralph I suspect that Saints believe that it is better to invest more in Obafemi than Adams due to the increased potential. Only time will tell if that is the right decision, but I think that it sometimes explains the bias towards Obafemi over Adams.

Totally agree. This season the SaintsWeb responses after a match usually follow a similar pattern. Play away and all our players are world beaters, play at home and we need to replace them all. The Watford game is par for the course; KWP, Smallbone, & Adams are suddenly the replacements that will transform our team. KWP seems to be a very technically able player - nice control and neat passing, but there are question marks about his physicality and I've yet to see him demonstrate the ability to overlap behind a full-back which is a requirement these days for a full-back. Not writing him off, but he still has much to prove and I sense that Ralph would prefer better. Valery's abysmal form has given him an opportunity though. I have similar thoughts on Smallbone; very tidy, technically able and seems to have more creativity than the likes of Hojberg. But he is only 20 and currently lacks the physicality and presence to play as a direct replacement for the likes of Hojberg or Romeu in the centre of midfield. I think playing him wide as per yesterday gave him some protection and will allow him to develop his potential. Hopefully he'll get quite a few chances in the last 6 games and help him be ready for next year. I thought Adams looking pacey and hungry yesterday and made a decent impact. I'm still not convinced that he is a Premier league forward though. The inability to win a header or kick a ball with his left foot remains a major drawback and even a lucky goal off his backside won't change these fundamental weaknesses.

I posted a link on the old system which was lost with the upgrade. I'd randomly picked out a recent game Salisu had played in (against Athletic) that his team lost 4-1. He was at fault for the 3rd & 4th and out jumped for the 2nd. Maybe it was an off day, but worth watching to balance out the football manager stats.

Cedric is still injured and likely to be unavailable for Arsenal for another couple of weeks. So while losing Cedric wasn't seen as initially preferable, every week that he is unavailable and we are making money actually demonstrates what a good deal it was. In summary - JWP would still be playing right back today, if Cedric had stayed. But hell, lets not worry about the facts getting in the way of a cheap jibe.

A really good summary and a realistic shopping list. I wouldn't be surprised if Romeo goes too as he will only have 1 year of his contract left. Think that he would be good to keep as a squad player though. Also possible that with Yoshi, Danso, Hoedt (please) going, that we'll actually need two CBs.

I agree with the comment about Gunn, but why the heck would be go back to 3 at the back ? For the last 5.5 away games its worked really well, even when Vestergaard was part of a back 4 at Palace (ignoring his awful first half error). Please keep some continuity in formation and players ..... I would also hope Valery is back and we can get JWP back in midfield instead of Romeo who was very quiet yesterday. I think that there is a strong chance that with the break coming up that Ings and Long will start too.

I agree, he is an experienced Premiership player and still has age on his side, we should try and keep him longer term. However, in business you sometimes have to make difficult decisions and take actions that you'd prefer not to. Lets suppose that Hojberg has already privately indicated that he isn't going to sign a new contract in 2021 and we lose to Spurs on Saturday; we may be faced with the fact that the rest of our season consists of having a low chance of getting into Europe, a low chance of getting relegated and a high chance of being in the middle of the table with the also rans. Hojberg's value will continue to decline as he gets nearer to contract end and it is possible to squeeze a bigger price by selling an asset in January. Saints could take the view that sell him now, we could get an extra £10m for Ralph's summer spending budget and maybe getting someone in on loan like Morgan until May who would provide some cover (not that he is as good as he was). I think that the same sort of thinking could be being applied to both Adams and Vestergaard as well - although obviously their contracts have longer to run. I'm not suggesting that we do this; merely that it is something that should be considered - making this type of business decision is horrible, and not one us keyboard warriers have to do this, or take the consequences when it goes wrong. But, if Hojberg isn't going to sign another contract, we will need to sell him either now, or in the summer - and the question is how much risk would we take if we did it now ? 3 league positions (15th instead of 12th ?), 6 league positions, (18th instead of 12th !! ) ?

I agree. I'd be happy to "scrape" 4 points over the next 2 games through any means possible. I think we have to build our confidence and form again at home. The first point is to get to h-t at the very worst drawing; every match this season we have been chasing the game in the 2nd half. Half-time scores in Premiership this season are (from memory) 0-1 (Liv), 0-1 (Man U), 0-2 (Bournemouth), 1-3 (Chelsea), 0-5 (Leicester), 0-1 (Everton). In some cases the game is over before we've even started. With the exception of Liverpool we've conceeded a goal (or more) in the very early part of each game. So getting to 15 minutes without conceeding, getting to h-t with a slight lead or drawing, and finally start a 2nd half without having to score at least 2 goals to win. Achieving 4 (or 6) points will help give us a foundation to push on over the rest of the season. It won't be easy, but I think that we start small (cut out early goals against) and we can kick on. In comparison to last year we have Djenpo, Boufal & Cedric available plus an in-form Ings, so we can match or exceed last year's performances under Ralph. We just need to get started ..........

We have two issues: 1) Short Term - The first ambition has to be staying up this season. I'm assuming that we can't get any quality renforcements in January, as we don't have loads of spare cash and it is notoriously difficult in that transfer window. Regardless, I think that while it is difficult, we can turn it around enough to get to 17th or above. But I wouldn't put a lot of money on it. 2) Longer term - so we survive, but what then ? I think we need two centre halfs plus a midfielder with some mobility/pace and leadership capabilities at a minimum to get further up the table. Will we be able to sell any of the usual suspects for decent cash ? e.g. Hoedt/Carrillo/Lemina/Forster etc. The answer is we've already tried and the answer is almost certainly No. We have three senior players whose contract expires in 2020 - Long, Yoshida & Cedric. While that will free up some of the wage bill, we'll probably need to replace Cedric with cash so the savings will be limited. In summary, even if Ralph works miracles and keeps us up we still have long term structural problems which will either take another 2-3 years to resolve and/or an injection of capital (which under current ownership is unlikely). This is more concerning than the fact that we don't currently have a single premiership quality centre-half (Unlike some here, I'm not a fan of Bednarek who is very slow and has very variable distribution). We're in big trouble for a few years. I think Ralph knows this, but what to do ........

Clearly he has to be given more time; we have so many players that have been written off (e.g. Redmond) but needed time to settle in and gain some confidence before we start making a negative conclusion about. My concern though remains the same; he scored 22 goals last year. 21 were with his right foot, just a single tap in with his left. No headers. Unless he can improve these areas he will be a very limited player and easy for premiership defenders to mark. For the Burnley game he missed a good chance in the first few minutes because he hit the ball with his right (instead of his left) and he missed another good chance against Liverpool because his header was inadequate. It is very difficult to lead the line if you can't head a ball or shoot adequately with your weaker foot. It will be interesting to see if Saints can develop these two apparent weaknesses - you can get away with these fundamental limitations in the Championship, not in the Premier. But he is young and learning ..... Let's give him the season to improve.

If we win, we'll go 4th, win 2-0 we'll go 3rd ..... Admittedly, it would only be for a few hours before the other games complete and we'd still have to win, but it would be nice to see our name next to Liverpool and Man City just for a temporary period.

I agree, very few of the goals were the result of free flowing moves, but perhaps that is down to the style or abilities of Birmingham. I thought that he showed good pace, strength and a strong right foot shot. My other observation (based on a single video) is that of the 20 goals, only a single one was scored with his left foot (a tap in) and no headed goals at all. He isn't the tallest guy, so isn't necessarily going get many goals with his head, but good shorter strikers such as Keegan/Mane still score a fair number of goals with their head. I'd be more concerned with the absence of left foot goals, Premier league defenders will quickly suss out to keep him on his left. However, let Ralph get at him and coach him into some different techniques, and I'd want to see more of his general play to understand if he really is one footed, as we know a single Youtube video can be very, very misleading .... Overall I am on the optimistic side if we can get this signing off the ground.

In the 36 premier league games that Saints have played this season, we have won 9. Vestergaard has played 23 matches. When he hasn't played (13 games) we have only won once (Brighton away). While his limitations are clear (lack of pace, turning speed), we really miss his physical presence and height when he isn't there; all our other centre halves are not the most physically strong individuals (Yosh & Bed are almost slender ....) and certainly towards the end of games when opponents have a tendency go more direct, we miss his ability to head clear and block shots. Due to his limitations he probably isn't suited to a back 4, but if we are to bring in a new centre half we need to make sure that they are physically strong and dominant as I don't believe any of our existing pairing will work either.

If this is the match you mean, it was 1971. One of my favourite games from my youth.

I've always believed that if you're going play Charlie, pick him at home where we typically get more possession, create more chances and he doesn't have to wear himself out chasing lost causes . I'd love to see his career stats, I'm pretty sure that they would back this up. If you're away (or maybe at home to the Top 6), play Long because although he is unlikely to score he gives you a get out ball and stretches the other team. I've noticed that Hughes seems to have had a tendancy to do the opposite .....

He also made the Brighton goal in the EFL, so two assists this season.

I am no fan of Hoedt and Stephens, but due to the rush to find them culpable for everything the question of why Walcott was allowed time and space behind the defence to make his cross. It is very difficult as a Centre half to anticipate every possible scenario when a player can pick his cross. Bertrand closed down the player on the ball to stop them crossing it, who slipped it past him and into Walcott. Lemina was the closest and should have anticipated what was happening and supported Bertrand. It was schoolboy defending and if it wasn't for the desire to blame our center defence for everything it should have been highlighted as the main contributory factor to the 2nd goal. Once a winger is behind the defense, even the best defenders in the world struggle against a cross. Regardless, I hope we see Vestergard and Yoshi back for Leicester.

No, Redmond was on the left. JWP was on the right. Tadic played in the middle behind Carrillo. Although, I agree that Tadic's best position is on the left and we should play him there more often (not on the right, or centre).