CB Fry

It reckon it will be. It's a massive sample and it's people immediately after they've actually voted. Basically it pis ses all over the other polls in terms of sample size and methodology.

In real terms, it will be. Just discussed it on BBC. Sinn Fein won't turn up, so the Tories have enough. [if exit polls are correct etc] Lib Dems, UKIP, SNP, all irrelevant.

Thanet not declared until 6 am? FFS.

Get over it Paddy Ashdown.

Balls out. There's your story.

One nil to Labour. They just need to park the bus for the next seven hours now.

It's strange - yesterday's Guardian ICM poll talked about a boat load of caveats about shy Tories and higher turnout for Conservative voters etc etc and still had them neck and neck. Having read the article I linked earlier, I trust the exit poll. Unlike Paddy Ashdown. Who will be followed around by a Sun reporter with hat and a knife and fork for the next three days.

He's toast. Gone by lunchtime, he ain't writing no Queen's speech. If the LDs are down to 10 I can see Clegg losing his seat.

Blimey.

99% sure they don't and rightly so.

http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/ This is interesting. Basically, go to bed at 10. The exit poll will nail it.

It's pis sing down in Derbyshire. Rain = Tory gains people. Celebrate/commiserate as appropriate.

Fair enough, although I see no cashing in or hypocrisy personally. If that's your outrage benchmark then you'll have a pretty miniscule pool of MPs to pick from.

Has she accused other MPs of cashing in? Genuinely no idea of what she has said on it. And I'll refer you to my previous post if writing an unquestionably dull book for a liberal independent publisher is "cashing in" to you.

Don't most people write their first books in their spare time? If your outrage radar is going into overdrive over someone writing a book (specifically about their experiences as an MP) then I think you might be just a wee bit delicate for this politics lark, and you'll be unlikely to ever find anyone to vote for. Dennis Skinner might just about do you right.

Agree. Look beyond the Daily Mail hysterical stuff (you know, fu cking idiots saying stuff like "The SNP have got Labour by the balls") and we have a situation which while clearly far from ideal for Labour is not the golden ticket the SNP/SNP fearing betwetters think it is. If he gets the chance I hope Ed gets to write a Queens Speech and dares them to vote it down. I think in reality he will put nods to the SNP cause in there to respect the fact they probably have Lib Dem 2010 level of seats, but it will be a compromise the SNP will need to talk up more than Labour will need to talk down.

It's not a lie. Why on earth would Labour start talking about doing deals with a party that is about to take 30 - odd seats directly from them? Really weird people can't understand that.

Tomorrow (well, Friday) is when the real circus starts.

Totally, totally this.

I'll start him off... Yeah, but [name some random Labour person] did [some other thing] which if UKIP did it it would be all over the papers and no mistake. It's, like, a leftie conspiracy.

That bit where the duck quacked just now was effing brilliant.

Shurlock's nailed it here. Funny I don't remember any threads ever in more than a decade, or any significant discussion about something that happens at hundreds of weddings, gatherings, functions all over the country every week. Delighted to see this cause now seems to be awfully important to Ukippers and I look forward to Lord Duckhunter and the rest of the freedom fighters doing all they can to stamp it out. You fight for them civil liberties sisters - I'm with ya.

Box of frogs.

No we're not. Swansea would very likely need to win their last three in a row, and they have a run in that suggests they won't be doing that.

In the same way The Sun's headlines role in elections got massively overplayed back in the day, our Russell's gesture is as similarly inconsequential in the scheme of things. But I like Russell and I like Labour so go on my son.