Jump to content

Grand National Tips/Betting Thread


saint_stevo
 Share

Recommended Posts

My rather long shortlist !

 

Big Fella Thanks 9/1 on Betfair

Backstage 28/1 on Betfair

Black Apalachi - Available at 16/1 (Sportingbet)

Snowy Morning - Available at 16/1 (General)

Arbor Supreme - Available at 20/1 (Betfair)

Vic Venturi - Available at 25/1 (Sportingbet)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trends :

 

4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (Handicap Chase) – 4m 4f

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

 

Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced 20/1 or shorter. Hence 70% of the

winners have come from 28% of the runners.

 

Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further

this stat holds true right back to 1970.

 

Age: 9 and 10 yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners (70%) from 50% of the

runners.

 

Weight: All of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.

 

Trainers: 5 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland.

 

Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.

 

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

 

Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 92 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from

29 and none have finished in the first four). 13yo and older runners are rare but all

13 have been soundly beaten.

 

Price 40/1+: 1 win from 196 qualifiers.

 

Weight: The top 9 in the weights (inc. joints) have provided just 1 winner from 98.

 

Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 61, with 3

further finishing placed (LOSS of £53.00; ROI -86.9%).

 

 

GENERAL STATS

 

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 19 for a loss of £3.00.

 

Finishing positions of favourites: U, F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R,

1/6, 7

 

TRENDS SUMMARY

 

Mon Mome was a shock 100/1 winner last year but

overall big priced runners should be ignored. One stat that goes back 40

years is concerned with the fact that all winners had won over 3 miles or

further in their careers. Irish trainers deserve maximum respect also as

they have provided 50% of the winners from less than 20% of the total

runners. In terms of weight, horses carrying bigger weights (11st 2lb or

more and/or top 9 in the weights) have a poor record, while in terms of age

it looks best to avoid horses aged 7 or younger.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not online tomorrow.

 

Really fancy Noble Alan in the 2m Nov Chase. Very pleasing on the eye, former Sweaty Champion Hurdle winner and leps beautifully. Big step up in class here.

 

As for the big one, all backed each way and nice prices. If one places I'm covered:

 

My Will

Erics Charm

Cerium

Ballyfitz

State of Play

 

Think the ground has gone against Ballyfitz now.

 

Good luck!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, which doesnt have Hugh's national tips on yet, hence my question :rolleyes:

 

 

;)

 

Well there is of course the main site where he posts his daily tips and the special Aintree site so not having psychic powers I had no idea which site you had been on and the reference to the Aintree site was more a general one as HT never posts his tips before about 10am on the morning of racing.

So don't start getting sarky with me matey ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not online tomorrow.

 

Really fancy Noble Alan in the 2m Nov Chase. Very pleasing on the eye, former Sweaty Champion Hurdle winner and leps beautifully. Big step up in class here.

 

As for the big one, all backed each way and nice prices. If one places I'm covered:

 

My Will

Erics Charm

Cerium

Ballyfitz

State of Play

 

Think the ground has gone against Ballyfitz now.

 

Good luck!!

 

Good luck to you too. I've never in my life had a bet on the Grand National and doubt I'll start tomorrow which should mean any selections I make stand a chance!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hate the Grand National as a betting proposition, but I will be having a few quid on My Will, good trainer, finished third last year and is a few pounds lower..

 

Good luck all, and lets hope the horses get round safely

 

Frankie

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 each ways in a kind of syndicate:

 

Mon Mome, Don't push it, CLoudly Lane, My WIll, Snowy Morning.

 

Cloudy Lane is a small one, because my name is C(hris) Lane, Don't push it I'm hoping will place, Snowy Morning to win IMO.

 

As you should all know by now though, do not bet on these horses because every bet I make fails to win me money. Seriously. If I win money today, I may do a little wee.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Package if I had to have a bet, luckily I don't !

 

Agree, it's the worst race to bet on but it is a spectacle to watch so you have to support a few (and see them get knocked out one by one):

 

THE PACKAGE (16/1)

MADISON DU BERLAIS (50/1)

NICHE MARKET (20/1)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't Push it e/w @ 20-1 :)

Black Apalchi e/w @14-1 :)

Big fella thanls to win @ 10-1 :mad:

 

Have also got Wodds to win Masters @9-2

Kim e/w (top 5) @35-1

Poulter e/w @ 33-1

Mickleson e/w @12-1

 

Oh, and Porstmuff relegated - what a good weekend :supz:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had a £5 each way on DOn't Push it, and won £110 quid as I got it at 16s.

 

All in all, I spent £50 on the National so I've made £60. (Although I lost £50 at Cheltenham this year, so I'm up a £10er!)

 

Saints won, Pompey down, good weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had a £5 each way on DOn't Push it, and won £110 quid as I got it at 16s.

 

All in all, I spent £50 on the National so I've made £60. (Although I lost £50 at Cheltenham this year, so I'm up a £10er!)

 

Saints won, Pompey down, good weekend.

I lost about £500 at Cheltenham and about £200 at Aintree, over the last year I estimate losses of £8-10,000, I have a problem.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

View Terms of service (Terms of Use) and Privacy Policy (Privacy Policy) and Forum Guidelines ({Guidelines})