MarkSFC Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 As disappointing as this start has been for a dew reasons I thought I would look at Norwichs start last year and compare our chances. After 6 games: Saints 4 pts. Norwich had 8pts after 10 games Norwich only had 13 points. Our next 4 games are; Colchester (H) Sheff Wed (A) Yeovil (A) Bournemouth (H) now if we were firing on all cylinders we would probably expect 3 wins and a draw in Sheffield. That would mean we would have 14 points, one ahead of where Norwich were last season. Let's assume that we win the home games and get one draw at Yeovil, that would put us on 11 points, two behind Norwich. Nigel Adjins has to get this team team going very quickly and 2 or 3 people in and the next 4 games are likely to be the only "grace period" he will get. Coming out of that series of games with at least 7 points will be ok. In the last 10 seasons it has taken an average of 92 pts to be champions and 83 for runners-up. 76 is average for 6th place. So what does this mean? Well at the start of the season the target must have been 92 plus points. If after 10 games we only sit on 11 points (7 in next 4) we will be 2 behind Norwich last year. Therefore matching their form would mean 93 points and certain promotion. Of course this "looks" tough but even if we had more points now I suspect that most on here would expect a points tally in the low 90s. Therefore if in fact we were to win the next 4 we would be on 16 pouts and 3 ahead of Norwich last year. We can still go up!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Rick Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 I appreciate your optimism but there is no way this team can win 3 out of the next 4. no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kraken Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 I appreciate your optimism but there is no way this team can win 3 out of the next 4. no way. They absolutely can. Whether they will is another matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shrivvy Saint Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 You are very optimistic. Having witnessed the last 3 games we will be lucky to get 4 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSFC Posted 16 September, 2010 Author Share Posted 16 September, 2010 I appreciate your optimism but there is no way this team can win 3 out of the next 4. no way. Well I'm glad you're not motivating the team!! Class (whatever class that is) is permanant, form is temporary. Top coaches are just that because they get players to perform. Pardew had 2 months and couldn't do it....adkins has 3-4 games. I think he will, but more importantly so does he!!! We will of course see in a couple of weeks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraftwerk26 Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 We will not be going up this season automatically...i didn't think we would before the season started..we will get the play offs i reckon....hope i am wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomobz Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 we'll be 8th at christmas then win the league Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jones91 Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 Also leeds were running away with the league title until they beat man u in the FA cup. They then went on a really poor run and still got automatic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scott_saints Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 Win 3 of the next 4? We are s**t ya know?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingsbridge Saint Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 We won't get 3 goals over the next 4 games leave alone 3 wins. We are total and utter rubbish at the moment and a million miles away from Norwich last season. How do we compare with where Stockport County were this time last season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 LOL at the people still clinging to the Norwich one-off, which we're already 4 points behind of even at this stage. I'd rather consider it in the context of having lost 4 matches in a row with a side that a month ago was odds-on to be promoted. Just for the record, we've only played two sides in the top half - this isn't going to get any easier. We can still go up, but there are various on-field issues which have to be addressed rapidly. At least we have someone who might be able to do that in place now, rather than a massive void caused by a pointless sacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Rick Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 Including pre-season we haven't played well for about 10 games (barring the Bristol R FREAK RESULT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Ash Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 LOL at the people still clinging to the Norwich one-off, which we're already 4 points behind of even at this stage. I'd rather consider it in the context of having lost 4 matches in a row with a side that a month ago was odds-on to be promoted. Just for the record, we've only played two sides in the top half - this isn't going to get any easier. We can still go up, but there are various on-field issues which have to be addressed rapidly. At least we have someone who might be able to do that in place now, rather than a massive void caused by a pointless sacking. Why was the sacking pointless? You have no idea why he was sacked, if it was unfair on Pardews part I'm sure he'd have been shouting about it, but I suspect NDA's were signed, so we're back that no one knows if it was pointless. Whether it was pointless or not we have to look forward now and start that off with a win at the weekend, Adkins will have seen last night what needs to be done, maybe an arm around Rickie or a Kick up the arse to Hammond, whatever but I'm certain we'll win this weekend and I don't see why we can't start a run of games where we pick up a few points, I reckon we'll get at least 8 points out of the next 4 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jez Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 Adkins will have seen last night what needs to be done, maybe an arm around Rickie or a Kick up the arse to Hammond With a capital K! Leeds got automatic promotion last season. They also lost 4 games in a row scoring none and conceding 7 (Saints 1-0, Millwall 2-0, Norwich 1-0 and Swindon 3-0 in March/April). So it certainly can be done, and things can only get better from this point onwards. Well, unless we lose at the weekend of course.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Who? Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 You are very optimistic. Having witnessed the last 3 games we will be lucky to get 4 points. Any goals, any points? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 I appreciate your optimism but there is no way this team can win 3 out of the next 4. no way. another 90 points in 40 matches is one hell of an ask! that is 2.25 points a match all season or 10 points from every 4 matches (3 wins and a draw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gjphilsaint Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 I usually view these threads and their comments and sigh at peoples' pessimisim.. however.. having gone to the MK match last night... it is going to take some time to get things turmed around this season. It feels like watching a pre season team learning the ropes again.. I think even IF Adkins can weave anything from this lot it is going to take a few months.. and then if NC intends to let him go shopping in the New Year transfer window.. it will take yet more time.. ins/outs blending etc... no.. I am afriad we are back at square one for this year. Everbody who has watched us this year both Saints and opposition fans know our tag of favourites was unfounded (although i bet the Brizzle R fans are scratching their heads). It is gonna take time peeps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian the Red Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 I appreciate your optimism but there is no way this team can win 3 out of the next 4. no way. You are absolutely right; there is no way this team can win 3 out of next 4, they will win all 4!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedArmy Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 AND they were 13 points behind Leeds. We have the side to do it. But we need immediate improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 I don't have a clue how we will do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
egreog Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 Can't see this lot scoring a goal in each of the next 4 games......let alone winning them!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darren Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 You forget norwich won i think 9 in a row and somethink like 14 out of 17 games at one point in the season. When was the last time we won 9 in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 Including pre-season we haven't played well for about 10 games (barring the Bristol R FREAK RESULT) Freak in the sense that we beat them by the exact same 4-goal margin as last season..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The9 Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 Why was the sacking pointless? You have no idea why he was sacked, if it was unfair on Pardews part I'm sure he'd have been shouting about it, but I suspect NDA's were signed, so we're back that no one knows if it was pointless. Whether it was pointless or not we have to look forward now and start that off with a win at the weekend, Adkins will have seen last night what needs to be done, maybe an arm around Rickie or a Kick up the arse to Hammond, whatever but I'm certain we'll win this weekend and I don't see why we can't start a run of games where we pick up a few points, I reckon we'll get at least 8 points out of the next 4 games. My mistake, SINCE the sacking we have been pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_Ash Posted 16 September, 2010 Share Posted 16 September, 2010 My mistake, SINCE the sacking we have been pointless. haha! That is true! I laughed out loud at that. Is that a lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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