Brussels Saint Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 Ok here goes why I have convinced myself its still likely we will make the Playoffs. 1, At the halfway stage of the season we had 28pts. If we replicate the exact same level of results (inc the poor start etc) we will end on 66pts and likely short by 8-10 points 2, Current result for result, team for team, 1st half to 2nd half we are down by 1 point at 6 v 7 however 4 of the 5 games against teams we have played twice have been away from St. Mary's. 3, I estimate we will need to be 10pts better 2nd half than first, thus ending on 76pts to get 6th place. Therefore we now need to better the results against the remaining teams by 11pts 4, We got a total of 1 point from games against Huddersfield, Swindon, Charlton & Leeds, all of which we play at home in the 2nd half of the season. Target these games, win 3, draw 1, giving us 10 of the 11 we need. Get a point against Bristol Rovers away and match all other results (none of which look particularly tricky except Norwich Sat, which we need a point) and we are there. 5, Yes this is clutching at straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Balls Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 I like your theory. And as is usually the case in the 2nd half of the season, teams at the bottom start to pick up more points, meaning teams at the top will be losing points. As long as we don't fall into that group then hopefully we'll start making ground on them very soon. Norwich would be a very big game if we win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 We won't make the playoffs. HTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxy Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 Ok here goes why I have convinced myself its still likely we will make the Playoffs. 1, At the halfway stage of the season we had 28pts. If we replicate the exact same level of results (inc the poor start etc) we will end on 66pts and likely short by 8-10 points 2, Current result for result, team for team, 1st half to 2nd half we are down by 1 point at 6 v 7 however 4 of the 5 games against teams we have played twice have been away from St. Mary's. 3, I estimate we will need to be 10pts better 2nd half than first, thus ending on 76pts to get 6th place. Therefore we now need to better the results against the remaining teams by 11pts 4, We got a total of 1 point from games against Huddersfield, Swindon, Charlton & Leeds, all of which we play at home in the 2nd half of the season. Target these games, win 3, draw 1, giving us 10 of the 11 we need. Get a point against Bristol Rovers away and match all other results (none of which look particularly tricky except Norwich Sat, which we need a point) and we are there. 5, Yes this is clutching at straws. Not sure I follow the reasoning (particularly the bit where if we get the same results that brought 28 points in 1sty half of the season we'll get 66 points rather than 56) but, I'm sure it all makes sense at some level above my head and anyhow I would be happy if it happened. COYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asaint4ever Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 we wont make playoffs this season! we will be looking to win the league next year. I think were end up mid table this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints_is_the_south Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 Think we'll lose to Norwich on Saturday. After that I don't think we can afford to lose another game if we are to make the play offs. Unrealistic I know but looking at the fixtures, all of our tougher games are at home. We then have the likes of Wycombe, Tranmere & Brighton away. It is doable but unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brussels Saint Posted 15 February, 2010 Author Share Posted 15 February, 2010 Not sure I follow the reasoning (particularly the bit where if we get the same results that brought 28 points in 1sty half of the season we'll get 66 points rather than 56) but, I'm sure it all makes sense at some level above my head and anyhow I would be happy if it happened. COYR Don't worry, I spent at least 30 mins working it out and still not convinced I got it right! 28 points + 10 for the deduction = 38 actual points for 1st half. 38x2 = 76 actual points - 10 (original deduction)= 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brussels Saint Posted 15 February, 2010 Author Share Posted 15 February, 2010 Think we'll lose to Norwich on Saturday. After that I don't think we can afford to lose another game if we are to make the play offs. Unrealistic I know but looking at the fixtures, all of our tougher games are at home. We then have the likes of Wycombe, Tranmere & Brighton away. It is doable but unlikely. It's true, our only tricky away games remaining are Norwich, MK Dons & Bristol. To match the first half we need to get 4 points from that lot. Tough but not impossible. As you say, if we lose to Norwich it looks tougher still, but a point keeps us on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S-Clarke Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 Think we'll lose to Norwich on Saturday. After that I don't think we can afford to lose another game if we are to make the play offs. Unrealistic I know but looking at the fixtures, all of our tougher games are at home. We then have the likes of Wycombe, Tranmere & Brighton away. It is doable but unlikely. i don't think we can even risk losing to Norwich tbh, we need to win every game now and hope that others slip up - a draw here and there wouldn't be a disaster, but 1 more defeat and it really is curtains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horley CTFC Saint Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 Ok here goes why I have convinced myself its still likely we will make the Playoffs. 1, At the halfway stage of the season we had 28pts. If we replicate the exact same level of results (inc the poor start etc) we will end on 66pts and likely short by 8-10 points 2, Current result for result, team for team, 1st half to 2nd half we are down by 1 point at 6 v 7 however 4 of the 5 games against teams we have played twice have been away from St. Mary's. 3, I estimate we will need to be 10pts better 2nd half than first, thus ending on 76pts to get 6th place. Therefore we now need to better the results against the remaining teams by 11pts 4, We got a total of 1 point from games against Huddersfield, Swindon, Charlton & Leeds, all of which we play at home in the 2nd half of the season. Target these games, win 3, draw 1, giving us 10 of the 11 we need. Get a point against Bristol Rovers away and match all other results (none of which look particularly tricky except Norwich Sat, which we need a point) and we are there. 5, Yes this is clutching at straws. If we win our remaining 10 home games I reckon we will have a chance providing away form picks up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brmbrm Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 We will need who knows how may points? 75 points will probably be enough for 6th (less might be enough, more might not be). assuming we need 75 points and with 18 games left then that's 12 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeat: tough but do-able. 10 home wins would be great, and leave us with 2-5-1 from the 8 away games (or 3-2-2). So don't panic, and don't say we "won't": We "probably won't", OK, but there is still a realistic chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yorkie Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 Really think we have run out of games. I'd love to see us in a play off position - but there are so many ifs and buts to take into consideration. All we can do is try and win every game - and see what happens. Not saying the lads don't try to win every game - but some teams are just not intimidated by us and actually up their game. We need to be ruthless - not just try to hold on to a 1-0 or 2-0 lead but go for the jugular. Send out a message. Unfortunately is we scrape 1-0s everyone thinks they have a chance and play twice as hard! Thinking another trip to Wembley would be fantastic - but remember there is a small 2-leg affair with someone else in the top 6 first. Not even going to contemplate who at this stage - but I think Leeds will be in the mix and in our way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draino76 Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 We'll make the playoffs; I'm seldom wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draino76 Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 I'm seldom right though; so bear that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st_tommy Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 We need to win our 10 home games and 5 of our remaining 8 away games. = 45 points + 34 = 79 points which should be enough bearing in mind we will have to have beaten most of the teams above us to get there. On the assumption that we will slip up at home against maybe Leeds or Huddersfield or Swindon we might need to win 6 away. Of all the games left only Norwich looks unwinnable IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 Last year I booked a holiday for the playoffs weekend so I can categorically state that we shall make the final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saint_stevo Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 if we make the play off's i will pitch invade fratton park wearing a saints thong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludgershallsaint Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 We need to win our 10 home games and 5 of our remaining 8 away games. = 45 points + 34 = 79 points which should be enough bearing in mind we will have to have beaten most of the teams above us to get there. On the assumption that we will slip up at home against maybe Leeds or Huddersfield or Swindon we might need to win 6 away. Of all the games left only Norwich looks unwinnable IMO 79 is a bit high. Every year since 2004 76 points has been enough with some seasons it being as low as 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 79 is a bit high. Every year since 2004 76 points has been enough with some seasons it being as low as 71. This year I think it will be a lot higher than 71 looking at the points won by the top six Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sold To The Man @ The Bar Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_2/predictor/default.stm I have just used the above to look at all games and teams and tried to be as honest as i could, this was the outcome after the last game of the season. Leeds Norwich Charlton Millwall Colchester Southampton (Only on G/D) Swindon Bristol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John B Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_2/predictor/default.stm I have just used the above to look at all games and teams and tried to be as honest as i could, this was the outcome after the last game of the season. Leeds Norwich Charlton Millwall Colchester Southampton (Only on G/D) Swindon Bristol I hope you are right but I did the same last season and we did not get relegated on my estimation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Block 5 Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 if we make the play off's i will pitch invade fratton park wearing a saints thong This post deserves a thread of it's own mate! By the way, where can I purchase a Saints thong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott_saints Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 No chance of play offs. Not too fussed, it's been a good season and I fully expect us to r@pe the league next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knellster Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 A mate who has no feelings for or against Saints played the BBC Predictor. He's a bit of an anorak so has a pretty good idea of the teams in our league. I don't know all the details but he had us two points short of the play offs with Hartlepool at home to come ('cos it still had to be rearranged so wasn't included for some reason). Could be an interesting end of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRichmond Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 we wont make playoffs this season! we will be looking to win the league next year. I think were end up mid table this season. If we DON'T make the playoffs this season, (and get Promoted), then, before we start thinking of NEXT season, you will have to work out what replacements we are likely to get, to take the place of those that WILL NOT WANT to be in Div 1 for another season:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Under Weststand Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 I expect us to go close, either 7th or 8th but ultimately miss out on the play-offs. We need to put a good a run of probably 6/7-wins on the trot starting in the next week or two to have any chance. If we could do that & start putting pressure on teams above us closing the gap then who knows what that pressure might do to the other teams. There is a faint hope, but I have no real expectation of play-offs. But would love to be proved wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avenue Saint Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 what odds would u get for saint beating LEEDS in the final right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRichmond Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 what odds would u get for saint beating LEEDS in the final right now? Before Leeds v Carlisle, I would have gone for Leeds, but would not have l;ooked forward to meeting them in the Final Now, after Carlisle's last few fixtures, it looks as though we will have a real battle on our hands Winnable though:cool:l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avenue Saint Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 Before Leeds v Carlisle, I would have gone for Leeds, but would not have l;ooked forward to meeting them in the Final Now, after Carlisle's last few fixtures, it looks as though we will have a real battle on our hands Winnable though:cool:l no i mean in playoffs...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRichmond Posted 15 February, 2010 Share Posted 15 February, 2010 no i mean in playoffs...? Right Hmmm Over two legs I think we would shade it But if we met them in the actual Final, you would have to say Leeds would be favorites IMHO:mad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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