Stats to make play offs for info

[NickG]

For those who want a rough idea of what maybe required thought this might help.

It is not intended to be exact, as each season will clearly be different.

 

I have looked at the final league table over last few years - looked at the team in 6th, and looked at what would have been the lowest points they could have had to secure that 6th place.

 

The most common points to reach the play offs, is a total of 69.

 

(Although last year S****horpe would have needed 74)

 

Leaving us 64 (to 69) more points to get

 

We have 34 games left, and so we need about 1.8 (to 2) points per game.

 

No room for bad runs at all.

 

Interestingly tho - our current form, over last 6 games is almost exactly the form we need to achieve that target. (I have only used last 6 games as it is easy current form table on internet)

 

Simply, if we carry on as we have the last 6 games - consistently (- or even improve!), for the rest of the season we should be in the play offs.

 

I will leave you to your opinions on whether we will improve/get worse/or match the last 6 games!

[NickG]

My prediction still is for around 8-12th

 

But if you took the figures above and asked me

Do you think we have peaked over last 6 games or will we continue to improve - think I would say improve - which puts dreams of play offs in back of my mind.

 

I think the odd blip will probably be enough to make us fall short tho.

[Genk]

You say average 2 points a game, so in theory every 6 games you need 3 wins and 3 draws or 4 wins & 2 losses. Will be hard, but looking at it this way I'm starting to think it is achievable now. I think it's going to come down to what happens in January in terms of Trottman & Mellis and one or two possible additions to the squad for when we are hit by injurys.

[NickG]

home wins and away draws! Any away win buys a bit of comfort!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(but any home defeat, chances will be one or two, will be hard to catch up)

[NickG]

bump to keep it above the other one!

 

and goodnight

[Stepgar]

I think we should adopt the approach to go and win every game that we start. We are really buildingand moving forward positively. We should not fear anyone in this league but they should start to be wary of Saints if we contnue with the progress.

[NickG]

Nick have you taken into account that to make the play-offs we have to take an extra 10 points from the opposition? There comes a point when those points that worked against us at the start, work against the opposition. I am struggling to explain it, but any mathematicians on here will know what I am trying to say.

 

true - also we are likely to have better goal difference, had more of a negative impact on other teams goal difference - and would be going into play offs as a team performing at the level of automatic promotion candidates!

[Genk]

For me we should maintain this average in our next 6 games

 

Oldham (A) = Draw

MK Dons (H)= Win

Orient (A)= Win

Brighton (H)= Win

Norwich (H)= Draw/Potential Loss

Hartlepool (A) = Draw

 

So thats 11/12 points in my opinion

[NickG]

makes it look too easy! never works out like that

[NickG]

a very good point,which makes it even more important for us to beat the teams floating around 5-10`th position.

 

 

after the luxury of winning last night was trying to decide who I wanted to drop points today - thought teams around 5-10th are key ones

[NickG]

so we will either fail by a distance or walk it!

[Rod Le Shearer]

after the luxury of winning last night was trying to decide who I wanted to drop points today - thought teams around 5-10th are key ones

 

Agreed.

In fact,I would want the top four sides to win all their remaining games and run away from the rest..as long as they dont win both matches against us of course

[NickG]

trouble is the next group - MK, Bristol, Norwich, Oldham, Millwall are all in form as well

[hamster]

We need to bear in mind that there are only a finite amount of points available to ANY team over the season.

 

Imagine a card game of 24 players, the rules state that to gain promotion a player needs to get ONE ace (let's say 1 ace = 70 points), you however (because that ****** Mawhinney says so) have to get TWO aces - the bastard.

 

You get your first ace which leaves less aces for the everyone to fight over, but ultimately the others are fighting each other and NOT you, as you've actually turned the rules to your advantage. Mathematically the odds are even for all players EXCEPT you, UNTIL you get that first ace, then it is not even level, YOU have an advantage as at the end of the game only 3 other players can possibly have a better hand than you, even if you finish behind those 3 players, you still get promoted in 4th place. Odds are stacked against you to come top, but you have a distinct advantage once you've got that ace re gaining promotion.

 

Of course in the footballing world you are not dealt that ace, you have to nick it from one of the other players. The question remains at what point have we bagged that elusive ace? I would suggest that once we are properly 9 points shy of those play off spots we are there, or at the very least within touching distance.

 

Does that make any sense whatsoever? to anyone?

[Rod Le Shearer]

We need to bear in mind that there are only a finite amount of points available to ANY team over the season.

 

Imagine a card game of 24 players, the rules state that to gain promotion a player needs to get ONE ace (let's say 1 ace = 70 points), you however (because that ****** Mawhinney says so) have to get TWO aces - the bastard.

 

You get your first ace which leaves less aces for the everyone to fight over, but ultimately the others are fighting each other and NOT you, as you've actually turned the rules to your advantage. Mathematically the odds are even for all players EXCEPT you, UNTIL you get that first ace, then it is not even level, YOU have an advantage as at the end of the game only 3 other players can possibly have a better hand than you, even if you finish behind those 3 players, you still get promoted in 4th place. Odds are stacked against you to come top, but you have a distinct advantage once you've got that ace re gaining promotion.

 

Of course in the footballing world you are not dealt that ace, you have to nick it from one of the other players. The question remains at what point have we bagged that elusive ace? I would suggest that once we are properly 9 points shy of those play off spots we are there, or at the very least within touching distance.

 

Does that make any sense whatsoever? to anyone?

 

Well,that doesnt make any sense to me..remember,before a ball was kicked,we were just 10 points shy of a play-off position. so 9 points short of a play-off position at any stage in the season is really just status quo from where we started !

 

This one`s is easier,though not as complicated and elaborative as yours :

 

Lets say we end up on 75 points. That means we would have actually picked 85 points from the opposition.

 

this means that from the total of points dealt out that season,the other teams in the league would have ten point less between them. since the top teams naturally are the ones with the highest percentage of points,this would affect them the most.

 

if those ten point were to be "removed" from teams based on the percentage of total points they got,I`d guess that we`d get an "advantage" of max 1 point in comparision with our neighbours at the table...

 

more than enough under close circumstances,in other words.

[SET]

no ore than 3 further defeats in league is my prediction

[SaintBobby]

68 points from the remaining 34 games should be possible. That's something like Win 21, Draw 5, Lose 8.

 

As the OP points out, we may scrape in with less than that. We definitely want the top two or three teams to run away with it and for it to be very tight for 5th, 6th, 7th.

[Justin C]

My prediction still is for around 8-12th

 

But if you took the figures above and asked me

Do you think we have peaked over last 6 games or will we continue to improve - think I would say improve - which puts dreams of play offs in back of my mind.

 

I think the odd blip will probably be enough to make us fall short tho.

 

I agree with you

[Runaway]

Out of the 34 games remaining - how many are at HOME?

[westofshannonsaint]

i'd be delighted if we fin this season with 70pts & think that is a real target, weather that is enough to get us into the playoffs is another question.

[westofshannonsaint]

Out of the 34 games remaining - how many are at HOME?

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/teams/s/southampton/fixtures/default.stm

get counting, but I would imagine about half, 17(ish)

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

The OP is well aware (but opts to ignore) the inconvenient fact that we are currently running at a 1.25 points per game ave - if that form were to be maintained it would not be the top of the table that need be our concern this season . It remains my view that it's out of order to manipulate the stats to suite a particular point of view or argument .

 

You have to walk before you can run , at this time we find ourselves bottom of the table with more than a quarter of the season already past so lets concentrate on getting out of the relegation zone before we start any (massively premature) play-off dreams .

 

A challenge for any stat hounds out there :

Has any team that held bottom of the table position in October ever gone on to achieve promotion that same season ?

[Steeleye Saint]

We need to bear in mind that there are only a finite amount of points available to ANY team over the season.

 

Imagine a card game of 24 players, the rules state that to gain promotion a player needs to get ONE ace (let's say 1 ace = 70 points), you however (because that ****** Mawhinney says so) have to get TWO aces - the bastard.

 

You get your first ace which leaves less aces for the everyone to fight over, but ultimately the others are fighting each other and NOT you, as you've actually turned the rules to your advantage. Mathematically the odds are even for all players EXCEPT you, UNTIL you get that first ace, then it is not even level, YOU have an advantage as at the end of the game only 3 other players can possibly have a better hand than you, even if you finish behind those 3 players, you still get promoted in 4th place. Odds are stacked against you to come top, but you have a distinct advantage once you've got that ace re gaining promotion.

 

Of course in the footballing world you are not dealt that ace, you have to nick it from one of the other players. The question remains at what point have we bagged that elusive ace? I would suggest that once we are properly 9 points shy of those play off spots we are there, or at the very least within touching distance.

 

Does that make any sense whatsoever? to anyone?

 

No it doesn't although I only the first and last lines! Yawn yawn.:smt100

[hutch]

What CEC says is true, but I prefer to look at the ratio that the present 1st team/squad are achieving.

 

They haven't been here for the whole season.

[NickG]

The OP is well aware (but opts to ignore) the inconvenient fact that we are currently running at a 1.25 points per game ave - if that form were to be maintained it would not be the top of the table that need be our concern this season . It remains my view that it's out of order to manipulate the stats to suite a particular point of view or argument .

 

You have to walk before you can run , at this time we find ourselves bottom of the table with more than a quarter of the season already past so lets concentrate on getting out of the relegation zone before we start any (massively premature) play-off dreams .

 

A challenge for any stat hounds out there :

Has any team that held bottom of the table position in October ever gone on to achieve promotion that same season ?

 

what this poster is aware of, but appears to ignore is that was for a totally different team and set up

 

first game of the season we didn't have;

 

Jaidi or Trotman - two very key defenders and first choices (both also have scored)

 

Hammond - the gritty, CM player /leader we have been lacking for years - a captain by all accounts

 

Lambert -the best CF, bar none, in the division - scoring regularly and great holding forward

 

Papa -added pace, attacking flair - and 4 goals in 3 games

 

Dean Wilkins/ Wally Downes

 

http://www.saintsfc.co.uk/page/Manag...790796,00.html

 

http://www.saintsfc.co.uk/page/Manag...753031,00.html

[Glasgow_Saint]

The last 6 games has seen us produce our best form for some years, yet we are still only the 6th (?) best on form in L1.

 

Because of our very poor start and -10 start we would need to sit at the top of the form table for the remainder of the season and that is unlikely.

 

A poor start has cost us - hopefully that will be our 'bad patch' for the season and we can go on a crazy run.....would be grrrrreat (supported Saints long enough to know however its unlikely!)

[red&white56]

However don't forget that with our "new team" we lost at home to Bristol Rovers, so furhter slip-ups are possible. As as i would love us to get into 6th place I still think it might be too ambitious considering the 10 point penalty and our lack lustre start to the season.

[fatpix2003]

The OP is well aware (but opts to ignore) the inconvenient fact that we are currently running at a 1.25 points per game ave - if that form were to be maintained it would not be the top of the table that need be our concern this season . It remains my view that it's out of order to manipulate the stats to suite a particular point of view or argument .

 

You have to walk before you can run , at this time we find ourselves bottom of the table with more than a quarter of the season already past so lets concentrate on getting out of the relegation zone before we start any (massively premature) play-off dreams .

 

A challenge for any stat hounds out there :

Has any team that held bottom of the table position in October ever gone on to achieve promotion that same season ?

 

I believe that crystal palace were bottom of the championship at Xmas a few years back, just when dowie took over and they went up through the play offs, or was I just imagining that?

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

what this poster is aware of, but appears to ignore is that was for a totally different team and set up

 

first game of the season we didn't have;

 

Jaidi or Trotman - two very key defenders and first choices (both also have scored)

 

Hammond - the gritty, CM player /leader we have been lacking for years - a captain by all accounts

 

Lambert -the best CF, bar none, in the division - scoring regularly and great holding forward

 

Papa -added pace, attacking flair - and 4 goals in 3 games

 

Dean Wilkins/ Wally Downes

 

http://www.saintsfc.co.uk/page/Manag...790796,00.html

 

http://www.saintsfc.co.uk/page/Manag...753031,00.html

 

It seems to be most football clubs are in a constant state of flux most of the time , players and managers come and go and our problems this season (although severe) are far from unique . Some League 1 examples off the top of my head :

 

Colchester Utd - Have recently lost both their manager and team captain but nevertheless in the play-off zone with a 2 PPG average

 

Norwich City - Lost 7-1 to Colchester Utd on the opening day of the season and sack their manager immediately . Residing in the play-off zone (on a 1.6 PPG average)

 

Bristol Rovers - lost their best player and principle goal scorer (R Lambert) after the season had started - did that not give them a problem ? (now on a 2 PPG average)

 

Stockport County - Entered Administration at the same time as SFC and (unlike SFC) have hardly any money to spend . (on a comparable 1 PPG average)

 

The point is whatever difficulties you are labouring under you just have to get on with it - you could well argue that other clubs have made a better fist of that than we have so far .

Edited 11 October, 2009 by CHAPEL END CHARLIE

[Windmill Arm 2]

All this talk of play-offs when we are bottom of League 1 is ******* embarrassing, Some of our fans are cringeworthy. IMO survival will be an achievement, we started on -10 FFS.

[NickG]

I believe that crystal palace were bottom of the championship at Xmas a few years back, just when dowie took over and they went up through the play offs, or was I just imagining that?

 

rings a bell, think you maybe right

[NickG]

All this talk of play-offs when we are bottom of League 1 is ******* embarrassing, Some of our fans are cringeworthy. IMO survival will be an achievement, we started on -10 FFS.

 

just surviving would be embarrassing

[S-Clarke]

just surviving would be embarrassing

 

+1

 

i agree with this and it annoys me when people say ''We just need to survive by 1 point''

 

that would mean we're still loosing with regularity in L1 ffs...we shouldn't be anywhere near the bottom half of the table with this lot.

 

..and we won't be.

[CB Fry]

We need to bear in mind that there are only a finite amount of points available to ANY team over the season.

 

Imagine a card game of 24 players, the rules state that to gain promotion a player needs to get ONE ace (let's say 1 ace = 70 points), you however (because that ****** Mawhinney says so) have to get TWO aces - the bastard.

 

You get your first ace which leaves less aces for the everyone to fight over, but ultimately the others are fighting each other and NOT you, as you've actually turned the rules to your advantage. Mathematically the odds are even for all players EXCEPT you, UNTIL you get that first ace, then it is not even level, YOU have an advantage as at the end of the game only 3 other players can possibly have a better hand than you, even if you finish behind those 3 players, you still get promoted in 4th place. Odds are stacked against you to come top, but you have a distinct advantage once you've got that ace re gaining promotion.

 

Of course in the footballing world you are not dealt that ace, you have to nick it from one of the other players. The question remains at what point have we bagged that elusive ace? I would suggest that once we are properly 9 points shy of those play off spots we are there, or at the very least within touching distance.

 

Does that make any sense whatsoever? to anyone?

 

 

Sorry, no sense.

 

Two points per game from now and we'll finish bare minimum eighth, more than likely sixth.

 

Your "ace" thing only really counts in the last few weeks of the season, or in the title race in Scotland.

Edited 11 October, 2009 by CB Fry

[View From The Top]

All this talk of play-offs when we are bottom of League 1 is ******* embarrassing, Some of our fans are cringeworthy. IMO survival will be an achievement, we started on -10 FFS.

 

Yeah, right.

 

Maybe you should go and watch a game and then revisit that statement.

[Gis]

My concern with whether or not we reach the play-offs is that I agree there is no room for any bad run, and even then we are reliant on other results going for us during the season.

 

But the main worry is that if we don't make the play offs and then go up. I'd be surprised if we kept the likes of Mills, Lallana, Morgan, or even perhaps Lambert - which makes next season much more than a formality as we will be starting with another new team.

[Thedelldays]

+1

 

i agree with this and it annoys me when people say ''We just need to survive by 1 point''

 

that would mean we're still loosing with regularity in L1 ffs...we shouldn't be anywhere near the bottom half of the table with this lot.

 

..and we won't be.

 

Been saying this since day 1 of the season. Wa called unrealistic for doing so a few weeks back

[JustMike]

The OP is well aware (but opts to ignore) the inconvenient fact that we are currently running at a 1.25 points per game ave - if that form were to be maintained it would not be the top of the table that need be our concern this season . It remains my view that it's out of order to manipulate the stats to suite a particular point of view or argument .

 

You have to walk before you can run , at this time we find ourselves bottom of the table with more than a quarter of the season already past so lets concentrate on getting out of the relegation zone before we start any (massively premature) play-off dreams .

 

A challenge for any stat hounds out there :

Has any team that held bottom of the table position in October ever gone on to achieve promotion that same season ?

 

yes i believe Sunderland did it under Roy Keane.

 

And to the rest of your post, using our current season average is unbalanced as the team as changed greatly in that period. Id say wait for the next 6 games to unfold then recalculate. January will be interesting too

[Matthew Le God]

All this talk of play-offs when we are bottom of League 1 is ******* embarrassing, Some of our fans are cringeworthy. IMO survival will be an achievement, we started on -10 FFS.

 

Do you realise that would mean we would only get another 40 or so points from 34 games? We have one of the best squads in the league so that would not be an achievement for the biggest spenders in League one who have the 3rd largest average attendance.

 

8th or 9th is the very minimum I want from Pardew and is very achievable imo

[St Chalet]

Based on 69 points with the 10 point deduction play-off pace would have us currently +10.6 points. It is my Duckworth Lewis method for the league. I would post the graph I have done but can't figure out how to.

 

Given the start we had effectively just 2 wins behind that run-rate, our situation doesn't look so bad.

[Matthew Le God]

I would post the graph I have done but can't figure out how to.

 

Put it on an image share website like photobucket or imageshack and provide a link to it.

[RonManager]

Based on 69 points with the 10 point deduction play-off pace would have us currently +10.6 points. It is my Duckworth Lewis method for the league. I would post the graph I have done but can't figure out how to.

 

Given the start we had effectively just 2 wins behind that run-rate, our situation doesn't look so bad.

 

What are our batting and bowling averages? :smt100

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

yes i believe Sunderland did it under Roy Keane.

 

 

I'd be surprised if Sunderland were still bottom of the table that October .

[johnny c]

All this talk of play-offs when we are bottom of League 1 is ******* embarrassing, Some of our fans are cringeworthy. IMO survival will be an achievement, we started on -10 FFS.

 

How would getting just 10 more points than Tranmere, Wycombe etc be an achievement?

 

We've got a top 6 squad at least, so we should be showing top 6 form from now until the end of the season. If we miss out on the playoffs because of the deduction then so be it.

[NickG]

I believe that crystal palace were bottom of the championship at Xmas a few years back, just when dowie took over and they went up through the play offs, or was I just imagining that?

 

On 21 December 2003, Dowie was appointed manager of Crystal Palace, inheriting a squad with low morale and occupying 19th place in Division One. However, under his leadership, the club went on an impressive run that included 17 wins from 23 games after he took over, until the end of the season, enabling the club to finish in sixth place in Division One, just scraping into the Division One play-off places

[NickG]

I'd be surprised if Sunderland were still bottom of the table that October .

 

Keane joined in August after them losing 4 straight games - they were relegatino zone but were top half by Christmas

[Rasiak-9-]

It definately can be done, but i fear we may well be running out of games already especially after the bad start we had. However if we can get a couple of runs of 5/6 wins on the bounce before Christmas I may start to believe

[SaintBobby]

Keane joined in August after them losing 4 straight games - they were relegatino zone but were top half by Christmas

 

The difference between our position and that of Sunderland/Palace is that we were mathemtaically certain to be bottom for the first few games - and practically certain to be bottom for 7 or 8 games. We were likely to be in the relegation zone for around a dozen games, even if we'd being showing consistent championship-winning form right from the start of the season.

 

In football terms, we're now 11th and in terms of form, we're much better than this.

 

If you're a pessimist, you'll probably think that out form over the next 34 games will be the same as over our first twelve games. This would leave us on the cusp of relegation, with about 58 points, minus 10.

 

But surely even a cynic expects things to improve. Since the start of the season, we've added Lambert, Waigo, Hammond, Trotman, Jaidi and Connelly to the squad. Additionally, Schneiderlin and Lallana seem to have really found their feet. Games 7 - 12 surely give a better indication or our future performances than games 1-6.

[Jack the Saint]

Everybody's forgetting about Leeds who made the play-offs after being dealt a 15 point deduction.

[Matthew Le God]

Everybody's forgetting about Leeds who made the play-offs after being dealt a 15 point deduction.

 

They won their first 6 or 7 games which helped.