Hampshire

[dune]

 

The areas shaded Blue are Tory and won't change, it's the Liberal and Labour seats that are under threat.

 

So which will fall to the Tories?

[benjii]

Didn't the Lib Dems win Winch or Romsey by about 200 votes last time? If so, I would expect that to go Blue.

[ecuk268]

I keep getting election junk from Sandra Gidley and Caroline Nokes (Romsey). They don't seem to realise that I'm not in their constituency. I'm in Southampton Test.

 

Doesn't say much for their organisation if they don't know their constituency boundaries.

 

I pointed it out to a Lib-Dem worker but she insisted that I was wrong.

[dune]

I keep getting election junk from Sandra Gidley and Caroline Nokes (Romsey). They don't seem to realise that I'm not in their constituency. I'm in Southampton Test.

 

Doesn't say much for their organisation if they don't know their constituency boundaries.

 

I pointed it out to a Lib-Dem worker but she insisted that I was wrong.

 

There has been a boundary change, perhaps you have been moved?

[stevegrant]

Didn't the Lib Dems win Winch or Romsey by about 200 votes last time? If so, I would expect that to go Blue.

Yeah, Sandra Gidley won Romsey by 200-odd votes last time. Romsey has, as far as I'm aware, historically been a Tory stronghold so I'd expect them to regain that seat this year.

[dune]

Southampton Itchen

 

The present incumbent, Cabinet Minister John Denham retained the constituency in 2005 with a majority of more than 9,000 over the Conservatives.

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/politics/election_2010/southampton_itchen

 

Southampton Test

 

It is seen as the marginally more affluent of the two constituencies in the city and has had more Tory tradition than Southampton Itchen.

 

It is, however, in Labour hands at the moment. The party registered a majority of just over 7,000 over the Conservatives in 2005, so it is not regarded by the Tories as an impossible seat to win.

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/politics/election_2010/southampton_test/

 

Romsey and Southampton North

 

It covers the attractive Hampshire town and the Tory-leaning Southampton suburb of Bassett. Experts have calculated that had this seat existed at the time of the 2005 general election, the Liberal Democrats would have won it by the narrowest of majorities - 200 votes - over the Conservatives.

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/politics/election_2010/romsey_southampton_north/

 

Eastleigh

 

The Tories will be fighting hard to regain this seat which, at the last election, the Liberal Democrat Chris Huhne held with a majority of only 568 over the Tories.

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/politics/election_2010/eastleigh/

 

Winchester

 

At the last election, the party secured a majority of nearly 7,500 over the Conservatives.

 

The Lib Dems won the seat in 1997 with a majority of two over the Tories.

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/politics/election_2010/winchester_city

 

I predict that Eastleigh and Romsey will definitely go blue, and that Winchester and Southampton Test will go blue by a small majority. Unfortunately Denham will keep his job.

[bridge too far]

Test used to be marginal. My very good friend Bryan Gould was the Labour MP for that constituency once.

 

Itchen used to be the safe Labour seat. My friend Bob Mitchell was Itchen's MP for some time.

[Saintandy666]

I've met Sandra Gidley and she seemed like a thoroughly decent person who was willing to work hard as an MP, and definitely not one of these career MP types. I would vote for her if I could.

[Gingeletiss]

I've met Sandra Gidley and she seemed like a thoroughly decent person who was willing to work hard as an MP, and definitely not one of these career MP types. I would vote for her if I could.

 

Yeh....she's also turned into an 'MP' snob, given some of the reports about her this last month. Another who feels we the tax payer should have to pay a first class ticket for her, so as she can 'work'. Well she won't have to worry in a few weeks as she'll be out of work!

[saint_stevo]

I once campaigned for and was in a promotional DVD for a tory.

 

He lost

[bungle]

Eastleigh is LD hold with massive increase in majority.

[saint_stevo]

yep matey ditched southern parish and went to a safe seat in Bournemouth

[Yeovil Saint]

Eastleigh is LD hold with massive increase in majority.

 

Wow, better tell the Borough Council that they don't need to open any polling stations then.

[dune]

Eastleigh is LD hold with massive increase in majority.

 

We'll see, i think the tory candidate will prove to be popular.

 

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/politics/election_2010/eastleigh/candidates/7984303.Maria_Hutchings__Conservative__Eastleigh/

[Saintandy666]

Yeh....she's also turned into an 'MP' snob, given some of the reports about her this last month. Another who feels we the tax payer should have to pay a first class ticket for her, so as she can 'work'. Well she won't have to worry in a few weeks as she'll be out of work!

 

I do see the point of the first class thing, but it wasn't said in the right way by that Tory MP. To be honest, MPs are underpaid anyway and a solution to all this would be just to pay them double or triple what they earn and just let them get on with the job.

 

The problem with the whole expenses scandal was that MPs were actively encouraged to take these expenses as their pay for what they are expected to do(note that, what they are expected to do) is extremely low. Most did not break any rules, and in my opinion some of the fuss thrown about over it is unjustified. So and so needs a second house, look how much x mp spent on travel , look how much x mp spent overall(most of which goes towards paying staff). Unless you just want only super rich people becoming MPs, people are gonna have to get used to the fact that democracy costs, and that if an MP lives in Scotland or Northern England, or even Southern England, to carry out the hours they are expected to carry out they are going to need a second home in London. The 65k they earn at the moment is not enough to support their whole job and the extra things they must do in order to be able to do their job properly. The way in which the press has leapt on some people who have really done nothing wrong ****es me off.

 

That is not to say that MPs need moats, duck houses or whatever else to do their jobs, it's just a lot of people have been unfairly vilified.

 

Now, that rant is probably totally off topic and irrelevant and I doubt anyone will actually read it, but oh well.

Edited 13 April, 2010 by Saintandy666

[Thorpe-le-Saint]

Oooh dune, I think you'll find that Julian Lewis for New Forest East is going to have a tough time against the Lib Dem candidate this year...that seat will be interesting...

[dune]

Oooh dune, I think you'll find that Julian Lewis for New Forest East is going to have a tough time against the Lib Dem candidate this year...that seat will be interesting...

 

The Tories had a 6,500 majority in 2005. The Lib Dems may be targetting it, but that means nothing. In fact the Lib Dems are imo going to take a battering accross the country in key marginals because voters have the choice of voting Tory and getting rid of Brown or voting Liberal and keeping Brown.

[solentstars]

I've met Sandra Gidley and she seemed like a thoroughly decent person who was willing to work hard as an MP, and definitely not one of these career MP types. I would vote for her if I could.

 

i will vote for her ,have met her loads of time locally not seen the others ever.

not going to vote for nokes the rich tory lady whos being funded by the tory tax avoider in exile whos paying for her campaign.

[Fuengirola Saint]

Oooh dune, I think you'll find that Julian Lewis for New Forest East is going to have a tough time against the Lib Dem candidate this year...that seat will be interesting...

 

I hope so, that was my old constituency,mind you i thought that in 97 and 01 but the cross dresser won again :-(

[benjii]

To be honest, MPs are underpaid anyway and a solution to all this would be just to pay them double or triple what they earn and just let them get on with the job.

 

Correct. They get something like £65k don't they at the moment? Complete pittance considering the demands of the job.

[Saintandy666]

Correct. They get something like £65k don't they at the moment? Complete pittance considering the demands of the job.

 

Yep, it is £64766. Just looked it up.

[trousers]

 

The areas shaded Blue are Tory and won't change, it's the Liberal and Labour seats that are under threat.

 

So which will fall to the Tories?

 

What happened to the rest of Hampshire?

[Saintandy666]

What happened to the rest of Hampshire?

 

It's all tory anyways

[Scummer]

It's all tory anyways

 

Portsmouth North is Labour (although probably won't be in a couple of weeks) and Portsmouth South is Libdem (with a reasonable majority).

[Saintandy666]

Portsmouth North is Labour (although probably won't be in a couple of weeks) and Portsmouth South is Libdem (with a reasonable majority).

 

Oh dear, apparently I just ignored that Portsmouth existed at all

[TopGun]

 

The areas shaded Blue are Tory and won't change, it's the Liberal and Labour seats that are under threat.

 

So which will fall to the Tories?

 

Labour will retain Test and Itchen. Both MPs are respected.

 

Winchester will stay LD. Too much of a mountain for the Tories.

 

Romsey & Southampton North and Eastleigh will clearly fall to the Tories. As I dislike Chris Huhne (a Tory by most views anyway) this is no bad thing!

[TopGun]

Test used to be marginal. My very good friend Bryan Gould was the Labour MP for that constituency once.

 

Itchen used to be the safe Labour seat. My friend Bob Mitchell was Itchen's MP for some time.

 

I too know Bryan Gould, now of course in NZ. I went to school with his son Charles.

[bridge too far]

I too know Bryan Gould, now of course in NZ. I went to school with his son Charles.

 

I think he's an academic there? Lost touch with them when they emigrated. I think his wife was quite ill with cancer at one time.

 

When he got 'de-elected' he lived quite near us in Oxfordshire whilst fronting an ITV / Channel 4 current affairs programme. But we really knew him from our Southampton days.

[Master Bates]

I wouldn't mind either of these two

 

 

 

This one looks nice

 

[pedg]

At least things might change there. Here in Cambridgeshire we have the officially most boring election in prospect.

 

Map now:

99.9% certainly of map post election.

[revolution saint]

The Tories had a 6,500 majority in 2005. The Lib Dems may be targetting it, but that means nothing. In fact the Lib Dems are imo going to take a battering accross the country in key marginals because voters have the choice of voting Tory and getting rid of Brown or voting Liberal and keeping Brown.

 

I hope so, that was my old constituency,mind you i thought that in 97 and 01 but the cross dresser won again :-(

 

New Forest East has been Tory for at least 40 years and will continue to be that until aliens destroy the planet (and even then if the aliens wear a blue rosette then New Forest East will vote for destruction).

 

Unfortunately it's also my consituency.

 

Incidentally has Julian Lewis ditched the beard he appeared with in party literature last election time?

 

Mind you I did agree with him tonight when he had a pop at the Lib Dem candidate calling himself a colonel despite having left the army ten years ago. Ex military types who continue to use their previous job title always come across as pompous and fail to grasp the concept that outside the army their rank means nothing.

[Fuengirola Saint]

New Forest East has been Tory for at least 40 years and will continue to be that until aliens destroy the planet (and even then if the aliens wear a blue rosette then New Forest East will vote for destruction).

 

Unfortunately it's also my consituency.

 

Incidentally has Julian Lewis ditched the beard he appeared with in party literature last election time?

 

I think he´s going for a rather fetching chiffon number this year:-0