A glass half full

[NewYorkSaint]

The loss of great players is stressful, no question. But you can still make a case that we'll be fine.

 

Consider.

- We've just signed a centre forward in Pelle who seems to be better than the guy whose pic is top right of this page -- and the amount we paid for him is substantially less than the amount we've been offered for our reserve right back. (Yes, ages, are relevant here, but as far as the next 3 years are concerned, I personally think Pelle will add more to the team than Chambers would have, great though he is.)

- We're making a 150% profit on Lovren... as well as getting a great year out of him.

- We got paid the highest amount ever paid for a left back, someone who cost us nothing except X years of academy nurturing. He has a replacement from the same academy who may be almost as good, and we're committed to buying a new first choice LB. So unlike last year we'll have two great left backs - and still with many extra £ in the bank.

- Even without Morgan, our midfield is teeming with talent: JWP, Cork, Wanyama, Davis, Gaston, Tadic ...and now Reed.

- Isgrove is storming through as an incredible prospect. He's faster than J-Rod and seems to possess fantastic instinctive skills.

- We have an excellent new manager duo, who based on pre-season evidence look likely to continue where MoPo left off in terms of the fast-passing attacking style.

- We've made £100m on players who cost us

 

So just as a sustainable business model, you can make the case that Saints are in a league all their own. We have an academy that is not only turning out incredible players, it seems capable of funding the entire club.

 

Now the loss of many of our best players is certainly alarming. It's easy to see why some think the board is being deceptive. But there's another interpretation that still seems to me just as likely to be true. The root problem is that the premier league has vast discrepancies in financial strength between different teams. What is driving these transfers is simply this: a 'big' club likes the look of one of our players and puts the word to them that could double their wages if they make the move. If that is accompanied by an offer to the club to break the contract that is dramatically higher than what we perceive as that player's replacement value, then it is quite likely the move is going to happen. If it doesn't, you preserve continuity, but risk a demotivated player. If it does, you have the chance to actually improve the team with a handpicked selection coming in.

 

Koeman has made clear he wants players motivated to play for Saints. And as a new manager, it's appealing to build your own team. So the £100m question is: will the board honor the various statements that have been made and implied that the full amount of incoming transfer money will be available to Koeman. If it is, it should be possible for him to materially improve the team compared to last year's, albeit it may take a couple months for the new combination to gel.

 

My own main response to what's happened this pre-season is awe at just how good Saints became in the last year - and what an amazing return we're getting on all that's been put into the academy. It's really incredible that the sale of just a few players has raised so much money. So count me among those urging patience. Let's see how the money is spent in this window - and the next.

 

Most of the big clubs now have their 2014 squads largely sorted. The big, crazy offers are going to slow, and we still have enough of a core that - combined with 4-5 carefully chosen newcomers will make a powerful squad.

 

I'll be among those upset if Morgan and Callum both leave... but I still think it's too early to be so dismissive of KL and the board. From a business pov, I suspect every other club is looking at what they've achieved with considerable respect.

 

My predictions:

Opening day, Liverpool 1 - Saints 1.

Midway through season, we'll lie around 12-14th

By end of season we'll climb to 10th or higher.

 

OK, now you can all shout at me.

Edited 26 July, 2014 by NewYorkSaint

[Goatboy]

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[ratio_decidendi]

I'm not sure I share your optimism for the opening day nor would I single Isgrove out for praise at this stage, but I think you're spot on with everything else. There's plenty of reasons for the fans to look at this with a 'glass half full' attitude. In my opinion, there's a lot of negative outcries that are simply knee-jerk reactions against what's happening now. Give it time and we'll look back at this experience as a tough one, but a highly beneficial one.

[Block 18]

New York Saint, thank you for a good post about the current situation, makes a pleasant change to read something positive rather than the constant dribble the bed-wetters have been posting on here lately about the clubs motivation and ambition. I read today a post from a guy on the Echo Saints forum Ive cut and paste it below:-

 

I have my own construction company and employ a dozen lads of all trades, I have a very good reputation built up over a few years, if I wanted to sell my company I would not let my best tradesmen go but if a bigger company offers them better pay they would go and there is nothing I could about it so not to bankrupt myself. I would hopefully look to add and improve the staff so my reputation is not damaged, also I would not spend money on improving my yard, and head hunt a new forman, I would not spend a single penny.

Same thing happening here at Saints, so the issue of asset stripping, and selling up is far from the truth, also all I here is we are losing 7/9 players for godsake three out two in all the rest is paper talk, maybe more will go and more will come in, remember our new manager may not rate some of our players as highly as you do? And might want to build his own team.

[simo]

Money in the bank doesn't win you any points in the premier league

[NewYorkSaint]

Money in the bank doesn't win you any points in the premier league

 

Agreed. That's why I said the £100m question is whether the £100m we've brought in is genuinely made available to RoKo (and Reed). I'd be surprised if he/they spent more than half of that this window. It would be better to spend half of it, let the team gel, and then add to it in January. But unless that money is taken away, I think that nothing that has happened so far proves bad faith behavior on behalf of KL or the board.

 

I get that people are impatient for good news. But there's still time enough, and it's important to get these decisions right. As they say in business: hire slow, fire fast.

[hutch]

Better than no money in the bank, tho'.

 

I'm sure there are a dozen or so PL clubs would sell their granny to be in our position.

[Rich102]

I'm increasingly on-board with the Liverpool sales and Shaw. If the players didn't want to be here post MoPo then we've done well to get shot, and get good prices for each. Can't see how their leaving for money and ambition is the fault of the board. (The Chambers sale worries me though because players like him have to be the Plan B now that we've sold the core of last year. There's also no rush for him to move on, and the price isn't too good to refuse. A strange one.)

 

That said i think the board should be judged on two things.

1) Who we bring in. Tadic and Pelle look good, but it's going to take a hell of a job to get 5 or 6 more players in the next few weeks.

2) Whether anyone else leaves (Morgan, Fonte, J-Rod, Cork). Given how strained the team is at this point it would be madness to lose any of these established players - almost regardless of price or foot stamping. Teams can only tolerate so much change and we're already in risky territory.

 

If we bring in 4 or 5 good quality players, and don't lose anyone else, I'd say the board have handled a s*** situation pretty well. And Koeman was a big coup, so reasons to have faith.

[Ohio Saint]

I'm increasingly on-board with the Liverpool sales and Shaw. If the players didn't want to be here post MoPo then we've done well to get shot, and get good prices for each. Can't see how their leaving for money and ambition is the fault of the board. (The Chambers sale worries me though because players like him have to be the Plan B now that we've sold the core of last year. There's also no rush for him to move on, and the price isn't too good to refuse. A strange one.)

 

That said i think the board should be judged on two things.

1) Who we bring in. Tadic and Pelle look good, but it's going to take a hell of a job to get 5 or 6 more players in the next few weeks.

2) Whether anyone else leaves (Morgan, Fonte, J-Rod, Cork). Given how strained the team is at this point it would be madness to lose any of these established players - almost regardless of price or foot stamping. Teams can only tolerate so much change and we're already in risky territory.

 

If we bring in 4 or 5 good quality players, and don't lose anyone else, I'd say the board have handled a s*** situation pretty well. And Koeman was a big coup, so reasons to have faith.

 

I can't pick any bones with this post. Spot on IMO.

[ratio_decidendi]

I'm increasingly on-board with the Liverpool sales and Shaw. If the players didn't want to be here post MoPo then we've done well to get shot, and get good prices for each. Can't see how their leaving for money and ambition is the fault of the board. (The Chambers sale worries me though because players like him have to be the Plan B now that we've sold the core of last year. There's also no rush for him to move on, and the price isn't too good to refuse. A strange one.)

 

That said i think the board should be judged on two things.

1) Who we bring in. Tadic and Pelle look good, but it's going to take a hell of a job to get 5 or 6 more players in the next few weeks.

2) Whether anyone else leaves (Morgan, Fonte, J-Rod, Cork). Given how strained the team is at this point it would be madness to lose any of these established players - almost regardless of price or foot stamping. Teams can only tolerate so much change and we're already in risky territory.

 

If we bring in 4 or 5 good quality players, and don't lose anyone else, I'd say the board have handled a s*** situation pretty well. And Koeman was a big coup, so reasons to have faith.

 

I think so many forget that, no matter how much you can knock his previous record, the decision to appoint Koeman is a big sign of ambition from the club. If we were looking to downsize etc. etc. then we'd be the ones appointing Alan Irvine and not WBA. There's such a big gulf of quality between the two managers.

[OldNick]

Agreed. That's why I said the £100m question is whether the £100m we've brought in is genuinely made available to RoKo (and Reed). I'd be surprised if he/they spent more than half of that this window. It would be better to spend half of it, let the team gel, and then add to it in January. But unless that money is taken away, I think that nothing that has happened so far proves bad faith behavior on behalf of KL or the board.

 

I get that people are impatient for good news. But there's still time enough, and it's important to get these decisions right. As they say in business: hire slow, fire fast.

for me the frustration is the club knew this was going to happen and were not ready. Most fans on here knew we were short in areas for most of last season. To then lose the quality and still not be ready to have replacements is mad.

The club got superb money for most of the players if not all, but that will be meaningless if we do not stay in the top flight. Whilst relegation may not be on the horizon yet I bet the odds of us doing so have changed.

Speaking to clients today, they all have a perception of the club in crisis , everyone leaving and having no players. If these people in Blackburn, Brighton, Crewe are thinking this I suspect players from around the UK and perhaps Europe may think we are doomed and so making harder for us to bring players in

[OldNick]

It wont be long for Pompey fans to be singing' Saints are going down with loads of money in the bank'

[hutch]

It wont be long for Pompey fans to be singing' Saints are going down with loads of money in the bank'

Keep taking the pills Nick. They're starting to work

[OldNick]

Keep taking the pills Nick. They're starting to work

I know, the Ugly pills worked a treat

[saint_ed]

I don't get the hype with Isgrove, he is no better prospect than Nathan Dyer.

[70's Mike]

I don't get the hype with Isgrove, he is no better prospect than Nathan Dyer.

 

not sure about that BUT people bigging Isgrove up are imo just looking for something positive out of a terrible 2 months.

i expect if you look back you can fine people bigging, after pre season freindlies, up youngsters that the 2 dutch prats under lowe brought in

[for_heaven's_Saint]

I don't get the hype with Isgrove, he is no better prospect than Nathan Dyer.

 

Yeah! And he would never play in the premier league!

[TwoPints]

for me the frustration is the club knew this was going to happen and were not ready. Most fans on here knew we were short in areas for most of last season. To then lose the quality and still not be ready to have replacements is mad.

The club got superb money for most of the players if not all, but that will be meaningless if we do not stay in the top flight. Whilst relegation may not be on the horizon yet I bet the odds of us doing so have changed.

Speaking to clients today, they all have a perception of the club in crisis , everyone leaving and having no players. If these people in Blackburn, Brighton, Crewe are thinking this I suspect players from around the UK and perhaps Europe may think we are doomed and so making harder for us to bring players in

You can't be ready with replacements until the new manager has made his choice. Imagine bringing a load of new players in and the new boss takes a look at them and thinks they're ****. I have no doubt that Koeman knows the types a of player he wants and in typical Saints style, they are going about their business to bring these players in in private.

 

If they publicised who they were trying to get in just to appease the moister sheeted fans on this forum then that would be a good reason to criticise the board. Patience is a virtue.

[OldNick]

You can't be ready with replacements until the new manager has made his choice. Imagine bringing a load of new players in and the new boss takes a look at them and thinks they're ****. I have no doubt that Koeman knows the types a of player he wants and in typical Saints style, they are going about their business to bring these players in in private.

 

If they publicised who they were trying to get in just to appease the moister sheeted fans on this forum then that would be a good reason to criticise the board. Patience is a virtue.

I can relate to that, but the idea of a transfer committee was that when a manager leaves you have seamless transition.

[Batman]

I appreciate glass half full and all that

 

but if say, west ham were losing 6+ from a pool of their 14 best players

we would be laughing our arses off and predicting nothing but relegation

[Alain Perrin]

I'm a generally positive person and, most often, support the board because I believe the job is harder than armchair football managers believe.

 

However, I do think that the situation has snowballed from them, starting with Rickie, then Lallana and Lovren pushing for moves. I genuinely believe Les Reed meant what he said about "probably met with a no", it's just circumstances have moved on.

 

The board have been weak, either by saying not for sale or by swapping in an immediate replacement. As it stands, they've lost the PR battle - with the fans, with the players and, most worrying, with potential recruits. The club has a whiff of crisis about it, justified or not, and that can't help retain our existing players or attract new ones.

 

What I can't understand is why they haven't tried to stem this? I don't get the asset strip argument (why spend 20m and recruit a top drawer manager?) but nor can I explain the seemingly slow recruitment policy.

 

I suspect Les et al have decided next season will be about rebuilding so don't expect anything spectacular. My worry is that with the upheaval, even that will be a big ask.

Sent from my RM-892_eu_euro1_227 using Tapatalk

[Saint Without a Halo]

I think so many forget that, no matter how much you can knock his previous record, the decision to appoint Koeman is a big sign of ambition from the club. If we were looking to downsize etc. etc. then we'd be the ones appointing Alan Irvine and not WBA. There's such a big gulf of quality between the two managers.

 

Bringing in Koeman fits perfectly if your plan is to consistently bring forward good youth surrond them by a few older players who will stay for one or two years max and then sell both types on

This is exactly how Feyenoord operate

[Saint Without a Halo]

You can't be ready with replacements until the new manager has made his choice. Imagine bringing a load of new players in and the new boss takes a look at them and thinks they're ****. I have no doubt that Koeman knows the types a of player he wants and in typical Saints style, they are going about their business to bring these players in in private.

 

If they publicised who they were trying to get in just to appease the moister sheeted fans on this forum then that would be a good reason to criticise the board. Patience is a virtue.

 

Agreed but you also don't let yours go first! it would have been very easy to manage one in one out as a policy they were all on reasonably long contracts.

[ratio_decidendi]

Bringing in Koeman fits perfectly if your plan is to consistently bring forward good youth surrond them by a few older players who will stay for one or two years max and then sell both types on

This is exactly how Feyenoord operate

 

Exactly, and it's an excellent sign of ambition to create a self sustaining model etc. I think I was trying to hit out at the swarms of posters I see in other threads who say we're downsizing, trying to sell for a quick buck etc. etc. I'm under no illusions here

[Colinjb]

It's hard to stay positive when I cannot see how the team is strong enough to survive next season. Particularly if Jay and Morgan also go.

[Macey_J2]

It's hard to stay positive when I cannot see how the team is strong enough to survive next season. Particularly if Jay and Morgan also go.

 

 

Our current squad as of 29th july 2014 @ 13.23 is not strong enough, but we have received nearly £100m for the players who have already left.

 

I will panic only when the transfer window closes and we haven't bought anymore than the two outfield players already signed. We need high quality replacements and have the money to get them and the attraction of P.L football for decent players around the world.

 

I'm just hoping the staff are working to get at least one player per player sold in the building asap!!!

[NewYorkSaint]

Chairman's public commitment on keeping Morgan and Jay is huge. It means the club recognizes that no matter how good the previous trades have been financially, enough is enough. Whether or not he had the players' agreement to stay (and I suspect he did) it was the right thing to say. Even people who want to leave may reconsider if they can see that a public commitment has been made which will delay any departure for at least six months. So I think both players will now give RoKo and the club a chance. With 3-4 new signings, the glass may well soon look a fuller than it did last night.

 

The dynamic between Krueger and Reed is strange. Last time he spoke publicly implying no sales Lambert was announced soon after. I suspect he may have felt a little backstabbed by Reed over that... (no evidence, except the timing). But this is a much more clearcut commitment. There's no way the club will renege on this.

Edited 29 July, 2014 by NewYorkSaint

[Whitey Grandad]

Our current squad as of 29th july 2014 @ 13.23 is not strong enough, but we have received nearly £100m for the players who have already left.

 

I will panic only when the transfer window closes and we haven't bought anymore than the two outfield players already signed. We need high quality replacements and have the money to get them and the attraction of P.L football for decent players around the world.

 

I'm just hoping the staff are working to get at least one player per player sold in the building asap!!!

 

You can say this as many times as you like, some people seem to be having trouble understanding this process.

[NewYorkSaint]

Lloyd Isgrove!

I stand by my suggestion that he's one of our main reasons to be cheerful. I really think that when the story of this season is written, his name will be a big part of it.

The kid is remarkable. Ever since seeing his astounding pace in LAST season's preseason, I've been excited by him. Looks like this could be his year.

Saint's ability to produce players like him, Ward-Prowse, Targett... that's what makes the difference. The transfer craziness comes and goes (and it now looks like we'll end up getting as good as we've lost, and for less money)... but when you can add new home-grown talent coming through, wow... that really changes things.

[sadoldgit]

Chairman's public commitment on keeping Morgan and Jay is huge. It means the club recognizes that no matter how good the previous trades have been financially, enough is enough. Whether or not he had the players' agreement to stay (and I suspect he did) it was the right thing to say. Even people who want to leave may reconsider if they can see that a public commitment has been made which will delay any departure for at least six months. So I think both players will now give RoKo and the club a chance. With 3-4 new signings, the glass may well soon look a fuller than it did last night.

 

The dynamic between Krueger and Reed is strange. Last time he spoke publicly implying no sales Lambert was announced soon after. I suspect he may have felt a little backstabbed by Reed over that... (no evidence, except the timing). But this is a much more clearcut commitment. There's no way the club will renege on this.

 

Dude, you speak so much sense, are you sure you are on the right forum?