SaintBobby

Well, today could have been worse....we just need to stay ahead of Cardiff, that's how I see it.

Geees....robbed

Boll ox

Cardiff are 2-0 down....

You can always spot the people who watch it on tele. The empty seats are usually directly behind the goals. So, when, say, JWP scores and the cameras zoom in, you see maybe 60% of seats empty (out of maybe 500) Both flanks were pretty full. Haven't seen the attendance number, I'd guess 29K-30K?

Have no idea how we got a point out of that. Gees, we were utter ****e

Great win after the screw up in the Cup. Feeling very confident of staying up now.

That's ruined my day. Let's hope Spurs can at least spell Hasenhuttl's first name correctly, right? Given you can't, I feel sure he will appreciate moving to a fan base that gives a toss.

Is there a case for signing no one in this window? It would be great to spunk another £40m or so on players. But it isn't much of my money (other than my season ticket!)

Possibly. I'm not saying it's certain that good Saints managers will end up at Spurs or Everton - just that they are the most obvious threats when it comes to poaching our managers. Bigger clubs probably not interested (namely, Man C, Man U, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea) and any other English clubs aren't obviously a step up from being at Saints.

Spurs and Everton seem the obvious (domestic) threats. Not just because we lost Poch and Koeman to them, but because they represent an achievable "step up" for a Saints manager. I would think it unlikely that, say, Man Utd, Man City or Liverpool would recruit a Saints manager as their next job.

Well, if true, you can make a ton of money on the spread betting markets. So if, for example, you think a team making X points per match will make 3x/2 per match in the second half of the season, then I refer you to sportingindex. You'll make a killing.

Will iss him. Not one of our best players - by a long way - but a top pro and full of fighting spirit.

I think he is targeting 8 and good on him. I'm pretty sure he doesn't think we need to win 8 to avoid relegation. He's just aiming rather higher than merely scraping survival.

Not really. If at the halfway point of the season, the bottom five teams all had zero wins, it would be pretty reasonable to posit that you might well stay up with one or two wins by the end of the season. At the halfway point this season, the points per game ratio for the bottom four or five was truly dire. It remains very poor.

How many wins do you think we need to stay up? I'd say it's now possibly 3, maybe 4, given Burnley's two recent wins.

Pumpkin, pumpkin, pumpkin....try to relax and let me explain... The performance of the bottom cluster of teams heading into Xmas was very poor compared to the usual points per game total needed to stay up. In previous “real life” Premier League seasons, there’s even been a time where 40 points was insufficient to stay up. I have to tell you, sweetie pie, that looks very unlikely this year indeed. There has been a mild reversion to the mean in the last few results (two wins for Burnley, a surprise away win for Cardiff) and the points total needed has also ticked up with Huddersfield falling off a cliff by losing all three recent matches against their competitors, honeypie. That does make two more wins now pretty unlikely given that recent, highly odds against, turn of events in the last few matches. But, honeybun, it doesn’t utterly transform things. Somewhere around 28 or 29 points could well be enough to stay up this year, sweetpea. So, a team with a hatful of draws could well stay up on 6 wins. In the “real life” Premier League, my pumpkin pie, draws are worth one point and wins are worth three. So, sweetie, you do need to look at the number of draws, not just the number of wins. So, cherub, a final tally of W 5 D 15 L 18 could just about, at a pinch, keep a team up, even now. More likely though, you probably now need six wins in Saints’ position. Seven wins in total would be extremely likely to secure survival, all things equal. Just to clarify for you, cherrykins; 1. 2 more wins and a load of draws = now pretty damned unlikely to survive given recent results, but not totally out of the question. 2. 3 more wins and a good number of draws = cutting it fine, but pretty fair chance. 3. 4 or more wins = very probably safe, assuming you pick up some draws. Hope that helps you, honeybun, try not to get too stressed. Stay calm and take deep breaths.

What the f-ing hell is the baby shark song? Asking for a friend...

I'm usually one for "going for it" in the Cups, but given the league position, I'd go with a lot of second string players for this. Although with suspensions, injuries and maybe a few squad players leaving, I'm not sure I know who our second string really are anymore....

Well, sweetpea, I'm not sure if you're aware but Burnley won two on the spin...and Cardiff won away at Leicester, my little honeypie. The combined odds on that happening was about 30/1, so it does make the likely final points position of the table a bit different - but not massively so. Does that make sense, my cute little cherrykins?

Back to back wins for Burnley obviously changes the odds. Even so, three wins likely enough. Even now. You don’t seem able to grasp how actual results alter future odds. But you’re clearly very badly mentally and socially retarded, so I guess we need to make allowances.

Into the bottom 3, but superb point....

Gees...am I alone in thinking we played okay? I mean not great, but 6/10 ish?

Emailed the question (would only two wins be enough for Saints to stay up?) to a mate who mucks around with the stats and methodology on the 538.com predictions website. His answer is “yes, probably, but with a proviso”. If those two wins came against the bottom three (and we drew with the other), then in those circumstances the chances of staying up are higher than 50%. Of course, once you cap the number of predicted wins, the chance of draws in other matches goes up accordingly. So, we’d probably be looking at something like W2 D9 L9. On expected outcomes, he says only three wins - against any opponents - would give Saints a >50% chance of staying up (again, a lot of draws would be the corollary). Only four wins and the % goes to about 75%. So, the answer the opening question could well be “not likely to be enough, but just about possible”. Rather more likely than an earthquake hitting St Mary’s, I’m sure we can all agree.

Oh dear. The cretin can’t even distinguish between a premise and a question. What a total retard.