SaintBobby

We should be okay. As long as Cardiff don’t pick up a magical point from Turkish and as long as our draws count for a point each. If Cardiff are on a Turkish 32 points and we have a point deducted (15+9=23), it might go to the last game. Fingers crossed.

That Sunderland v Skates game next week is pretty big now.

When slamming someone else’s maths, probably best not to assert the following things: a. 31= 32 b. 15 + 9 = 23 HTH.

I’m also trying to work out how - according to Turkish - a team on 15 points which then gets two wins (which, I think equates to a total of six points) and three draws (which, I believe amounts to three points) has acquired 9 points to add to the fifteen they have, but only end up with 23. I’m pretty sure 15+9 = 24. Is there some rule that transfers the 24th point to Cardiff City to magically put them on a tally of 32 rather than 31? Asking for a friend.

Probably expecting a bit much of Ralph to convert a ton of 6/10 players to 8/10 or 9/10. But you do get the feeling that RH can unlock potential. Boufal’s potential is surely way higher than what we tend to see (the odd wonder goal or one match performance aside). Also, he would suit our system pretty well, I think. More excited about the chance to rehabilitate Boufal than I am about trying to make Hoedt or Clasie into players anywhere near the starting eleven...

Yeah, sorry I didn’t base it on the current league table, failing to take account of the Brighton win. You’re obviously a bit retarded when it comes to statistics though. I mean a lot of folk aren’t necessarily that bothered about binomial distributions and such like. But very few people of your tragically below average intelligence display your misplaced arrogance. There’s always a range of possible outcomes. At a conceivable, albeit extreme end, the bottom three could have tanked - not just the bottom two. Was a little unlikely that the team in 18th would get 24 points (although the prediction assumed a loss, not a win at St Mary’s), but not impossible. It’s not a prediction that 25 points will secure safety - it’s in a range of outcomes and at an admitted extreme end. Could now be as low as 31 or as high as 40. Likely to be much closer to 31, but not certain.

They’re on 32 points now? Wow. You must be looking at a futuristic league table. In fairness, I was looking at a previous league table (prior to their win at Brighton). So, they’d actually be on 28 points now, given the mystical 32nd point you’ve just invented doesn’t actually exist. Let’s see how it pans out. Cardiff could get anything from zero points to nine more. If it’s zero (or just one), Saints would obviously not have needed a hatful of points to stay up, to put it mildly. Indeed, a total of just 5 wins, 16 draws and 17 defeats would be enough if our GD was better than Cardiff’s woeful tally, if they lose the next three.

well, one of those had to be against Cardiff - which would mean they’d now be on 25 points, not 28. Actually, I think the prediction might turn out to be pretty close. If Cardiff lose their remaining matches, it will turn out to have been 100% on the money, amazingly.

yep, sorry for the typo. Mancs. They’re all the same ;-) (fortunately, we don’t have just one Manc team having to play our relegation rivals simultaneously!)

I think I got the stats/maths right here (am assuming our massive GD advantage over Cardiff can't be overhauled, while our GD position vis-a-vis Brighton is goign to be pretty close if they pick up more points than us between now and the end of the season). The permutations on our 99.5% chance of staying up with us playing Watford (A), Bournemouth (H), West Ham (A) and Huddersfield (H). Cardiff face Fulham (A), Palace (H) and Man Utd (A). Brighton have Spurs (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A), Man Utd (H) 4+ points = safety guaranteed 3 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 5 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us above Brighton) 2 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 4 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us ahead of Brighton) 1 point = safe unless Cardiff pick up at least 2 wins plus a draw AND Brighton take 3 points from 4 matches (even then GD might keep us above Brighton) 0 points = safe unless Cardiff pick up 2 wins AND Brighton pick up 2 more points (same rider applies on GD)

The permutations on our 99.5% chance of staying up with us playing Watford (A), Bournemouth (H), West Ham (A) and Huddersfield (H). Cardiff face Fulham (A), Palace (H) and Man Utd (A). Brighton have Spurs (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A), Man City (H) 4+ points = safety guaranteed 3 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 5 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us above Brighton) 2 points = safe unless Cardiff win all three of their matches AND Brighton take 4 points from their 4 games (even then GD might keep us ahead of Brighton) 1 point = safe unless Cardiff pick up at least 2 wins plus a draw AND Brighton take 3 points from 4 matches (even then GD might keep us above Brighton) 0 points = safe unless Cardiff pick up 2 wins AND Brighton pick up 2 more points (same rider applies on GD)

The 40 point target is a pernnial just because it's a round number. In practice, you can usually stay up on less than that (and we have, several times, I think) I'd agree that we're basically safe already. Even if we lose all four remaining games, it's very unlikely that Cardiff will pick up two wins out of three. Even if it that happens, there's the fair chance that Brighton will only pick up a point or less against Spurs (A), Newcastle (H), Arsenal (A) and Man City (H).

Seem to remember supporting them against the skates in the dim, distant past, but pretty much, yeah....

First time in forever that I've been cheering on the scousers....

Saints - 42 points, 15th Relegated - Cardiff 33 points Champions - Man City CL slots = Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal Up - Norwich, Leeds and Villa via play offs FA Cup - Man City CL winners - Barcelona Pompey - lose play off final

Well, would have preferred a Cardiff loss just to make ultra safe. But as others have said, we probably don’t need any more points and will probably end up picking up half a dozen or so. So, all good really. I’d also prefer Brighton to go down rather than Cardiff, I think.

It does look like it will be Cardiff or just conceivably Brighton. The bookies have Cardiff at 1/20 and Brighton at around 11/1 to go down. You can get odds as long as 500/1 on Saints or Burnley. Although it's a ludicrously over-used term, Tuesday really is "must win" for Cardiff. Even if they do, they are still about 1/5 to finish 18th.

Maybe. Getting to the right decision is obviously what matters. But the laws of the game - or at least convention - have always been that a refereeing decision can't be undone, I thought? For example, a ref might get the decision right by pausing for a couple of minutes, whipping out his mobile phone, logging on to the Sky Sports app and seeing if Sky thought it was a penalty or not on their running commentary. That might help get to the right decision, but it would be a bit weird (and probably a breach of the laws of the game?)

Just to ask again on the Cardiff non-penalty. Did the ref give the penalty because he was, say, about 75% certain it was a pen, but wanted a second opinion and then the lino talked him out of it or did he give the penalty because he thought the lino was signalling for one, went over to check this and the lino said "no, I got it wrong..." or "I was signalling for something else, sorry guv." I'm struggling to remember any other occasion in which a referee has made a decision, sought further advice and then reversed it (other than VAR, obviously). In my dim distant memory, I think there was some fiasco in the France v Kuwait match at the 1982 World Cup where the ref gave a goal, then over-turned it because the defending players claimed to have heard a whistle from the crowd and stropped, believing the ball to be dead. At least Mike Dean ended up with the right decision, but I've never seen a correct decision reached through such a route (i.e. not by the referee simply consulting with his officials and then deciding on something, but rather deciding on something and only then consulting with his officials).

Still hoping for a desired treble this season: 1. Saints stay up 2. Pompey stay down 3. Liverpool choke again Quietly confident of 2 and 3. Supremely confident of 1.

Can anyone explain to me what happened re: Mike Dean and his flip flop on the Cardiff penalty decision yesterday? Why did he change his mind? Did he misinterpret a flag or message from the lino and then simply clarify it? Still can't quite work out the chain of events/thought process.

Is the Brighton-Cardiff match on the tele? Weird if not, pretty vital game.

Bednarek for me. But I don't expect him to win overall - being great at CB is less eye-catching than being an explosive goalscorer. Most likely Redmond will win any vote. Maybe JWP.

I'm not really sure of the veracity of the data on that site. Don't they treat all results as equally likely, so all 20 teams start the season with a 5% chance of winning the league? If we lose to Wolves and Cardiff beat Burnley, it feels to me like our relegation risk goes up a lot. Basically, all I care about at the moment is staying well clear of Cardiff. If we end up pushing towards 12th, that's just a bonus.

I reckon Cardiff are toast. The bookies now have them at about 1/8 to go down. Saints are about 66/1. Obviously, they can technically win all their last six games and get 18 more points. But if they keep up their present points per game rate, they will only get about 5 more points. They really need six points to overtake us (due to our better GD) even if we lose all of our remaining games. Looking at their run in, it's a mix of matches against the top teams and others involved in the relegation scrap. My guess would be they are only going to pick up 4, 5 or 6 points. Maybe lower.