Global Warming

[Verbal]

either way..I dont care...

 

Good. does that mean you will now go away?

[Thedelldays]

Good. does that mean you will now go away?

 

probably not

[buctootim]

We've all heard about the arctic Ice caps retreating, but we haven't heard much about the antarctic Ice caps being at record levels...

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/15/AR2010121503757.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/22/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-nasa

http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/puzzle-of-antarctic-ice-melt-solved-0858/

[Sheaf Saint]

I think that the ozone layer just repaired itself without intervention. Try and think out of the box. Population is the real problem. Any ideas?

 

In all likelihood, the more frequent severe weather that is predicted will have an effect on that front. We may see a lot more events such as hurricane Katrina or the floods in the Indus valley in Pakistan - nature's very own version of population control.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/15/AR2010121503757.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/22/east-antarctic-ice-sheet-nasa

http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/puzzle-of-antarctic-ice-melt-solved-0858/

 

I admire you but having just checked Met check; our weather is bizarrely cold. Now the met office forecasted a mild winter (again) do they not have access to this global warming science. Others have said that some have said that this cold spell was to be expected but this was not mainstream. A few years ago, we did have bizarrely warm winters now we do not. As somebody with livestock and a pubowner I have been hit hard. I am particularly bitter because I have just lost the chickens I bred in the summer to a hungry fox. Out of interest I have just found the fox asleep in my henhouse nestbox with the three remaining chickens!

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

In all likelihood, the more frequent severe weather that is predicted will have an effect on that front. We may see a lot more events such as hurricane Katrina or the floods in the Indus valley in Pakistan - nature's very own version of population control.

 

This is absurd. Extreme weather has been around since Noah built his ark.

Edited 19 December, 2010 by Sergei Gotsmanov

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Good. does that mean you will now go away?

 

Verbal jump off your high horse and let us know why the met office never told us to expect this cold spell. Do they not have access to the best science available? Frankly if they do not know then posters on this forum cannot really have a clue.

[doddisalegend]

Verbal jump off your high horse and let us know why the met office never told us to expect this cold spell. Do they not have access to the best science available? Frankly if they do not know then posters on this forum cannot really have a clue.

 

Well they are clearly aware of climate change they have a whole section of their website devoted to it.....

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change

[View From The Top]

Verbal jump off your high horse and let us know why the met office never told us to expect this cold spell. Do they not have access to the best science available? Frankly if they do not know then posters on this forum cannot really have a clue.

 

But surely that's the difference between climate and weather?

 

Whilst I don't buy into "man has caused climate change" routine it would be somewhat daft not to accede to the scientific knowledge base.

 

When people say that the science is wrong it reminds me of all those people who said the science was wrong about smoking, heart transplants, IVF etc.....

 

Is the climate changing? Yes. Is man to blame? Doubt it. Is man making it worse? Probably.

[Verbal]

Verbal jump off your high horse and let us know why the met office never told us to expect this cold spell. Do they not have access to the best science available? Frankly if they do not know then posters on this forum cannot really have a clue.

 

So let me see if I understand you - you're saying that if the met office fail to predict some weather, that invalidates climate change science?

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Well they are clearly aware of climate change they have a whole section of their website devoted to it.....

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change

 

Well why then did we get told that we would have a mild winter? Did they choose to ignore this?

[doddisalegend]

Well why then did we get told that we would have a mild winter? Did they choose to ignore this?

 

I just think they're c rap at predicting the weather to fair.

[Verbal]

Well why then did we get told that we would have a mild winter? Did they choose to ignore this?

 

The met is populated by meteorologists, not atmospheric chemists. They predict and analyse the weather. Not the climate.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

So let me see if I understand you - you're saying ghat if the met office fail to predict some weather, that invalidates climate change science?

 

No I am saying that the met office have access to all the data; more so than the experts on here! Why did they not forecast this weather. I would not have lambed my sheep early if I had known. I also know that our winters have been getting increasingly cold because I have to feed my sheep more and give them water. Do you know more than the met office?

[buctootim]

I admire you but having just checked Met check; our weather is bizarrely cold. Now the met office forecasted a mild winter (again) do they not have access to this global warming science. Others have said that some have said that this cold spell was to be expected but this was not mainstream. A few years ago, we did have bizarrely warm winters now we do not. As somebody with livestock and a pubowner I have been hit hard. I am particularly bitter because I have just lost the chickens I bred in the summer to a hungry fox. Out of interest I have just found the fox asleep in my henhouse nestbox with the three remaining chickens!

 

No agency in the world can predict with any confidence what the weather will be like in any location more than five days ahead as this article explains (sorry to post so many media links but its clearer and easier than typing it out). http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/trillions-of-sums-but-we-cant-predict-a-white-christmas-2160624.html I dont know why the Met office even attempt long range forecasts because they are inevitably usually wrong and it makes people doubt their credibility on other issues, like climate change.

 

Yes Western Europe is having a reasonably cold winter, but much of the southern hemisphere is having record high temperatures. http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/record-warm-spring-in-perth-20101201-18gax.html. Local weather will, at any particular moment in time, be different from local averages. What matters is long term trends across the globe. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/dec/14/hottest-year-environment-review-vidal

Edited 19 December, 2010 by buctootim

[Verbal]

No I am saying that the met office have access to all the data; more so than the experts on here! Why did they not forecast this weather. I would not have lambed my sheep early if I had known. I also know that our winters have been getting increasingly cold because I have to feed my sheep more and give them water. Do you know more than the met office?

 

They have access to meteorological data. You cant predict weather from climate models

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

No agency in the world can predict with any confidence what the weather will be like in any location more than five days ahead as this article explains (sorry to post so many media links but its clearer and easier than typing it out). http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/trillions-of-sums-but-we-cant-predict-a-white-christmas-2160624.html I dont know why the Met office even attempt long range forecasts because they are inevitably usually wrong and it makes people doubt their credibility on other issues, like climate change.

 

Yes Western Europe is having a reasonably cold winter, but much of the southern hemisphere is having record high temperatures. http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/record-warm-spring-in-perth-20101201-18gax.html. Local weather will, at any particular moment in time, be different from local averages. What matters is long term trends across the globe. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/dec/14/hottest-year-environment-review-vidal

 

This is not a reasonably cold winter. If the met office is not qualified to predict long term then they should not express an opinion. The fact they did suggests they do.

[Verbal]

This is not a reasonably cold winter. If the met office is not qualified to predict long term then they should not express an opinion. The fact they did suggests they do.

 

Then your argument is with the met office, not climate change science.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

They have access to meteorological data. You cant predict weather from climate models

 

Why then do they stick their neck out. If I did not have clue then I would keep quiet; if I believed in global warming then I would say; expect a mild winter. I believe they are more qualified than you. If you want to be green then lets sort out population and fish stocks.

[Saint Billy]

Weather isn't climate. If you look at the world as a whole the world is warming. The greenhouse effect and global warming is a fact... we'd all be dead with out it. The area where there is dispute is whether humans are the cause of current rises in temperature.

 

Anyone who denies the world is currently warming is a moron.

 

I will go with my own gut instinct because I am sceptical about the words of so called experts on both sides. I have listened and taken in various prophecies from various so called experts on various different topics and nine times out of ten they tend to end up to be a total load of b o l l i c k s.

 

I have lived through and experienced one of the coldest winters 1962/1963 and one of the hottest summers in 1976.

 

I lived abroad for 6 years and in that time where I lived had the hottest summer in living memory and the coldest winter in living memory.

 

Basically weather patterns change and shift and always will.

 

Man has and will always be a doom merchant. Yes I believe that pollution has not been helpful in any way or form, but since we have only had the ability to monitor ozone levels and melting polar ice flows for such a comparatively short time (20 years?) how can anyone make an accurate diagnosis when you consider that the earth has been here and forever changing for millions of years.

[buctootim]

This is not a reasonably cold winter. If the met office is not qualified to predict long term then they should not express an opinion. The fact they did suggests they do.

 

All kinds of organisations want long range forecasts, people like gas companies, electric utilities etc. Thats why the met office provide them. They are best estimates just as you may plan to get x number of eggs from Y number of chickens but random incidents like the fox make a big dent in your projections.

[Verbal]

Why then do they stick their neck out. If I did not have clue then I would keep quiet; if I believed in global warming then I would say; expect a mild winter. I believe they are more qualified than you. If you want to be green then lets sort out population and fish stocks.

 

This may not have been mentioned before, but weather is not climate. And atmospheric chemistry isn't about 'believing in' something

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Then your argument is with the met office, not climate change science.

 

No; they are at the forefront of climate change science because they measure it.

[Verbal]

No; they are at the forefront of climate change science because they measure it.

 

No. They. Dont.

[buctootim]

Why then do they stick their neck out. If I did not have clue then I would keep quiet; if I believed in global warming then I would say; expect a mild winter. I believe they are more qualified than you. If you want to be green then lets sort out population and fish stocks.

 

I'd guess most people recognise that having six billion people on one planet causes most of the environmental problems. Fish stocks, climate change, deforestation, species extinction - even food poverty wouldn't be such isssues with only 10% of that number on the planet. Easy to say but no easy answer unless you dont mind trampling on everybody's legitimate aspirations for children, good food and living space.

[Whitey Grandad]

I will go with my own gut instinct because I am sceptical about the words of so called experts on both sides. I have listened and taken in various prophecies from various so called experts on various different topics and nine times out of ten they tend to end up to be a total load of b o l l i c k s.

 

I have lived through and experienced one of the coldest winters 1962/1963 and one of the hottest summers in 1976.

 

I lived abroad for 6 years and in that time where I lived had the hottest summer in living memory and the coldest winter in living memory.

 

Basically weather patterns change and shift and always will.

 

Man has and will always be a doom merchant. Yes I believe that pollution has not been helpful in any way or form, but since we have only had the ability to monitor ozone levels and melting polar ice flows for such a comparatively short time (20 years?) how can anyone make an accurate diagnosis when you consider that the earth has been here and forever changing for millions of years.

 

This is my view too.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

All kinds of organisations want long range forecasts, people like gas companies, electric utilities etc. Thats why the met office provide them. They are best estimates just as you may plan to get x number of eggs from Y number of chickens but random incidents like the fox make a big dent in your projections.

 

Yes but you are admitting that they have all the facts - why market a service that you are not qualified to speak on. People should start to ask what is really happening, or is it just nature?

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

No. They. Dont.

 

Then why are they in the business of forecasting long term. Should they just not say 'well this is what will happen next week, for a longer view ask Al Gore.'

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

I'd guess most people recognise that having six billion people on one planet causes most of the environmental problems. Fish stocks, climate change, deforestation, species extinction - even food poverty wouldn't be such isssues with only 10% of that number on the planet. Easy to say but no easy answer unless you dont mind trampling on everybody's legitimate aspirations for children, good food and living space.

 

Well these are our real issues. When you go out for a Big Mac, then spare a thought for those that think that have a beef chow mein with no beef.

[buctootim]

Climate change data is drawn from real recorded happenings at thousands of locations across the globe. Its irrelevant whether one particular place is experiencing below average temperatures at any one moment. Scientists, given a group of 10,000 people can tell you with a very high degree of accuracy how many will take a dump between 3pm and 4pm next Friday. That isnt the same as being able to predict exactly when Maud Williams from number 43 will take a dump.

[Verbal]

Then why are they in the business of forecasting long term. Should they just not say 'well this is what will happen next week, for a longer view ask Al Gore.'

 

Al Gore is a politician. Why ask him? Long range weather is NOT climate science. It's just more weather.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Climate change data is drawn from real recorded happenings at thousands of locations across the globe. Its irrelevant whether one particular place is experiencing below average temperatures at any one moment. Scientists, given a group of 10,000 people can tell you with a very high degree of accuracy how many will take a dump between 3pm and 4pm next Friday. That isnt the same as being able to predict exactly when Maud Williams from number 43 will take a dump.

 

Then why do it?

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Al Gore is a politician. Why ask him? Long range weather is NOT climate science. It's just more weather.

 

Then why does the met office do it? Who else can we turn to - Russell Grant?

[Thedelldays]

Then why does the met office do it? Who else can we turn to - Russell Grant?

 

Bono usually has a few words of wisdom

[buctootim]

Because people pay them to! The accuracy isn't that high but its better than chance, and thats worth having for many companies, councils and other organisations. If you read the long range forecasts closely they are couched in the language of probability - ie something is more likely than not, they are never written in the language of any degree of certainty.

Edited 19 December, 2010 by buctootim

[Verbal]

Then why does the met office do it? Who else can we turn to - Russell Grant?

 

Because more often than not they ARE right. And people pay good money for long range forecasts - insurance cos for example

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

Because more often than not they ARE right. And people pay good money for long range forecasts - insurance cos for example

 

Well I am not sure I subscribe to this; I have said on this forum a while back that we are having increasingly cold winters (because I see it first hand). I think the met office are so blinded by global warming that they just talk about mild winters and barbecue summers. Now I am indifferent on this, I do not believe that you guys know more than the met office (is it fair to say that they must know more?). I am geen thinking and believe that population is far more important - what are we doing about this. Whta can we do about this?

[Verbal]

Well I am not sure I subscribe to this; I have said on this forum a while back that we are having increasingly cold winters (because I see it first hand). I think the met office are so blinded by global warming that they just talk about mild winters and barbecue summers. Now I am indifferent on this, I do not believe that you guys know more than the met office (is it fair to say that they must know more?). I am geen thinking and believe that population is far more important - what are we doing about this. Whta can we do about this?

 

I can't really argue with feelings and impressions and looking out the window. Science doesn't operate like that. Population is important for sure. The two are heavily linked. But atmospheric chemists are merely studying and reporting on the change to the climate not the political imperatives necessary to fix it.

Edited 19 December, 2010 by Verbal

[dune]

I can't really argue with feelings and impressions and looking out the window. Science doesn't operate like that. Population is important for sure. The two are heavily linked. But atmospheric chemists are merely studying and reporting on the change to the climate not the political imperatives necessary to fix it.

 

No they're not - they are making projections, just like the met office make projections for each coming season and usually get it wrong. If scientists can't predict a month ahead, then forgive me for not believing their even longer range predictions.

[GenevaSaint]

No they're not - they are making projections, just like the met office make projections for each coming season and usually get it wrong. If scientists can't predict a month ahead, then forgive me for not believing their even longer range predictions.

 

...

Edited 20 December, 2010 by GenevaSaint
Can't be arsed.

[anothersaintinsouthsea]

No they're not - they are making projections, just like the met office make projections for each coming season and usually get it wrong. If scientists can't predict a month ahead, then forgive me for not believing their even longer range predictions.

 

do you understand that climate and weather are not the same?

[dune]

do you understand that climate and weather are not the same?

 

They are the same thing.

[dune]

[Saint George]

LMAO.....watching the hand wringers back track on here is nothing short of hilarious.....great entertainment chaps, I knew y'all wouldn't let me down...keep it up :)

 

Note the comedy input from the infamous CRU lol .....No wonder they had to start cooking the books a few years later lol

 

Oh how they changed their tune in just 10 short years Monday, 20 March 2000

 

Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

 

Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.

 

The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.

 

Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.

 

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

 

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain's biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. "It was a bit of a first," a spokesperson said.

 

Fen skating, once a popular sport on the fields of East Anglia, now takes place on indoor artificial rinks. Malcolm Robinson, of the Fenland Indoor Speed Skating Club in Peterborough, says they have not skated outside since 1997. "As a boy, I can remember being on ice most winters. Now it's few and far between," he said.

 

Michael Jeacock, a Cambridgeshire local historian, added that a generation was growing up "without experiencing one of the greatest joys and privileges of living in this part of the world - open-air skating".

Warmer winters have significant environmental and economic implications, and a wide range of research indicates that pests and plant diseases, usually killed back by sharp frosts, are likely to flourish. But very little research has been done on the cultural implications of climate change - into the possibility, for example, that our notion of Christmas might have to shift.

 

Professor Jarich Oosten, an anthropologist at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, says that even if we no longer see snow, it will remain culturally important.

 

"We don't really have wolves in Europe any more, but they are still an important part of our culture and everyone knows what they look like," he said.

 

David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.

 

Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said.

 

The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying".

Not any more, it seems.

[dune]

St George, the weather no longer has anything to do with the climate. The climate comrades have yet to explain this, and it certainly goes against the brilliant report you've posted, but i'm sure that we'll get an explanation because they have an answer for everything.

[Thedelldays]

I bet one of the first replies to St Georges post...is abuse

[Deppo]

Saint George is simple.

[dune]

I bet one of the first replies to St Georges post...is abuse

 

Of course it will be. St George posts facts - Climate Comrades hate that.

[badgerx16]

St George, the weather no longer has anything to do with the climate. The climate comrades have yet to explain this, and it certainly goes against the brilliant report you've posted, but i'm sure that we'll get an explanation because they have an answer for everything.

Nobody has yet found the answer to you

[dune]

Nobody has yet found the answer to you

 

Badger can you explain to us why all this cold weather means it's getting warmer despite the CRU citing mild winters as a clear indicator of global warming?