Forester

Nobody, including anyone being paid to play or manage, should be dismissing relegation as a possibility. That isn’t to say it is the most likely outcome, but a summary of reasons why this needs to be seen as a credible risk. Warning, read through the gaps in your fingers: - As has been pointed out, we have no wins in the last six, including defeats against two of the bottom three. And the lack of character on display especially at Oxford and Middlesbrough is a huge concern. So poor form and getting worse. - Having played 26 games, we have just eight wins. Additionally, four of those came in a five game spell when we had an “interim manager”, when elevated levels of energy are often a feature (numerous examples to cite, a recent one being O’Neill at Celtic). And so under a permanent manager, it is four wins in 21. We have 20 remaining fixture. - history suggests that 50 points is needed to avoid relegation. However this year Sheff Wednesday (even ignoring the deduction) look set to accumulate an unusually low total. And equally, it looks like the top six will accumulate less points than recent seasons. And so, therefore, it’s a mathematical likelihood that a higher total than 50 may be needed as points are more evenly distributed. - Ignoring Sheff Wed who are down, every one of the eight clubs trying to catch us are yet to play us a second time. You can spin that as “easier fixture list”, but given we aren’t currently on the drop zone the onus is on others to take points off us. The opportunity for that exists. Two of the sides (Sheff Utd and Norwich) are greatly improved since changing managers and coukd be argued to be in a false position based on table since October. - Most fans would say, and data backs this up, that Saints’ most effective players this season in terms of actual results gained are Armstrong, Azaz and Scienza. That isn’t to say they are in form now, but that when points have been picked up it’s often been down to them. Not one of them has been injured for more than a week. What if that changes? If one or two of them pick up hamstring injuries at some point they will probably miss eight of the 20 games. - the club have said that we should expect a quiet window. And so there is no communicated plan to strengthen the outfield squad. Others will spend and gamble. So we may need to win five and draw four or five of the remaining 20 games just to finish fourth bottom. None of this is scaremongering, it’s just being dispassionate and looking at the situation.

Just checking, but has anyone told you that 80% is greater than 20%?

Shocking and really worrying capitulation. Looked like a proper throw the towel in second half, nobody tracking runners, huge gaps behind wing backs, no desire to close players down. Those of us that have watched Saints for many years will remember when Burley left midway the season having been in charge two years and we would never have been looking down the table. Dodd and Gorman had a horrific spell in interim charge and it needed Pearson to come in and keep us up on last day. Given we are no wins in six and now looking like we lack desire, you look at the Pompey game coming up, and Norwich are greatly improved under Clements. We need to average a point per game from here on to stay up and right now that looks a big ask. Cannot believe I am typing this but have a look at the table and remind yourself that we have to play all the teams chasing us a second time.

McCarthy Jelert, THB, Wood, Welington Bragg, Jander Fellows, Robinson, Scienza Armstrong

If we take a step back from the emotion of yesterday and look at the stats they tell us fundamentally where the gap is between us and serious promotion prospects. Last season the top three were Leeds, Burnley and Sheff Utd, who were super unlucky not to go up and started with points deduction. We are exactly halfway through our season and have scored 37 goals and conceded 33. So on track for plus eight scoring 74 and conceding 66. The finishing goals for and against last season were: Leeds 95 scored, 30 against. Burnley 69 scored, 16 against Sheff Utd 63 scored, 36 against. So while many, me included, think we lack a big centre forward option having gambled on Stewart’s height, the reality (perhaps surprising) is that we are on course to out score both Burnley and Sheff Utd from last season, teams that accumulated massive points totals. However, at just the halfway mark we have ALREADY conceded more than both Leeds and Burnley did IN THE WHOLE SEASON, and are just three short of Sheff Utd full season total. So, what could we do? I think we have been hampered by both Roeslev and Jelert being injured starving us of natural right back, but we could still have played either Edwards, Stephens, Welington or THB as a right back in a back four. Admittedly as the two Danes return to fitness they are better choices. For me, Manning is excellent going forward but poor defensively and never stops a cross coming into our box meaning we face too many 50/50 situations in our penalty area. So Welington is for me the better choice. Back to basics of full backs who stop crosses coming in. Then we look at centre backs and goalkeeper. Our style of play suits Baz but his shots stopping is poor. So McCarthy gets the nod, or perhaps give Long a try as an experience championship keeper. Then there is no evidence, per above, that we are benefiting from three centre backs and so why not go to a back four and pick the best two. Probably Wood and THB. That said, Edwards hasn’t been given any run in the team. By shifting to a back three we have the chance to play Azaz as a number 10 in front of two other midfielders giving us the chance to play three of Armstrong, Scienza, Fellows and Stewart across the front line. There appears little point continuing to do what data tells you isn’t working. So change it.

If you read the post I replied to, it was saying to ignore medical staff advice. Who was manger is irrelevant. Seems common sense to me that Fellows would not be risked for 90 mins in his first start for a few weeks, three days before playing at Birmingham. I drove to Oxford and am as mad at the performance as everyone else. But why do people detach brains failing to see that Fellows was never going to last 90mims today coming back from a groin strain?

I give you Stewart three games in a week row at Derby as evidence, M’Lud

8 hour round trip so am as fed up as everyone else. However trying to be balanced: - 6 wins in 8 is excellent, title winning if replicated from start if season. So let’s keep our frustrations credible. - despite not playing well (see below), had the free kick have been an inch lower or even rebounded off bar with more pace on ball and Armstrong taken his penalty we would have been two nil up at halftime. And then their goal looked handball from our angle but haven’t seen slow motion replay. If just one of those three moments happens in our favour we don’t lose. - however definitely some key aspects that need focus from Eckert and Spors. That is the second time we have lost the third game in a three game week away. I think we need to balance the natural desire to make minimal changes to a winning team with the need for some fresh legs in the three game week. Bragg, Romeu or Charles (when fit) should be utilised, and perhaps a formation change when digging in that sees us have a three man central midfield not two. - we have a choice in goal right now between Baz being excellent on floor for our chosen style of play, but clearly not helping us defensively versus McCarthy who in my opinion is unquestionably better in the air and stopping shots but will hamper our playing out from back. Not great. - having leaned the lessons of relying on Stewart fitness and Downs ability, both being proven mistakes, we need to sign a tall strong target man in January. It’s natural that at certain times in games you are under the pump and need sometimes an outlet where you can play long, get up the field and a striker can hold the ball up. We can’t do that at present and it really costs us.

Old fashioned and unconventional opinion perhaps. But having had prior experience of four wins from four games, perhaps in assessing his capabilities to be a permanent boss we will learn more from how he reacts to this defeat than we have in the first four games? If he goes and collects six points from the Brum and WBA games, arguably in the long run he is a better appointment to make than having known nothing but (very short term) success?

As many others have said, it’s only three games and there is every sense in leaving a decision until after Millwall. But I have been surprised how impressive the uplift is. So far he seems to have two major strengths which aren’t to be under estimated: - he seems capable of motivating and galvanising the dressing room - he has figured out a system and pattern of play that suits the players available. Back three rather than a back five way of playing wing backs, quick transition after breaking the press, and movement and ball on the floor upfront.

Really enjoyed that. Bragg was a strong full debut and we were genuinely impressive first half as a team. I think the style of play Eckert is orchestrating is a good blend of Martin playing out of the back rather than mindless hoofing it up to a midget (a la Still) but with a difference, which is as soon as we have broken the press we then attack with pace. Under Martin we would often recycle back all over again.

I would love to be proved wrong, but I am fearful that Eckert will lack the experience and presence needed when we hit a tough patch. And so right now I would still be looking externally. However I think we are in an intriguing time of the season where, unless we make an appointment over this next week, it is highly likely that Eckert will be in charge for three more games, not one. There will be limited opportunity to prepare anything too radical between the Charlton and Leicester games, and again then between Leicester and Millwall. After that there is a whole week before the next game again so Birmingham, and so assuming it is external you would guess it will be someone in the stand watching Millwall game and then taking training from the Monday. If you accept this assumption, then things get super interesting. Imagine Eckert takes seven, or even nine, points from those three fixtures. It then becomes hard NOT to appoint him from the perspective of Sport Republic. In my opinion this is unlikely, as while I expect QPR and Sheff We’d to both be in bottom half, I think all of Charlton, Leicester and Millwall are play off candidates. But regardless of our individual opinions (and I repeat I think we should go external) you can see a scenario that he almost ends up appointing himself with three more good results in a week!

Totally forgot about him!

As others have pointed out, we don’t have a great record of caretakers then being appointed permanently. Gray, Wigley and Selles were all unsuccessful after promising starts.

For anyone taken in by this, click on MB’s “exclusive” revelations in Jan window😂😂😂

Quite frankly the views of fans about SR are at rock bottom. And there isn’t going to be a ready made popular genius turn up. So I do genuinely get your point, and it’s a shame that some fans will feel it’s a slap in the face, but if SR genuinely believe he is right man for the job they should appoint him. Fans are fickle and a few wins in the noise will go.

Other than erudite comments such as “fuck that skate”, I have yet to hear any compelling argument as to why O’Neil should be excluded. Older fans well remember Horne and Crouch being hugely popular players despite formerly playing for Pompey, and Viafara was pretty popular too. None of whom ever gave less than a shift and in Crouch’s case was player of the season. From personal family knowledge I can assure you that people inside the game look at what is in their professional interests, and if the right opportunity comes up will not give these issues much thought. And to repeat, he grew up as Millwall fan. Like all the other clubs he played at, he recalls good times. So what? Moving away from all this, what is indisputable is that he clocked up two successful season at unfancied Premier League clubs. Bournemouth had just been promoted, shipped nine at Anfield and sacked Parker. He stepped in and guided them to mid table safety. For a newly promoted side that is excellent. Then at Wolves Lopertegi walked out the week before the season started saying squad was inadequate to survive. Again he led them to comfortable mid table finish. Great job. Following season he was sacked midway through. It happens. Strachan, Potch and Koeman were all sacked earlier in their careers, and then subsequently. You can bet if he gets the job he will be desperate to succeed, and the above track records suggests if he can get us up he has much better chance of keeping us up than Martyn and many others do. So if appointed put the childish stuff to one side.

Yes I watched it. It starts with “I grew up as a Millwall fan”

I would be very happy with O’Neil. Hope everyone who says “no skate” didn’t celebrate Crouch being our player of the season 20 years ago…

On the train and relieved to win. Unrealistic to expect champagne football after our awful run, so a scrappy backs to the walls win is fine in my book. Will hopefully lift the mood. Thought we looked more composed with Stephens in the back and there was one moment when he and THB absolutely took strips off Azaz for another lame piece of defending. Don’t think we deserved to win in all honesty but it makes up for Swansea when we certainly did.

Good post. To get automatic promotion, the original goal, it needed two points per game to finish on 92. Usually enough. What you are pointing out, correctly, is that FROM HERE we need to hit the originally required run rate to achieve play offs. No evidence that we will, but shows it’s not a miracle required with the right coaching and right investment in January.

Have results validated his decision?

Gary O’Neil has just withdrawn from the Wolves job. In my opinion he would be an excellent choice. Yes he played for Pompey, but he grew up in London and isn’t a Pompey fan. We have had Crouch and JWP who have become popular players who either played or were raised there, along with Alan Ball who managed them before us (admittedly having played for us). Did a great job at Bournemouth taking over from Parker, then did great job at Wolves taking over just before start of season. Was sacked by Wolves in second season, his first taste of disappointment. But looks like they wanted him back. As Steve Grant said on TSP, it would be high risk as he would not get a honeymoon period with some fans, but for me would be very credible.

This caption had me in tears of laughter!

Nobody has named Vitor Pereira. Did an incredible turnaround job last season when they looked doomed, vastly experienced and until the very end was hugely popular with the fans. I am pretty sure he was being looked at a few years back. Regardless of who we choose, very few have a perfect record of success unless you are appointing from lower leagues inexperienced candidate. Prior to joining us, all of Strachan, Poch and Koeman had been sacked. And all three have subsequently been sacked. Would Ange take a look at us? And no, I don’t mean Rayner…