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New party leaders


pap

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I've been most impressed by what Liz Kendall's had to say so far, but do worry that she isn't "prime ministerial" enough for the electorate

Never let it be forgotten that we elected John Major. And Gordon Brown.

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Another straight-bat rerun of Blairism would never work. Ultimately Blair could afford to take the North and Scotland for granted as he made peace down South. In the short-term, it worked spectacularly well; but it also began a long-term process of estrangement that has seen support in the North and Scotland splinter to the SNP, UKIP and other smaller parties.

 

That is the most salient legacy of Blairism as it relates to the rebuilding and future of the Labour party. Blair had it relatively easy; any future Labour leader has the nightmare of realigning three different constituencies. The biggest thing Labour can hope for is that the Tories become spectacularly unpopular and voters realise that FPTP is, at its core, a two-party game.

 

Labour might not find it quite so hard in 2020 if Cameron gets the EU immigration reforms that he wants and we then vote to stay in the EU. That will **** on the chips of UKIP (if they're still around in their current guise) who took an awful lot of "working class" votes away from Labour in the Midlands and the North and allowed the Tories to take a lot of their target seats from Labour. Give a wedge of those votes back to Labour and it's a different story.

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Labour might not find it quite so hard in 2020 if Cameron gets the EU immigration reforms that he wants and we then vote to stay in the EU. That will **** on the chips of UKIP (if they're still around in their current guise) who took an awful lot of "working class" votes away from Labour in the Midlands and the North and allowed the Tories to take a lot of their target seats from Labour. Give a wedge of those votes back to Labour and it's a different story.

 

There will of course be boundary changes to cancel out Labour's Northern 'bonus'. That is worth 20 seats apparently. There is of course Scotland and I cannot see how they will not vote tribally from now on. We will however all be sick of the current mob in five years because that is how it normally works.

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At heck of a lot can happen in five years - look at 1992 compared with 1997, and Blair only had three years or so as leader before that election.

 

A Conservative collapse over Europe; or a resurgent Labour party under a new leader (not necessarily the next one); or both of those things could happen before 2020.

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There will of course be boundary changes to cancel out Labour's Northern 'bonus'. That is worth 20 seats apparently. There is of course Scotland and I cannot see how they will not vote tribally from now on. We will however all be sick of the current mob in five years because that is how it normally works.

 

5 years of Tory austerity will soon make the Scots realise how pointless voting SNP is.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham, Liz Kendall and Mary Creagh have announced they will stand for the Labour leadership.

 

Ms Harman said ex-deputy leader Margaret Beckett would also lead a commission to examine "in a forensic way" the reasons behind Labour's election defeat.

I'm sure there's a bit of a trend in there somewhere, if only I could see it.

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