SaintBobby

Liverpool 2-1 up after a stupid penalty. Kind of wanted Fulham to win this one, as they can't catch us anyway IMHO.

Watford and Wolves both winning must be a slight help to us. Neither have anything to play for in the league really, and so are likely to focus on the Cup. Probably only of marginal benefit, but you can imagine their players wishing to avoid yellow/red cards at almost any price, players with very minor niggles being rested/subbed etc. I still think the FA Cup probably saved us last season - our run to the semis meant we ended up playing Swansea when they were in a death spiral rather than in the middle of a decent-ish patch of form.

Turned out just fine, fortunately!

Isn't Carillo still on the books too? I feel we will struggle to keep Lemina (sadly)

Yep...and pretty much stick to it. I did say the wins needed to include beating Cardiff at St Mary's, and we blew that one badly, which seriously affects the maths when you screw up a massive six pointer. Had we even drawn that match, we'd be very close to safe by now (say 30/1). Had we won it, we'd now be 8 clear of Cardiff with 9 games to go and with them averaging less than a point a game, we would stand a fair chance of staying up even if we lost all the remaining matches. The spread of points Cardiff are likely to get from here is anyone's guess. I would think their anticipated return is about six points (7 or 8 points based on their results to date, but they have a tougher than average run in). But, optimistically, it could be measurably lower than that. Perhaps just two, three or four. Saints' odds on being relegated are so long because Cardiff have so much to do.

I'd say 9/1 or 10/1 is about right. Basically, can't see where Cardiff are going to get the points from. Our GD means they need to get three more points than us over nine games. How many points is it likely Cardiff will get? Not sure, but could well be just 4 or 5 given their run in. If they do perform that poorly, we'd only need a small handful of points.

Well, today could have been worse....we just need to stay ahead of Cardiff, that's how I see it.

Geees....robbed

Boll ox

Cardiff are 2-0 down....

You can always spot the people who watch it on tele. The empty seats are usually directly behind the goals. So, when, say, JWP scores and the cameras zoom in, you see maybe 60% of seats empty (out of maybe 500) Both flanks were pretty full. Haven't seen the attendance number, I'd guess 29K-30K?

Have no idea how we got a point out of that. Gees, we were utter ****e

Great win after the screw up in the Cup. Feeling very confident of staying up now.

That's ruined my day. Let's hope Spurs can at least spell Hasenhuttl's first name correctly, right? Given you can't, I feel sure he will appreciate moving to a fan base that gives a toss.

Is there a case for signing no one in this window? It would be great to spunk another £40m or so on players. But it isn't much of my money (other than my season ticket!)

Possibly. I'm not saying it's certain that good Saints managers will end up at Spurs or Everton - just that they are the most obvious threats when it comes to poaching our managers. Bigger clubs probably not interested (namely, Man C, Man U, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea) and any other English clubs aren't obviously a step up from being at Saints.

Spurs and Everton seem the obvious (domestic) threats. Not just because we lost Poch and Koeman to them, but because they represent an achievable "step up" for a Saints manager. I would think it unlikely that, say, Man Utd, Man City or Liverpool would recruit a Saints manager as their next job.

Well, if true, you can make a ton of money on the spread betting markets. So if, for example, you think a team making X points per match will make 3x/2 per match in the second half of the season, then I refer you to sportingindex. You'll make a killing.

Will iss him. Not one of our best players - by a long way - but a top pro and full of fighting spirit.

I think he is targeting 8 and good on him. I'm pretty sure he doesn't think we need to win 8 to avoid relegation. He's just aiming rather higher than merely scraping survival.

Not really. If at the halfway point of the season, the bottom five teams all had zero wins, it would be pretty reasonable to posit that you might well stay up with one or two wins by the end of the season. At the halfway point this season, the points per game ratio for the bottom four or five was truly dire. It remains very poor.

How many wins do you think we need to stay up? I'd say it's now possibly 3, maybe 4, given Burnley's two recent wins.

Pumpkin, pumpkin, pumpkin....try to relax and let me explain... The performance of the bottom cluster of teams heading into Xmas was very poor compared to the usual points per game total needed to stay up. In previous “real life” Premier League seasons, there’s even been a time where 40 points was insufficient to stay up. I have to tell you, sweetie pie, that looks very unlikely this year indeed. There has been a mild reversion to the mean in the last few results (two wins for Burnley, a surprise away win for Cardiff) and the points total needed has also ticked up with Huddersfield falling off a cliff by losing all three recent matches against their competitors, honeypie. That does make two more wins now pretty unlikely given that recent, highly odds against, turn of events in the last few matches. But, honeybun, it doesn’t utterly transform things. Somewhere around 28 or 29 points could well be enough to stay up this year, sweetpea. So, a team with a hatful of draws could well stay up on 6 wins. In the “real life” Premier League, my pumpkin pie, draws are worth one point and wins are worth three. So, sweetie, you do need to look at the number of draws, not just the number of wins. So, cherub, a final tally of W 5 D 15 L 18 could just about, at a pinch, keep a team up, even now. More likely though, you probably now need six wins in Saints’ position. Seven wins in total would be extremely likely to secure survival, all things equal. Just to clarify for you, cherrykins; 1. 2 more wins and a load of draws = now pretty damned unlikely to survive given recent results, but not totally out of the question. 2. 3 more wins and a good number of draws = cutting it fine, but pretty fair chance. 3. 4 or more wins = very probably safe, assuming you pick up some draws. Hope that helps you, honeybun, try not to get too stressed. Stay calm and take deep breaths.

What the f-ing hell is the baby shark song? Asking for a friend...

I'm usually one for "going for it" in the Cups, but given the league position, I'd go with a lot of second string players for this. Although with suspensions, injuries and maybe a few squad players leaving, I'm not sure I know who our second string really are anymore....