dune Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Despite rises in stock markets in recent days the game is up. It's ludicrous how the DAX and the CAC have soared on the news that manufacturing decline has slowed when the simple truth is that new orders are falling at a far faster rate than manufacturers have been cutting output, meaning firms have been reliant on orders placed earlier in the year to sustain current production levels, so even these bad figures aren't bad enough to give a true picture. The Euro will collapse and the sooner the better because it has to collapse if we are to get out of this mess. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8988297/European-markets-climb-despite-further-fall-in-manufacturing.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefunkygibbons Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Of course it is unavoidable, it was doomed from the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 3 January, 2012 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Of course it is unavoidable, it was doomed from the start And notice how it was the "loons" (as wade would put it) that said this from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colinjb Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 The question is, how long can you flog a dead horse for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexsaint Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Made me laugh when I heard Germany has been printing Marks for months now in preparation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 3 January, 2012 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Made me laugh when I heard Germany has been printing Marks for months now in preparation All I'd say is don't book a holiday to the Eurozone this year... If you are planning a short haul holiday places like Turkey and Egypt look the best bet, especially Turkey where you can get a cracking exchange rate compared to where it was a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubai_phil Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 All I'd say is don't book a holiday to the Eurozone this year... If you are planning a short haul holiday places like Turkey and Egypt look the best bet, especially Turkey where you can get a cracking exchange rate compared to where it was a year ago. Ah, but for you lot IF the Eurozone goes pop then you have to look at where holiday countries have their currency linked to - many scenarios show Sterling could go through the roof but then others show the dollar doing it. Best bet? Camping in Cornwall Ambrose double barrelled nme in the Torygraph has been blogging this for ages. Fact is the Germans screwed the Euro by having a false exchange rate to make their export based economy boom. They hold the key. IF the Euro splits their goods go up in cost they get a pounding. So the decision is simply which will be LEAST painful for them. A split Eurozone with the French keeping Euro2 down a bit or a return to the DM? Which hurts them the least - that will be the solution. If it goes pop you won't have ATM's and planes probably won't be flying because insurances will be invalid with no currency to determine the value of risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 3 January, 2012 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Best bet? Camping in Cornwall. You disapoint me. Where is the golfing story to go alongside this suggestion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubai_phil Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 You disapoint me. Where is the golfing story to go alongside this suggestion? You reckon anyone's gonna be able to afford to play golf? Although I suppose we'll all have plenty of time for it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 You disapoint me. Where is the golfing story to go alongside this suggestion? :lol::lol::lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Dune, much as I think the EU has become a monstrous front for the building of Der Vierte Reich, do you have ANY idea just how much damage a collpasing Euro is going to do - worldwide ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 3 January, 2012 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Dune, much as I think the EU has become a monstrous front for the building of Der Vierte Reich, do you have ANY idea just how much damage a collpasing Euro is going to do - worldwide ??? Stop believing the rubbish you read about this. A collapse will be the saviour for the likes of Italy and Spain as they will then get a weak currency that attracts investment. There's plenty of gold sloshing around waiting to be spent - not least from those who profited hugely from government bailouts. This capital didn't just evaporate - investors are itching to invest! That said once the Euro does fail - and it will, it won't be good for Germany as they'll have a strong currency - shame! As for the UK we will have already finalised contingency plans to shield us as much as possible from continentals clamouring to transfer their money to our shores, and although the pound will strengthen this will mitigate much of the risk. On the brightside we'll all get cheaper foreign hols! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Made me laugh when I heard Germany has been printing Marks for months now in preparation Germany is not printing Marks. This was a rumour started by a rabid advisor to Bush Junior. Germany did stockpile Marks at unification in 1989/90 but has not done so since. As long as Germany (which has just announced record low unemployment figures) and France continue to support the currency, it will survive, and will probably strengthen in the long run as the flaky bits from southern europe are peeled away by default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubai_phil Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Stop believing the rubbish you read about this. A collapse will be the saviour for the likes of Italy and Spain as they will then get a weak currency that attracts investment. There's plenty of gold sloshing around waiting to be spent - not least from those who profited hugely from government bailouts. This capital didn't just evaporate - investors are itching to invest! That said once the Euro does fail - and it will, it won't be good for Germany as they'll have a strong currency - shame! As for the UK we will have already finalised contingency plans to shield us as much as possible from continentals clamouring to transfer their money to our shores, and although the pound will strengthen this will mitigate much of the risk. On the brightside we'll all get cheaper foreign hols! Fatally flawed theory. This will be the OUTCOME of a collapse and yes it will allow balance to return to the global economy after some months of pain, but like all "economic theories" it misses ONE pretty damned critical point. It assumes an ORDERLY collapse. It took countries waiting to JOIN the Euro around a year to set up new software systems, new currency distributed through banks, new ATM's, vending machines etc and then on one magical moment the computers converted DM's Francs et al into the new currency at the same moment in time. The PROBLEM is how to UN PLAN that? Sure, a country could give notice of leaving the Euro, but how long will THAT take? The speculative attacks during that period will cause mayhem. In addition even the UK would have to bring in Capital Exchange controls as cash floods "safe havens" how would your importers be able to pay their bills - what would be the rate against a new Drachma? How would your food chain be affected with so much coming in as imports? Sure the half baked idea of the Euro is dead in the water, but there could be UTTER chaos IF it is not managed and planned. And the ONE thing the Euro nutjobs have shown through all of this is an amazing ability to stick their heads in the sand and say "there is nothing wrong" Europe could be in one hell of a mess for several MONTHS. Like most great ideas (which the Euro SHOULD have been IF it had been done properly) it is the implementation that is the problem. Sure UK won't have a problem you think - but no point having a strong Pound IF you aren't allowed to send any overseas... OR more likely your bank goes bust and you lose all your savings. There will come a point in a Banking collapse where the Government will be taxing you all at 120% of income just to guarantee your savings & pensions. There's a zillion blogs out there but this one http://bruxelles.blogs.liberation.fr/UBS%20fin%20de%20l'euro.pdf The political and populardebate about break-up frequently misrepresents the position. Because of themisperception of the Euro as some sort of super Exchange Rate Mechanism, itsbreak-up is often presented as having few more severe consequences than theERM crises and partial fragmentations of 1992-93. Popular misconceptionsinclude the idea that a country will be able to stimulate growth by simplyleaving the Euro, that a country can be expelled from the Euro by other memberstates, or that a strong economy could leave the Euro without significantconsequences. All of these arguments are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anothersaintinsouthsea Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Stop believing the rubbish you read about this. A collapse will be the saviour for the likes of Italy and Spain as they will then get a weak currency that attracts investment. There's plenty of gold sloshing around waiting to be spent - not least from those who profited hugely from government bailouts. This capital didn't just evaporate - investors are itching to invest! That said once the Euro does fail - and it will, it won't be good for Germany as they'll have a strong currency - shame! As for the UK we will have already finalised contingency plans to shield us as much as possible from continentals clamouring to transfer their money to our shores, and although the pound will strengthen this will mitigate much of the risk. On the brightside we'll all get cheaper foreign hols! Investors and lenders won't rush into a country that has just defaulted on its debts. These countries will struggle to pay for much needed imports particularly energy, the cost of which will rocket in relative terms. A debt default is a massive **** sandwich, if it wasn't they'd have already done it by now. Some of the comments about Germany make me chuckle. Germany has been outperforming the UK economically for decades and for much of that time it had a strong currency. I'll bet that Germany will continue to outerform us on average over the next couple of decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anothersaintinsouthsea Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Germany is not printing Marks. This was a rumour started by a rabid advisor to Bush Junior. Germany did stockpile Marks at unification in 1989/90 but has not done so since. As long as Germany (which has just announced record low unemployment figures) and France continue to support the currency, it will survive, and will probably strengthen in the long run as the flaky bits from southern europe are peeled away by default. Exactly. Literally the last country to stop using the Euro will be Germany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Exactly. Literally the last country to stop using the Euro will be Germany. Yep, and even then they will just rename it "das euromark". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 All I'd say is don't book a holiday to the Eurozone this year... If you are planning a short haul holiday places like Turkey and Egypt look the best bet, especially Turkey where you can get a cracking exchange rate compared to where it was a year ago. 'Advice' from someone who was recently enthusiastically recommending the dumbest share buy of all, in HMV, should be taken with the tiniest pinch of salt. Besides, how on earth do you come to the conclusions (a) that the Euro is in freefall; and (b) that it's going to be too expensive to holiday in countries whose currency it is? So a bit of practical advice, based on experience: I travelled to Argentina during the time when its currency was pegged to the US$ (stunningly expensive), and again when the country defaulted on its international debts and decoupled from the dollar (stunningly cheap). During the latter, my colleagues and I ate in the finest steak house in BA, and our bill was so large that the manager gave us a free bottle of champagne. The bill for six was equivalent to £16. On that basis, Greece would be a good bet for a great and cost-effective holiday, rather than the warzones that Turkey and Egypt have become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 And notice how it was the "loons" (as wade would put it) that said this from the start. And its funny how the likes of Farage, who has predicting what is happening for years, saying we need to cut back on public spending for years etc, are still mocked by the political elite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotty Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 And its funny how the likes of Farage, who has predicting what is happening for years, saying we need to cut back on public spending for years etc, are still mocked by the political elite. I havent noticed anyone mocking Farage since he had his planecrash. Odd, that. And for my fourpence worth with chips, I did actually say when the euro was launched that it couldnt work in the long term because of the implications of exchange and interest rates being overridden in the interests of the currency before the country. Theres been a lot of stuff bleated about the ERM which isnt really directly relevant, but its the closest experience we have. And it wasnt a happy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 3 January, 2012 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2012 the warzones that Turkey and Egypt have become. I must have missed the warzone in the Turkish resort areas, or are you talking about the skirmishes in Kurdish areas hundreds of miles away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1976_Child Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Despite rises in stock markets in recent days the game is up. It's ludicrous how the DAX and the CAC have soared on the news that manufacturing decline has slowed when the simple truth is that new orders are falling at a far faster rate than manufacturers have been cutting output, meaning firms have been reliant on orders placed earlier in the year to sustain current production levels, so even these bad figures aren't bad enough to give a true picture. The Euro will collapse and the sooner the better because it has to collapse if we are to get out of this mess. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8988297/European-markets-climb-despite-further-fall-in-manufacturing.html Correct. There is simply too much debt which can not be paid. The final nail in the coffin was when Italy, Portugal, Spain where asked to increase their contributions to the IMF so that it can build a war chest in the event that Italy, Portugal or Spain needed help. You couldn't make it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Correct. There is simply too much debt which can not be paid. The final nail in the coffin was when Italy, Portugal, Spain where asked to increase their contributions to the IMF so that it can build a war chest in the event that Italy, Portugal or Spain needed help. You couldn't make it up. None of which will mean the end of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 3 January, 2012 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2012 None of which will mean the end of the euro. Can we now talk about the warzone that Turkey has become, but only you know about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Can we now talk about the warzone that Turkey has become, but only you know about? Haven't you rather skipped past the actual point I was making about the idiocy of your original post? As for Turkey, British tourists have been killed in the WEST of the country, and many people in Istanbul itself (as well as severe damage to the British consulate and an HSBC building), in the last ten years of skirmishes between the turkish military and Kurdish militants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 3 January, 2012 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Haven't you rather skipped past the actual point I was making about the idiocy of your original post? As for Turkey, British tourists have been killed in the WEST of the country, and many people in Istanbul itself (as well as severe damage to the British consulate and an HSBC building), in the last ten years of skirmishes between the turkish military and Kurdish militants. So basically the "warzone" is an insurgency centred in a region far away from the tourist hot spots. Thanks for clearing that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 So basically the "warzone" is an insurgency centred in a region far away from the tourist hot spots. Thanks for clearing that up. With deaths and bombings in Istanbul. You're welcome. Now back to your brilliant logic...No answer? I thought not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 3 January, 2012 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2012 With deaths and bombings in Istanbul. You're welcome. Now back to your brilliant logic...No answer? I thought not. A few terrorist attacks do not constitute a warzone Verbal. Well not to normal people anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 A few terrorist attacks do not constitute a warzone Verbal. Well not to normal people anyway. Still no answer. Come on, at least make an effort...if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 3 January, 2012 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Still no answer. Come on, at least make an effort...if you can. ' I'm worn out with all this debating. I need to have a lie down. Can you recommend some self help techniques? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 ' I'm worn out with all this debating. I need to have a lie down. Can you recommend some self help techniques? Turn yourself in. Now would you mind if we got back to the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1976_Child Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 None of which will mean the end of the euro. The Euro, as currently configured, is toast. It is only a matter of time. It might well exist in future but at a very different thing and almost certainly with fewer countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 3 January, 2012 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2012 Turn yourself in. Now would you mind if we got back to the thread? Please do. Tell us all about the warzone in Spain and why we need to buy a bullet proof vest for the beaches in Torremolinos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 The Euro, as currently configured, is toast. It is only a matter of time. It might well exist in future but at a very different thing and almost certainly with fewer countries. The last bit is nearer the likely outcome. Greece will certainly default and exit the euro. That's initially bad for Greece, and good for the euro - one bad debtor out of the zone with the banks bearing the default costs. And so on, if the domino effect takes down another southern European country. But Germany and France - both individually much bigger economies than Britain's, and combined FAR more powerful an alliance - will simply be at the core of a smaller, better balanced eurozone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Gabriel's Halo Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 So, to all you experts out there - what do WE do ? Do we pull all our cash from the Banks and keep it in a tin under the mattress for a year or so ? Do we buy gold and bury it in the garden ? Do we stock up heavily on dried/tinned food and bottled water just in case the supermarkets run out ? Interested in what you all might think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 (edited) All very overblown, there wont be any armaggedon. Even the worse case scenario would mean 1% off growth in 2012 and 2013. What matters are the economic fiundamentals, not which counting system you use. Edited 3 January, 2012 by buctootim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridge too far Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 It seems that the chief financial officers of leading companies fear the collapse of the euro. "Deloitte said that CFOs believe a collapse of the euro would have a severe effect on UK businesses, causing a new credit crunch and causing major swings in asset prices and exchange rates." "CFOs are now working on the assumption that Britain will fall back into recession. They see a 54% chance of a 'double-dip', up from just 27% a year ago." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16385525 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 3 January, 2012 Author Share Posted 3 January, 2012 (edited) So, to all you experts out there - what do WE do ? Do we pull all our cash from the Banks and keep it in a tin under the mattress for a year or so ? Do we buy gold and bury it in the garden ? Do we stock up heavily on dried/tinned food and bottled water just in case the supermarkets run out ? Interested in what you all might think. Limiting your exposure to equities would be wise, and if you have any use this window of opportunity and keep your powder dry. I got out when the ftse was around 5700 and considered a simple low interest cash account, but in the end decided on low-medium risk corporate bonds. Edited 3 January, 2012 by dune Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1976_Child Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 All very overblown, there wont be any armaggedon. Even the worse case scenario would mean 1% off growth in 2012 and 2013. What matters are the economic fiundamentals, not which counting system you use. my goodness you are naive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teamsaint Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 If all we had to worry about economically was a possible 1% of growth for the next 2 years, I would be amazed. the dangers are very great indeed. maybe the opportunities to rebuild "real" economies are great also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 my goodness you are naive. I didnt say there wasnt a problem with a potential default by Greece, Italy and Spain. That would be huge for Europe. That isnt same as saying that the collapse of the euro would be an armageddon event. Two very different things, albeit the creation of one facilitated the creation of the debt bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 but will I be able to sell my flat in 2 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1976_Child Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 but will I be able to sell my flat in 2 years? you can always sell your flat. At any time. Just depends what price you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted 3 January, 2012 Share Posted 3 January, 2012 but will I be able to sell my flat in 2 years? The best price you'll ever get on your flat - at least for a decade or so - was two years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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