SaintBobby

Will iss him. Not one of our best players - by a long way - but a top pro and full of fighting spirit.

I think he is targeting 8 and good on him. I'm pretty sure he doesn't think we need to win 8 to avoid relegation. He's just aiming rather higher than merely scraping survival.

Not really. If at the halfway point of the season, the bottom five teams all had zero wins, it would be pretty reasonable to posit that you might well stay up with one or two wins by the end of the season. At the halfway point this season, the points per game ratio for the bottom four or five was truly dire. It remains very poor.

How many wins do you think we need to stay up? I'd say it's now possibly 3, maybe 4, given Burnley's two recent wins.

Pumpkin, pumpkin, pumpkin....try to relax and let me explain... The performance of the bottom cluster of teams heading into Xmas was very poor compared to the usual points per game total needed to stay up. In previous “real life” Premier League seasons, there’s even been a time where 40 points was insufficient to stay up. I have to tell you, sweetie pie, that looks very unlikely this year indeed. There has been a mild reversion to the mean in the last few results (two wins for Burnley, a surprise away win for Cardiff) and the points total needed has also ticked up with Huddersfield falling off a cliff by losing all three recent matches against their competitors, honeypie. That does make two more wins now pretty unlikely given that recent, highly odds against, turn of events in the last few matches. But, honeybun, it doesn’t utterly transform things. Somewhere around 28 or 29 points could well be enough to stay up this year, sweetpea. So, a team with a hatful of draws could well stay up on 6 wins. In the “real life” Premier League, my pumpkin pie, draws are worth one point and wins are worth three. So, sweetie, you do need to look at the number of draws, not just the number of wins. So, cherub, a final tally of W 5 D 15 L 18 could just about, at a pinch, keep a team up, even now. More likely though, you probably now need six wins in Saints’ position. Seven wins in total would be extremely likely to secure survival, all things equal. Just to clarify for you, cherrykins; 1. 2 more wins and a load of draws = now pretty damned unlikely to survive given recent results, but not totally out of the question. 2. 3 more wins and a good number of draws = cutting it fine, but pretty fair chance. 3. 4 or more wins = very probably safe, assuming you pick up some draws. Hope that helps you, honeybun, try not to get too stressed. Stay calm and take deep breaths.

What the f-ing hell is the baby shark song? Asking for a friend...

I'm usually one for "going for it" in the Cups, but given the league position, I'd go with a lot of second string players for this. Although with suspensions, injuries and maybe a few squad players leaving, I'm not sure I know who our second string really are anymore....

Well, sweetpea, I'm not sure if you're aware but Burnley won two on the spin...and Cardiff won away at Leicester, my little honeypie. The combined odds on that happening was about 30/1, so it does make the likely final points position of the table a bit different - but not massively so. Does that make sense, my cute little cherrykins?

Back to back wins for Burnley obviously changes the odds. Even so, three wins likely enough. Even now. You don’t seem able to grasp how actual results alter future odds. But you’re clearly very badly mentally and socially retarded, so I guess we need to make allowances.

Into the bottom 3, but superb point....

Gees...am I alone in thinking we played okay? I mean not great, but 6/10 ish?

Emailed the question (would only two wins be enough for Saints to stay up?) to a mate who mucks around with the stats and methodology on the 538.com predictions website. His answer is “yes, probably, but with a proviso”. If those two wins came against the bottom three (and we drew with the other), then in those circumstances the chances of staying up are higher than 50%. Of course, once you cap the number of predicted wins, the chance of draws in other matches goes up accordingly. So, we’d probably be looking at something like W2 D9 L9. On expected outcomes, he says only three wins - against any opponents - would give Saints a >50% chance of staying up (again, a lot of draws would be the corollary). Only four wins and the % goes to about 75%. So, the answer the opening question could well be “not likely to be enough, but just about possible”. Rather more likely than an earthquake hitting St Mary’s, I’m sure we can all agree.

Oh dear. The cretin can’t even distinguish between a premise and a question. What a total retard.

If we somehow get 2 wins and 18 draws, that would put us on 39 points. Easily enough, surely!? (Didn't we stay up last season on 33...with a 3 point buffer in the end?)

And we will end up on 75 points. I'd suggest basing a projection on a team's last two games is very rash. Basing a projection on their last 19 games is somewhat sounder....(although not foolproof)

Not only have I read the title. I was even able to write it. It's a headline. A provocation. It ends in a question mark (that's the "?" sign, in case you didn't know, btw). If you are able to read - which is rather doubtful - you will have noticed that it contains content such as "ok, these are extreme numbers"...."no one would want to cut it this close"...."or assume it will be this close". You seem to have derived from this that my suggestion to the Chairman is that we should only target winning two more games this season. You are glad the Chairman won't be "taking (my) view". I can only conclude that you are seriously mentally retarded and have an ability to process words and information that is measurably worse than that of my 4 year old niece. Perhaps even closer to the intellectual level of my cat (he is a bright cat, to be fair)

You are clearly a cretin, who can barely read or process information. 1. I didn't say our target should be to try and win only 2 games, just that it was just about possible that it would be enough to stay up - at a stretch. 2. No team has ever stayed in the Premier League with 25 points. I think it may have happened with 30. My point was the bottom few teams are especially poor this season. 3. This is happening on planet Earth. I am sorry for your educational retardation. You clearly have an IQ of about 60 or below. Bless.

Good stat. So, that's about 3 or 4 more points each (9.8 divided by 3)....that would put the bar at c27 points.

Haven't run the numbers on that tbh, but I'm still willing to say you're wrong - even though I'm guessing a bit. There was the old "bottom at Xmas = relegation" rule (broken by WBA when we went down in 2005, I think) Obviously, if you have zero points after 19 games, things can't get worse, getting one draw and 18 defeats is an improvement! But I'd never heard the idea that the weaker teams get better in the second half of the season. If that's true, it implies that the top teams get worse. Possible, I guess. But have never seen any actual evidence for it.

The bottom end of the league is so dire this season, that you may only need scraps to stay up. For everyone other than ourselves and West Ham, the season is halfway through. If the three bottom teams replicate their performances in the second half of the season over the next 19 matches, they will end up as follows: 18th Burnley 24 pts, GD -48 19th Fulham 22 pts GD -52 20th Huddersfield 20 pts GD -44 If that were to happen, Saints would stay up if our next twenty games result in 2 wins, 3 draws and 15 defeats...as long as we don't worsen our goal difference by more than 34. Ok, these are extreme numbers. And no one would want to cut it as close as this (or assume that it will be this close), but the hurdle to stay up could be pathetically low. And that's the limit of my ambitions just for now!

Halfway through the season and it looks possible that as few as 24 points might be enough to stay up. Crazy. In reality, I expect it to be more like 30 points, but the entirely made up "40 points for safety" cliche is surely total nonsense this year? (and is nonsense most years tbh)

Amazing stat from Jeff Stelling on Sky....higher attendance at Sunderland v Bradford that as Tottenham v Bournemouth....

I guess we want Palace to beat Cardiff? Or are we optimistic enough to be looking to catch Palace rather than merely stay ahead of Cardiff?

We are about 9/1 to be relegated too. You are right that if we beat Man City we are more likely to finish in the top half. But that's reflected in the odds. Beating Arsenal and Huddersfield saw our relegation odds shift from 3/1 to 9/1, so - if you knew in advance we were going to win those games you could have trebled your money. The bookies think it's an 80% chance that we finish somewhere between 11th and 17th. That sounds about right to me.

This. His movement was also vital for an assist in an earlier game (was it that he dropped back and then slotted it to Armstrong?) Seems to find space in the box, just by shifting a yard or two.