Doctoroncall

Check out @statsjamie on Twitter. Estimate 54k deaths related to COVID-19 up to 04May.

New test to find COVID 19 carriers within 24 hours - pre infectious state. In what could be a significant breakthrough, project coordinators hope the blood-based test will be able to detect the virus’s presence as early as 24 hours after infection – before people show symptoms and several days before a carrier is considered capable of spreading it to other people. That is also around four days before current tests can detect the virus. The test has emerged from a project set up by the US military’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) aimed at rapid diagnosis of germ or chemical warfare poisoning. It was hurriedly repurposed when the pandemic broke out and the new test is expected to be put forward for emergency use approval (EUA) by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) within a week. “The concept fills a diagnostic gap worldwide,” the head of Darpa’s biological technologies office, Dr Brad Ringeisen, told the Guardian, since it should also fill in testing gaps at later stages of the infection. If given FDA approval, he said, it had the potential to be “absolutely a gamechanger”.

An interesting fact about Spanish flu - it didn’t start in Spain but it was the first to publicise it since they were not involved in the First World War and the papers were not censored (to avoid affecting morale). The first recorded case was in the US.

Loved NE too! Got the soundtrack as well. Never got into the Wire, too much swearing and got a bit slow from what I remember. Enjoyed Mindhunter on Netflix, Fringe (old) on Prime and there is the new series of FND.

It remains unclear if patients have a relapse or reinfection. It could most likely be due to erroneous PCR tests since there has been a ramp up of test kit production and I’d expect limited validation of machine, primers and serology samples. It’s not a clear picture without long term data and anecdotal evidence doesn’t help. With other types of SARS-CoV, immunity has been seen long term and could still neutralise the SARS virus. Animal studies have also shown production of neutralising antibodies, at least for the few weeks of the study. The difficult part is knowing what protein of the virus the immune system responds, triggering the production of antibodies (which neutralise the virus). The antibody test kits need to identify the uniqueness of COVID-19 and not other Coronaviruses to lower the odds of cross reactivity and also be stable enough to mass produce it.

Can you explain your first sentence. Never seen that before regarding transmission rate as a percentage.

The real heroes are those working on the front line of the NHS, sadly some without appropriate PPE as promised. Nineteen dead so far. Really feel for the families that have lost loved ones, through caring for others. There is no point going on about the ERG - no place for it on this thread, besides some posters will only pick up on that and criticise you rather than contribute something useful/interesting.

There is still much that is unknown with this novel virus so could be a number of reasons. Some more worrying that others. Research around the virus has increased exponentially so hopefully we’ll get to know which way is best to keep people safe and tackle the virus.

If anyone is interested in a bit of antibody news... https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/astrazeneca-targets-summer-start-for-covid-19-antibody-trial

i hope they don’t find out Huawei are already part of the 4G network. Absolute cretins.

My weekend rides I’ve reduced down to a couple of hours although fitness level may drop, trying to spread exercise throughout the week - little and often between work. Besides it’s not the same when in a group. As I live in the countryside I don’t get to see many folks anyway.

The Belarus season has kicked off for anyone wanting their football fix!

Philip Green.

It will probably even out by the end of the pandemic. Unless Germans are good at following orders! But it’s not a simple explanation but a list of factors. Germany has done four times the testing we have in the UK. Have been able to clear the hospitals in preparation. Had a younger demographic that caught the virus first. Unlike in Italy, there is currently no widespread postmortem testing for the novel coronavirus in Germany. The RKI (German HA) says those who were not tested for Covid-19 in their lifetime but are suspected to have been infected with the virus “can” be tested after death, but in Germany’s decentralised health system this is not yet a routine practice. This will not amount to that many as the testing and hospitalisation is in place. The RKI’s official mortality figures include both people who have died of the virus as well as those infected and with underlying health problems, where the precise cause of death could not be determined.

Mortality rates for those in ICU: https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b

Basically the US screwed us over the money, atomic bomb and the aviation advantage we had. They played it well.

Combination of things, primarily the demand outstripping supply from older population and increase in population. Also where there were life threatening diseases, medicines have prolonged life. Cost of specialist equipment, increase in types of treatments available, cost of medicines, obesity, diabetes, lawsuits, not regularly modernising, etc etc However, the NHS, is still high up in the efficiency score compared to other nations as far as I know. It comes down to what worth is the NHS to the nation.

As soon as the stadium is separated from the club, it’s another hurdle to overcome. There are a number of EFL clubs that have had this done by the owners, initially to help (ummh) but then turns bad. See Walsall as an example.

Dan Patrick has a different point of view in the US to keep things going (not specifically the Olympics). Really feel for the health workers around the world.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/tom-swarbrick/doctor-nhs-cant-cope-with-coronavirus-stay-home/

Some reporter from PBS asked a number of days ago. He said that was a nasty question and turned on her. Saying it wasn’t him. Surprised you missed it.

It’s been stated by Sir Patrick Vallance that worse case scenario of 80% infected has been used in modelling. Germans have used 70%. Generally, herd immunity is achieved at 60%.

Hoodoo / voodoo medicine man - Aerosmith Die for you - Alice Cooper Saint Etienne - You're in a bad way Haim - all right now. The Who - Boris (the spider)

http://Www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports

The problem/issue isn’t the following of scientific advice but the execution of the plan. Why was Hunt questioning the current policy? He is closer than most to the source of information. It creates confusion. Why is Matt Hancock saying different things (not following herd immunity) in his latest media communications than the PM and advisors? It creates confusion. Why is the head of the BMA stating we don’t have enough medical equipment and not prepared now? We had a lead time of two months. Why are head teachers questioning what is happening as teachers will be on the front line? What safeguards will be place for them. Important stakeholders who are needed to help execute the plan if it is to succeed surely. Better to have them onside/ clear on the plan than causing confusion.