SaintBobby

Think MotD said we'd lost 27 points from winning positions this season (okay, that's just about conceding leads, not necessarily conceding goals late on, but surely part and parcel fo the same problem) How many points have we picked up this season from losing positions? The Spurs game at home comes to mind, but not a great deal else.

Yep, I share this worry. We can't just get rid of much deadwood without making something of a loss on transfers and/or subsidising wages when they depart. On the upside, RH has done wonders with a slimmer squad, maybe we only need a couple of additions.

I appreciate you struggle with maths and stats, rather like your mate Turkish. (Although you haven’t yet randomly added points to Cardiff’s 31 nor knocked off a Saints point either, to be fair) How many points do you think Cardiff will finish on this season? (Handy hint: they currently have 31, not 32) (Even handier hint: if you were to switch their win at St Mary’s to a loss, it would - ceteris parabus - be 28, but quite possibly lower if you put any store in momentum or “run of form” or whatever) (Still more handy hint: draws count for a point - so the total number of wins is not the only determinant of your points total) (Hint to save you having to use google: “ceteris parabus” means “all other things equal”)

And you shall receive it. Obviously, the defeat at St Mary’s to Cardiff narrowed the gap. Looks to me like 28 points might otherwise prove to have been enough to stay up...ie 5 wins & 13 draws. We will see. Fortunately, it’s proven irrelevant- but the number of points per game you need to stay up each season is probably edging downwards.

And you shall receive it. Obviously, the defeat at St Mary’s to Cardiff narrowed the gap. Looks to me like 28 points might otherwise prove to have been enough to stay up...ie 5 wins & 13 draws. We will see. Fortunately, it’s proven irrelevant- but the number of points per game you need to stay up each season is probably edging downwards.

Anyone else expecting a quiet transfer window? In rough terms, I’d expect the loaned players to not return and little other activity. I think a quality CB is a top priority, not so sure on CF (need quality, rather than depth in this role, whereas at CB I think we need someone to relegate Stephens to 5th choice, not necessarily a £20m first choice) Obviously, we have zero cover at RB, but other than that, I’d expect to simply replace what we lose (eg if Lemina goes, a new CM...if Bertrand goes, a new LB etc).

All done and dusted, assuming Cardiff aren’t awarded a magical 32nd point by Turkish and - simultaneously - again, on Turkish maths, one of our draws isn’t magically turned into a defeat. Looks to me that hopes of finishing higher than 16th aren’t great though - probably needed a win today.

Great achievement. When RH came in and for his first (non-game) we lost at Cardiff, I feared we were doomed. In the final reckoning, we have turned the corner after the total disaster of last season and the horrific start to this one. An especially amazing performance given the January window, which means the cost of the squad since then has fallen a lot, while the results have improved a lot.

I’m with you. It’s tricky. Let’s be clear. Turkish knows his maths. He lives & thrives on it. He intellectually slaughters those below his IQ. Tough cookie. So, with Cardiff on 32 points and our point tonight written off (because one draw = 0, according to Turkish), we are still in a battle to stay up. I very much hope that standard maths & numeracy beat Turkish maths (in which case we are safe)...

We should be okay. As long as Cardiff don’t pick up a magical point from Turkish and as long as our draws count for a point each. If Cardiff are on a Turkish 32 points and we have a point deducted (15+9=23), it might go to the last game. Fingers crossed.

That Sunderland v Skates game next week is pretty big now.

When slamming someone else’s maths, probably best not to assert the following things: a. 31= 32 b. 15 + 9 = 23 HTH.

I’m also trying to work out how - according to Turkish - a team on 15 points which then gets two wins (which, I think equates to a total of six points) and three draws (which, I believe amounts to three points) has acquired 9 points to add to the fifteen they have, but only end up with 23. I’m pretty sure 15+9 = 24. Is there some rule that transfers the 24th point to Cardiff City to magically put them on a tally of 32 rather than 31? Asking for a friend.

Probably expecting a bit much of Ralph to convert a ton of 6/10 players to 8/10 or 9/10. But you do get the feeling that RH can unlock potential. Boufal’s potential is surely way higher than what we tend to see (the odd wonder goal or one match performance aside). Also, he would suit our system pretty well, I think. More excited about the chance to rehabilitate Boufal than I am about trying to make Hoedt or Clasie into players anywhere near the starting eleven...

Yeah, sorry I didn’t base it on the current league table, failing to take account of the Brighton win. You’re obviously a bit retarded when it comes to statistics though. I mean a lot of folk aren’t necessarily that bothered about binomial distributions and such like. But very few people of your tragically below average intelligence display your misplaced arrogance. There’s always a range of possible outcomes. At a conceivable, albeit extreme end, the bottom three could have tanked - not just the bottom two. Was a little unlikely that the team in 18th would get 24 points (although the prediction assumed a loss, not a win at St Mary’s), but not impossible. It’s not a prediction that 25 points will secure safety - it’s in a range of outcomes and at an admitted extreme end. Could now be as low as 31 or as high as 40. Likely to be much closer to 31, but not certain.

They’re on 32 points now? Wow. You must be looking at a futuristic league table. In fairness, I was looking at a previous league table (prior to their win at Brighton). So, they’d actually be on 28 points now, given the mystical 32nd point you’ve just invented doesn’t actually exist. Let’s see how it pans out. Cardiff could get anything from zero points to nine more. If it’s zero (or just one), Saints would obviously not have needed a hatful of points to stay up, to put it mildly. Indeed, a total of just 5 wins, 16 draws and 17 defeats would be enough if our GD was better than Cardiff’s woeful tally, if they lose the next three.

well, one of those had to be against Cardiff - which would mean they’d now be on 25 points, not 28. Actually, I think the prediction might turn out to be pretty close. If Cardiff lose their remaining matches, it will turn out to have been 100% on the money, amazingly.

yep, sorry for the typo. Mancs. They’re all the same ;-) (fortunately, we don’t have just one Manc team having to play our relegation rivals simultaneously!)

I think I got the stats/maths right here (am assuming our massive GD advantage over Cardiff can't be overhauled, while our GD position vis-a-vis Brighton is goign to be pretty close if they pick up more points than us between now and the end of the season). The permutations on our 99.5% chance of staying up with us playing Watford (A), Bournemouth (H), West Ham (A) and Huddersfield (H). Cardiff face Fulham (A), Palace (H) and Man Utd (A). Brighton have Spurs (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A), Man Utd (H) 4+ points = safety guaranteed 3 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 5 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us above Brighton) 2 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 4 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us ahead of Brighton) 1 point = safe unless Cardiff pick up at least 2 wins plus a draw AND Brighton take 3 points from 4 matches (even then GD might keep us above Brighton) 0 points = safe unless Cardiff pick up 2 wins AND Brighton pick up 2 more points (same rider applies on GD)

The permutations on our 99.5% chance of staying up with us playing Watford (A), Bournemouth (H), West Ham (A) and Huddersfield (H). Cardiff face Fulham (A), Palace (H) and Man Utd (A). Brighton have Spurs (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A), Man City (H) 4+ points = safety guaranteed 3 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 5 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us above Brighton) 2 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 4 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us ahead of Brighton) 1 point = safe unless Cardiff pick up at least 2 wins plus a draw AND Brighton take 3 points from 4 matches (even then GD might keep us above Brighton) 0 points = safe unless Cardiff pick up 2 wins AND Brighton pick up 2 more points (same rider applies on GD)

The 40 point target is a pernnial just because it's a round number. In practice, you can usually stay up on less than that (and we have, several times, I think) I'd agree that we're basically safe already. Even if we lose all four remaining games, it's very unlikely that Cardiff will pick up two wins out of three. Even if it that happens, there's the fair chance that Brighton will only pick up a point or less against Spurs (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A) and Man City (H).

Seem to remember supporting them against the skates in the dim, distant past, but pretty much, yeah....

First time in forever that I've been cheering on the scousers....

Saints - 42 points, 15th Relegated - Cardiff 33 points Champions - Man City CL slots = Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal Up - Norwich, Leeds and Villa via play offs FA Cup - Man City CL winners - Barcelona Pompey - lose play off final

Well, would have preferred a Cardiff loss just to make ultra safe. But as others have said, we probably don’t need any more points and will probably end up picking up half a dozen or so. So, all good really. I’d also prefer Brighton to go down rather than Cardiff, I think.