SaintBobby

I really think 13-0 defeats can be discounted. It's more likely that Southampton will be nuked by North Korea.

That's basically untrue. Bookmakers hate outsiders winning. They can get an edge on 1/3 or 6/1 but they loathe 100/1 shots coming in. The reason Saints odds on relegation are so tight is they are able to sell to bedwetting Saints fans at 60/1 or 100/1 when the real odds are about 1,000/1. That's pure gravy for the bookies and they can cover those sort of cretinous bets.

Great poll.I wish the club ran it like this.

Relegation is a serious business. Fair play to you, mate, you were one of the few to stand up and point out the truth. What do you think we should do when you're proven right and the inevitable happens? Cos the rest of us are going to look like utter schmucks. Help me here. Please?

that's 2 minutes of my life I'm not getting back. Anyone who has to start a thread wondering how to contact the Liebherr family is clearly a total, dribbling cretin. They are not a difficult family or company to track down. May I recommend something called "Google"? HTH.

Next step...we want Chelsea to beat Villa. If that happens, then a draw at Sunderland fully confirms our survival, with 40 points. If it doesn't, a win at Sunderland confirms our survival anyway. Even if Villa win and we lose, we are still nearly certain to stay up. (or if you prefer an alternative view...."we're doomed, and will go down unless we get at least 41 points!") Well, you pays ur money and takes your choice....

If we keep the League Cup, I've always liked the idea of including the Scottish league teams (and maybe even the Welsh Premier Division at a pinch) and making it a British Cup. Obviously, no point in having Torquay v Inverness in round 2 - so keep the nations separated until, say, round 5. But Ranger v Newcastle, Celtic v Saints, Hearts v Villa etc would make it a much better cup competition.

Quite right.

Agreed. It is extremely unlikely that Wigan will secure more than 39 points. Their chances of winning both their remaining games is about 22/1. If they don't,, then Saints are safe with 39 points. Even if Wigan get more than 39 points, Norwich might fail to pick up two more points (about 50-50). Even if both Wigan and Norwich get more than 39 points, Newcastle might fail to pick up two more points (again, about 50-50). The chance that the team in 18th will be on more than 39 points is now about 80/1 or 90/1.

So, to be clear, you think Wigan will beat Arsenal on Tuesday? Can you just answer that simple question?

Correct! By way of analogy: - Chance I toss a coin and it comes up heads VERY POSSIBLE - Chance I throw a dice and it gives a number from 3 to 6 PROBABLE - Chance I throw the dice again and it comes up 5 or 6 POSSIBLE - Chance I toss a coin again and it comes up heads again VERY POSSIBLE - Chance I throw a dice again and don't get a 1 or 2 PROBABLE Chance of all these things happening: under 4% (1 in 27 to be accurate....and the chance of Saints relegation is about 1 in 270 or even less)

Oh, come on. It would be a major surprise! Look, it's not impossible but a Wigan win would be very surprising - and would also probably mean Arsenal fail to qualify for the Champions League.

No. Not at all. The pessimists need to believe that Wigan will beat both Arsenal and Villa and that Saints will probably fail to collect a single point from our last two games. The Wigan v Arsenal game is totally irrelevant (to Southampton) if: 1. Wigan then fail to beat Villa OR 2. Saints beat Sunderland OR 3. Saints beat Stoke OR 4. Saints get two draws against Sunderland and Stoke OR 5. Saints get only one more point and Villa lose at home to Chelsea. The chance of at least one of these five things happening is pretty high, I'd say.

So, you think Wigan will win away at Arsenal? That's a necessary condition for 39 points being insufficient. You still think we need 41? (in which case you think Wigan will thrash Arsenal and Villa and we will be thrashed by Stoke and Sunderland)

Given we weren't playing on Tuesday night, would be hard to have celebrated a Sainst victory.

Not sure this counts as bizarre, but it does count as bloody rude. If you want to get to - or leave - your seat for any reason while the game is on, wait for the ball to go dead. I've had people pushing past me as a corner is taken, when the chance of the ball going dead within 5 seconds is pretty high. Stand in the gangway and f***ing wait!

Craig Mackail Smith. Lethal in League One. But probably found his level in Championship. Regret factor: 2/10 Wilfred Zaha The next big thing, pacey winger with tremendous ball control and the ability to actually score. Regret factor: 8/10 Craig Gordon Quality keeper. £9m signing for Sunderland? Not sure if he's even alive anymore. Regret factor: 3/10 James Beattie He's done it before and can do it again. Would be wrong not to have him as a key part of our push in the NPC. Last seen at Accrington Stanley? Regret factor: 0/10

Sure...the gap between 3rd and 4th matters - but nothing like as much as the gap between 4th and 5th matters. Yep, I know English teams have screwed up in the preliminary round before - but it's hardly a disaster to be in it as opposed to the group stages,

Arsenal absolutely have to go for the win v Wigan. A Chelsea win might just have meant that a draw wouldn't be too awful for them. But now, they have to go for 3 points? Anyway, I think that's the reasoning....?

I don't know the ins and outs. But the overall circumstantial evidence seems pretty grim. Maybe Franny was trying it on completely and has accepted 5p. Maybe Nigel Adkins has also been trying it on completely and is also only owed tuppence. Maybe The Sun were totally unreasonable in their demands to have their own photographers take pictures at SMS. Maybe the builders who ceased work at the new academy development were total crooks chancing their arm. Maybe MLT has the emotional maturity of a 6 year old and is just a petulant pr1ck, whatever his previous contribution on the pitch. Maybe Cortese is the most reasonable man on Earth and has just been unlucky to run into a bunch of money-grabbing parasites and tossers. It's possible. But the evidence to the contrary does seem to keep mounting up.

Lol. Not sure about that. But I'm quite keen on making an away win worth 4 points rather than 3.

Actually, I rather like this idea - just glad they didn't apply the rule this season! Maybe also 2 points for being runners-up. And 2 points for winning the League Cup and 1 point for runners-up there. It would certainly liven up the competition a lot.

17th in the Championship, presumably? Having failed to secure 41-43 points this season, we're going down, right?

We're now at 150/1 to be relegated on betfair. Just saying.

You think we'll go down. But you also think it's unlikely that we'll go down. Yep, I see what you're getting at there...