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Form since Bristol Rovers


Scummer
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Ok, since a lot of people seem to think we are a bit rubbish and won't be a good bet for promotion next season, I thought I'd do a bit of analysis. Since the Bristol Rovers home game, the full league table looks like this (formatting is a bit crap I know):

 

Team Pld W D L F A GD Pts

Norwich City 23 18 2 3 51 19 32 56

Colchester United 22 13 5 4 29 22 7 44

Millwall 22 13 5 4 39 24 15 44

Swindon Town 21 13 5 3 43 26 17 44

Huddersfield Town 22 12 6 4 39 20 19 42

Leeds United 22 11 7 4 37 20 17 40

Southampton* 20 11 6 3 39 20 19 39

Charlton Athletic 23 9 10 4 37 27 10 37

Milton Keynes Dons 22 10 2 10 36 37 -1 32

Walsall 22 8 6 8 30 25 5 30

Leyton Orient 22 7 7 8 30 28 2 28

Yeovil Town 23 7 7 9 29 32 -3 28

Carlisle United 22 7 6 9 33 35 -2 27

Tranmere Rovers 22 7 5 10 19 30 -11 26

Brentford 20 6 7 7 22 20 2 25

Brighton & Hove Albion 23 6 7 10 28 34 -6 25

Gillingham 24 5 8 11 18 32 -14 23

Hartlepool United 22 6 5 11 30 39 -9 23

Wycombe Wanderers 23 5 7 11 24 41 -17 22

Exeter City 22 5 6 11 24 33 -9 21

Southend United 22 6 3 13 22 35 -13 21

Bristol Rovers 21 6 2 13 21 38 -17 20

Oldham Athletic 20 4 5 11 14 26 -12 17

Stockport County 21 2 3 16 15 46 -31 9

 

So in all games played since 1st October, we are the 7th best team. If we were to win the 2 games in hand we have over most teams (both of which are at home), we'd be 2nd.

 

Maybe, just maybe, we aren't as bad as some people imagine?

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If, If, if! If we win - always 'IF'

 

IF we beat Wycombe

IF we beat Exeter away

IF the 1st 10 games didn’t count

IF we had a pre-season

IF we could sign Danns

IF we could sign one more player

IF Hammond wasn’t injured

IF Wotton didn’t play

IF we bought on Papa just 10 mins earlier

IF we win our games in hand

IF our fans weren’t damaged by the past

IF we didn’t lose at home to Brighton.

IF we won more than 12 games in 30

IF the skates didn’t play an unregistered player

IF we didn’t let in that late goal(s)

 

Always IF IF IF

 

IF my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle!

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this sort of analysis is very fine but the start point is too selective really.

 

It's the generally accepted point where our season kicked into life. It shows that over the past half a season, we have been showing promotion or playoff form. That's quite a lengthy period from which to draw conclusions

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If, If, if! If we win - always 'IF'

 

IF we beat Wycombe

IF we beat Exeter away

IF the 1st 10 games didn’t count

IF we had a pre-season

IF we could sign Danns

IF we could sign one more player

IF Hammond wasn’t injured

IF Wotton didn’t play

IF we bought on Papa just 10 mins earlier

IF we win our games in hand

IF our fans weren’t damaged by the past

IF we didn’t lose at home to Brighton.

IF we won more than 12 games in 30

IF the skates didn’t play an unregistered player

IF we didn’t let in that late goal(s)

 

Always IF IF IF

 

IF my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle!

 

Well done for totally ignoring the point.

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Our points ratio over this period is just under 2 per game so you should really only add on 4 points for the 2 games in hand which would put us 5th.

 

That's not bad, but I think many people believe we should be doing even better given the resources we have available, relative to most teams in League 1.

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It's the generally accepted point where our season kicked into life. It shows that over the past half a season, we have been showing promotion or playoff form. That's quite a lengthy period from which to draw conclusions

 

True but the results are doped by the October/November period and since mid-December we haven't been so great. If you included the Bristol Rovers result we wouldn't look so good, it's all selective and means absolutely nothing.

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Ok, since a lot of people seem to think we are a bit rubbish and won't be a good bet for promotion next season, I thought I'd do a bit of analysis. Since the Bristol Rovers home game, the full league table looks like this (formatting is a bit crap I know):

 

Team Pld W D L F A GD Pts

Norwich City 23 18 2 3 51 19 32 56

Colchester United 22 13 5 4 29 22 7 44

Millwall 22 13 5 4 39 24 15 44

Swindon Town 21 13 5 3 43 26 17 44

Huddersfield Town 22 12 6 4 39 20 19 42

Leeds United 22 11 7 4 37 20 17 40

Southampton* 20 11 6 3 39 20 19 39

Charlton Athletic 23 9 10 4 37 27 10 37

Milton Keynes Dons 22 10 2 10 36 37 -1 32

Walsall 22 8 6 8 30 25 5 30

Leyton Orient 22 7 7 8 30 28 2 28

Yeovil Town 23 7 7 9 29 32 -3 28

Carlisle United 22 7 6 9 33 35 -2 27

Tranmere Rovers 22 7 5 10 19 30 -11 26

Brentford 20 6 7 7 22 20 2 25

Brighton & Hove Albion 23 6 7 10 28 34 -6 25

Gillingham 24 5 8 11 18 32 -14 23

Hartlepool United 22 6 5 11 30 39 -9 23

Wycombe Wanderers 23 5 7 11 24 41 -17 22

Exeter City 22 5 6 11 24 33 -9 21

Southend United 22 6 3 13 22 35 -13 21

Bristol Rovers 21 6 2 13 21 38 -17 20

Oldham Athletic 20 4 5 11 14 26 -12 17

Stockport County 21 2 3 16 15 46 -31 9

 

So in all games played since 1st October, we are the 7th best team. If we were to win the 2 games in hand we have over most teams (both of which are at home), we'd be 2nd.

 

Maybe, just maybe, we aren't as bad as some people imagine?

Problem is that we are not better than any of the teams above us (except Charlton). We may be 7th best or even 2nd best, but with a 19 point gap this doesn't help. Even if we had had as good a run as Norwich we would still be 7 points behind Huddersfield, admittedly with 2 games in hand. Agreed we haven't been doing bad, but "not bad" is not good enough to get into the play-offs. The remote possibility of achieving this disappeared completely at St James Park Cabbage Patch.

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Problem is that we are not better than any of the teams above us (except Charlton). We may be 7th best or even 2nd best, but with a 19 point gap this doesn't help. Even if we had had as good a run as Norwich we would still be 7 points behind Huddersfield, admittedly with 2 games in hand. Agreed we haven't been doing bad, but "not bad" is not good enough to get into the play-offs. The remote possibility of achieving this disappeared completely at St James Park Cabbage Patch.

 

Yes I don't think we will make the playoffs. I'm already looking towards next season.

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Yes I don't think we will make the playoffs. I'm already looking towards next season.

 

 

 

We'll have to wait and see what that brings, football can be a bit of a lottery and I doubt that much more will be invested in the team as the results don't merit it. Players will leave and others will take their places. Whether they'll be of the same standard or better or worse is a mystery. This season was a watershed, we've thrown away chance after chance to move onwards and upwards and I doubt the owner and his representative will be so generous next time round.There's nothing much coming through either and that needs to be addressed. I really don't think we have the ideal manager but that's just my opinion.

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If, If, if! If we win - always 'IF'

 

IF we beat Wycombe

IF we beat Exeter away

IF the 1st 10 games didn’t count

IF we had a pre-season

IF we could sign Danns

IF we could sign one more player

IF Hammond wasn’t injured

IF Wotton didn’t play

IF we bought on Papa just 10 mins earlier

IF we win our games in hand

IF our fans weren’t damaged by the past

IF we didn’t lose at home to Brighton.

IF we won more than 12 games in 30

IF the skates didn’t play an unregistered player

IF we didn’t let in that late goal(s)

 

Always IF IF IF

 

IF my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle!

 

Oh look, "idiot" has just woken up.

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If, If, if! If we win - always 'IF'

 

IF we beat Wycombe

IF we beat Exeter away

IF the 1st 10 games didn’t count

IF we had a pre-season

IF we could sign Danns

IF we could sign one more player

IF Hammond wasn’t injured

IF Wotton didn’t play

IF we bought on Papa just 10 mins earlier

IF we win our games in hand

IF our fans weren’t damaged by the past

IF we didn’t lose at home to Brighton.

IF we won more than 12 games in 30

IF the skates didn’t play an unregistered player

IF we didn’t let in that late goal(s)

 

Always IF IF IF

 

IF my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle!

 

IF you stopped posting on here a large number of people would be happy.

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Unfortunately, even though this post makes perfect sense from a statistical point of view, it won't make any difference as it doesn't fit in woth 'certain' people's agenda's. I think, considering we had both cups to contend with in that time, this 4 month display has been excellent.

 

It does look like the playoffs are too far from us now, but not due to our form, due to the form of other teams in those positions..

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We'd actually be third I think behind Norwich and Swindon.

 

anyway this sort of analysis is very fine but the start point is too selective really. Only 1 stastistic matters, the result over the 46 game season and there we aren't so great so far.

 

Yes, but we have a very different squad to early season. Then, rock bottom morale and players' performances in early matches were worse than abysmal, and not even of League 2 standard. The whole table reflects wasted matches in the early weeks, playing as we had to do with Lowe's failed legacy of whom only Lallana, Davies and Spiderman are regular starters now (have you forgotten?)

 

So the start point is pertinent, and AP's detractors should reflect more on the general progress. I am more interested in the period between the Rovers match and the end of the season as long term pointers. I'm as impatient as anyone, but I'm enjoying the ride, meanwhile, bumps and all. That is not to say that March, April and May are not key months, and we expect!

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Unfortunately, even though this post makes perfect sense from a statistical point of view, it won't make any difference as it doesn't fit in woth 'certain' people's agenda's. I think, considering we had both cups to contend with in that time, this 4 month display has been excellent.

 

It does look like the playoffs are too far from us now, but not due to our form, due to the form of other teams in those positions..

 

IF Only every team in the league would lose every week! We could then be top. :rolleyes:

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If, If, if! If we win - always 'IF'

 

IF we beat Wycombe

IF we beat Exeter away

IF the 1st 10 games didn’t count

IF we had a pre-season

IF we could sign Danns

IF we could sign one more player

IF Hammond wasn’t injured

IF Wotton didn’t play

IF we bought on Papa just 10 mins earlier

IF we win our games in hand

IF our fans weren’t damaged by the past

IF we didn’t lose at home to Brighton.

IF we won more than 12 games in 30

IF the skates didn’t play an unregistered player

IF we didn’t let in that late goal(s)

 

Always IF IF IF

 

IF my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle!

 

Excellent post! ;)

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I think we should split this forum into 2 seperate boards, Happy Clappers & Moaners. Neither should be allowed to post on eithers board and you can't kop out, by saying you are in neither camp (too rationale). Declare your camp up front and stick to it (if you want to change, you have to write to the admin of the other board begging them to let you in)

 

This way both sides can then read each others board and laugh with their cohorts at either the naive acceptence of mediocrity or the top yourself depression of the other side, depending on your viewpoint.

 

Who's with me?...........I'm a........um......tricky one this.........no rationale half way house allowed, right?.........go on then lump me in with the Happy Clappers!

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Just posted this somewhere else, but I'll add it here as well.

 

In the last 6 games away form guide, Saints are 3rd.

 

In the home form guide we are 2nd.

 

It's only when you add the 2 together that we drop to 6th, as surpirse surprise teams tend to get more points at home and 5 of our last 6 games ave been away.

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