Frank's cousin

Thats sad ..you know teh lyrics to that song...;-)

Ok lets assume we do get a buyer - got to be positive. What sort of gate do you think we will get if: 1. Start well and stay mid table - to playoff position all season (after -10 is written off after winning 3 and drawing 1 out of first four games) 2. poor start and it we are in and around relegation position all season What would be be an appropriate ticket price? Its interesting as this will give us a ballpark estimation of the revenues xpected and will hpefully heplp us understand what sort of figures are realistic for any bidder interseted in the club both from a purchase price and form an annual investment prioce if we are to see serious progress?

best Mr Benn was teh one with Knight outfit IMHO ofcourse...

When put like that Stu, there is no argument - those are admirable and desirable qualities. Where some of us struggle is that when setting himself up as apotential ITK at saints first time round he did come out with some rather unbelievable stuff - the arab connection, Barry briefcase, David beckhan tie in etc and talk of 100mil + investment over 3 years - that was followed by te bournemouth thing so its quite naturaly to be sceptical at best and more likely very cynical. My suspicion is in yesterdays Echo report about Fry demanding 14 mil - when this is not a quote from Fry but most likely a leek from inside te MJ camp - the only reason I can see for this is the preparation of a good reason for the bid not happening - ' we had a 15 mil deal, but 6 mil of which was following promotions....Fry wanted 14 up front ...his fault etc we tried...' Thats why I am cynical I guess. If MJ get a deal that works good luck to him.

As a football person and coach I dont think many would have a bad thing to say about him, but is he right for a L1 fight ? - I say this now after last years 'experience' - where it was proven that you need more than the pretty midfield pasing in the rough and tumble of the lower leagues. He has handled all this with dignity and that does him credit, but as manager for next season? I dont know, I guess it depends on alot of things...

Thats true, but then we have to be realistic about the size of the relative elements of our fanbase (fanatics v customers) and how this will impact on revenues in L1 if we dont have instant success - and that WILL be considered by any sensible biddde when deciding whether to place a bid or not - So in that respect what last years gate showed is really that we have a hard core support of about 15000 or so. The question is will this be maintained against even lowlier oposition and especially if we struggle to begin with given teh need for further squad reductions? This evaluation anprojection will be the main focus of any plan and WILL obviously have a baring on both the level of the bid made and on the decision to proceed. So had we demonstrated that our core fan base was larger eg we had shown we had 20-24k who would come what may, whovere was in teh boardroom and whatever the results, and thus shown that the expected revenues would be in a different hgher ballpark, we may well have been considered by additional potential bidders...

Makes me wonder about something - Is it possible that these groups have overlapping potential investors? Its not impossible given there cant be too many millionnaires out there willing to part with cash to save saints - could we have a situation where the different groups are trying to get confirmed support form teh same folk based on the strength of their plans, but ith teh money men playing it safe by waiting to see which plan gets Fry's preferred bid status? Or is that over complicating things and a bigger mind feck?

LOL (naturally in a gallows way as you suggest)

Why dont we like to answer or debate these difficult and controvercial questions? What is wrong with asking questtions that challenge our own perceptions of our fanbase - by being so resolute in avoiding them and simply dismissing them does it not suggest 'the truth hurts a little'? Like all clubs relegated there is always a drop off to be expected - ours was increased by protests (a little), the loss of appettite for the crap football and the credit crunch (IMHO) - but what is debated here is that both sides want it there way - Those protesting DID say that the numbers were large and therefore GM is right to ask if this might have impacted on potential investors decisions to make a bid - as he says given the expectations of fans being so high, how would a new owner be perceived this time next season if we have no improvement? Would the fan reaction to the curent situation put them off? Alpine points out rightly that there were some such as myself who felt teh reduction wwas less down to Lowes peressence and more down to the loss of appetite for the crap on display (whether down to Lowe, JP/Wotte etc is immaterial) it was crap, we were struggling and it put folk off - in which The answer to GMs question would be NO as the protest was not big enough to register... Perhaps a more pertinent question would be ' Would potential investors be put off by the fact that gates went down dramatically as fans lost faith in the club being able to achieve any success - because in teh CCC and even more so in L1 the gate revenue is so important and even a few 1000 reduction or increase will have a major baring on being able to deliver a sustainable balance sheet or running at a loss - considering we still have some excessive contracts to honour and no guarantee that anyone will come in for those players, the reduction in gates last season is bound to have an impact on any sensible investor when looking at a viable business plan?

Which if they are serious about saving saints rather thn using it as an ego vehicle, why not get together?

Anyone who believes Fry is not doing his job is either ignorant or naive - His job and obligation is the best deal for the creditors NOT for SFC - I suggest that there are not too many people on here (myself included) who understand the complexities and workings of administration. Secondly dont forget the money men - Even if it were someone with limitless resources they would still be looking to only pay what was necessary not more, and thus the negotiations take time. In our situation we have moneymen backers (speculation here) that dont ahve limitless funds and are perhaps nervous about making that final committment despite what they see as an opportunity - an opportunity that is long term and with further investment required if they are ever to see a return.

To be honest, Id rather have a realist with less cash building us slowly and with measured and pragmatic approaches than a larger group, a bit flash and potentially stretched to the financial limit...

To be honest these accounts are in the public domain for a reason so that those looking o business with them can check they are financially able and stable - its due diligence and its important that we as fans (although we cant do anything about it) DO our due diligence and understand who and what is hapening to our club before we offer blind alliegence - aftrall did so many not simpy folllow wilde despite Gm positing concerns on here that he was unlikely to be able to back up his investor claims? If you are not prepared to listen or look into thi sbefore supporting a new investor/owner, then you cant complain if they dont deliver on their promises. Also anyone worth their salt with everything above board will have no problem at all with fans seeing information that is legally available and in the public domain - If you have bull****ted fans and made promises your bank balance cant back up, why should fans not know this?

This part of the problem - we are in effect only 6mil in debt and the 24 mil is a susatinable 'mortgage' - If investors looked at it that way, rather than this media headline figure that always sound better and more scary, I think we would not be in such a negative outlook right now...

Feck Me I agree with Stu! Seriously thats about right, income loss was probably the biggest factor given the contractual obligations, but there wer a variety of reasons for the stayawyas - sure a dgree of disloyalty and simply it no longer appealing, bt ther is also the cost in this climate which means folk siply cant afford to go to every game - dont forget in the prem, a great deal of those tickets were sold to a more affluent group who liked the idea of PREM football. but it could be argued were fans of football first and saints second - nowt wrong with that but it does mean we have to be realistic about what fanbase to expect and therefore ensure we cut our cloth to match - NOw that we have seen and experienced first hand what many clubs have been through after 27 years of an easy financial time, we need to really readjust our expectations and ambitions so that we are not so easily dissapointed with poor results and slow progress - the revenue streams are just not there to fund the ambitions of fans. GM, I think you do make a reasonable point, but its a bit harsh to fans are putting off investors, sure a and stable fanbase of a well run family club is more appealing to the modern investor, but then that is alos aspirational and an interesting challenge for the right man/group who is serious about making a difference, not just making a packet...

The thing we have to remember is the finance - Both Pinacle and MJ/SG are acting as brokers and funding their proposals through consrtia of various sizes who have pledged support. As it comes to crunch time these investors then need to realise the capital and its often as simple as them then finding it more difficult to liquidize assets to provde these funds. We saw no takers when activly looking BEFORE the current credit problems , so in these times its probably even more difficult both sets of brokers to get the cash - as well intentioned as as hard working as they may be, if the money men dont come up with the readies its not going to happen. The problem as I see it is (and I may be completely wrong here) is I simply dont get why these groups dont look to buy the club and pay off its debt and deal with AVIVA to continue the sustainable mortgage - it would then only cost about 5-6 mil rather than the 14 mil FRy is looking for the whole lot. Now it may well be that currently, based on the existing contracts , and teh forecasted revenue being realistic about the ticket prices AND the attendence, the figures dont add up, so obviously the first thing needed is a reduction in overhead - reduce the squad and then make sure the ticket price is affordable and value for L1. What worries me slightly is that this should be possible for experienced professionals - who would then provide a credible business plan that satisfies AVIVA balanced against a playing squad that will rovide at least enough appeal to get bums on seats if not challenge in the first few years whilst we consolidate. The demands of fans now for simple survival will be very quickly forgotten if following a purchase we are still languishing in the relegation zone next season which is possible given the points deduction. the worry is that we wont see the sudden flood of fans and that revenues will not be able to sustain the contracts if there are no takers for teh higher wage earners who did not exactly set the league on fire last season and perhaps that part of the problem. I am sure everyone who posts on here is determined to go to as many games as they can whatever division - we after all a few hundred obssessives, but what of the masses - will L1 football appeal to enough to make a business plan work even if struggling in league 1?

I would do it this way - If we need 14 mil then 1 share of a total of 10 will cost you 1.4 mil, buy 2 for 2.8 and you get 2 shares etc and two votes - the proviso is that each share owner can nominate one boardmember (with football board exoperience) or themselves (you pay you money you have the choice) as non execs - and then this board employs 3 executive via the normal channels, CEO, Finance, and Operations. Chair is then elected from this board and is given the casting vote. In terms of additional investment - following this purchase the business plan of five years is drawup and it should be based on neutral; return - eg living within L1 revenues - the 10 shares are then in effect p[laced at 50% of tehi value with each share owner or new investor able to do the same again byuy additional shares of now 5% for 1 mil a share - the more you invest the more ownership you have and the quicker these shares are sold (providing 10 mil of money to fund a promotion push or two) the sooner teh businessplan is updated.... simple really.

I suspect bioth Pinnacle andMJ group will have beteen 5-8 backers all contributing 1-1.5 mil.... anyway

My feeling would be that IF Pinnacle were say 2-3 mil short but had about 7 or 8 mil - AND MJ/SG have 8 mil on the table and a further 8 mil subject to the promotions in tehir business plan .....you know where this is going, why not get together and hey presto 16 mil available, buy the whole shebang outright and save the club debt free.... what could possibly stand in teh way of this if they all have saints best interests at heart and all the backers are fully committed?

Think we should just phone up Braclays and tell them that as football fans we were going to move our accounts to them foolowing their succesful sponsorship of teh premierleague - but ahve changed our minds because of their behaviour towards saints.. ;-)

But Phil this was at best £20 x 20,000 - cost of puttinmg it on (£75k) - yield £325K at best a normal weeks revenue and not enough for more than two weeks wages...so all it has done is Reduce Fry's timeframe - Its unlikely that this would have changed 9mil to 14 mil within a space of a week...?

I will state quite catagorically for the record: I would happily shake the hand and support ANYONE/GROUP that succeed in rescuing us. I will be positive from day 1 and NOT be negative and miserable and a naysayer - however I will also reserve the right to: defend them/their actions when given grief for not having money, no ambition etc, or criticise them for wasting money/fan friendly BS etc + reserve the right to offer thoughts and OPINIONS on how they are doing - it is afterall opinion and we are all entitled to one. Do I hope MJ works if there is nothing else? YES Do I believe its a serious bid which has passed certain of Fry's tests? I will take Rons word on this Do I believe there is likely to be a last minute hitch? Sadly yes, because I dont see how having failed at Bournemouth, Marc will have in that short time have found new backers to the tune of 10mil plus - and I mean that with the sadly..... Do I think he is trying his best? YES Do I believe Fry wants 14 mil? NOt sure what to believe, If Fry has not spoken to the Echo (and they would normally quote him) then it must be a leak from the MJ camp (sorry ron) and the cynic in me says that its a preparation for withdrawal when we hear 'we had backing for 15 mil based on promotion, but teh then Fry changed teh goal posts and we needed 14 mil down which we could not do...Fry' fault etc.... I simply dont believe that the administrator would change goalposts at last minute, that is unprofessional and unlikely... Do I hope I am wrong - YES, desperate for humble pie and the club to be saved.

Ron, I fully appreciate the sentiment and I cant argue against the 'willingness' but I cant get over the whole shebang beofore with the 100mil + Plus backers and David Beckham soccer school tie in etc - that may well have been a lofty dream, but it was presented as reality and that is stretching credibilty past the breaking point.

On that first point whilst very true, it could be that Lowe DID appreciate the possible impact but was under the impression that if JP nd Wotte and the kids managed to somehow do well then this would be a bigger factor in maintaining the gate? On the second point - the difficulty seems to be the honesty factor - the FACTS are that fans stayed away and this directly impacted on our revenue - There are two seperate issues really. As you say some stayed away because of Lowe - but I really do think this was the smallest group... many stayed away because we were crap (yes this can be attributed to Lowed decisons if you wish), but many other teams are equally crap and this did not impact on their gate (Norwich), because it became to expensive in te credit crunch - all fair enough, but the reason we are so against acknowledging this is becauise it DOES paint us collectively to teh outsiode football world as smaller that we would like to think we are - and that simply hurts our ego... Am open minded on this and if we see 15000-18000 in League 1 under new owners (equivalent to say 23-25k in teh CCC) then I will take this back, but I think gates will fall again whoever is in charge until season end if we are either in with a playoff push or in a relegation struggle as always happens. You have to remember that Fottball is not like other businesses as we have a loyalty and an emotional investment - its considered by most to be the illogical logic of football supporting that despites how crap your team is you hang in there - its not success or lack of it that dictates alliegence, but the 'in the blood' - and this is the mantra of the vast majority of fans.... Thats why some do question those who 'staywed away because of Lowe' - because if that mantra is true, then it should not have mattered who was in the boardroom as the club is bigger than any one you sits in teh directors box and always should be.... Can you say that there are no fans who simply no longer wanted to watch us because we were a bit crap have not used the Lowe thing as a convenient excuse? I dont think its unreasonable to ask that question. Are fans to blame then, NO of course not because we still do have a choice - the board Is to blame by over estimating the revenues when setting up contracts long term and NOT taking into account the potential loss of revenue should we have no success - but ofcourse had they budgeted accordingly (the slighter wiser more sensibl business decision) it would have been derided by many as 'budgeting for failure' or lacking ambition. Its this fickleness that makes it impossible to always do the 'right thing' by fans?

LOL ;-) DT great (if obvious) headline - now all we need are so deep and seedy revelations that the saints coffers are empty because of the excessive boardroom expenditure in Lockharts clubs all put throuigh as legitimate expenses claims... ;-)