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top by 5pm sat?


paulwantsapint
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If results go our way

bournmouth lose fri night, brighton lose sat & we win we go top on sat

how likely is it to happen?

 

In order for Saints to be top at 5pm on Saturday, what Bournemouth do on Friday night is irrelevant as they have fewer points than Saints. It needs a Saints win and Brighton defeat to happen.

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How likely is it?

 

Well, if we assume probabilities can be derived on bookies odds....

 

Brighton would have to lose to Peterborough. A Posh win is at 7/2 in most places. This implies a 22% probability.

 

Additionally, Saints would have to win against Notts County. That's 1/2 in most bookies. This implies a probability of 67%.

 

The chance of both happening is 22% x 67% = 14.8%

 

(the Bournemouth result is irrelevant btw)

 

Btw, in a major shift on the betting markets, you can now barely get evens on Saints winning the League come May. It's averaging 5/4. Saints to be promoted is running at about 2/5. Alpine and others may be tempted by the 500/1 you can get at bet365 on Saints being relegated ! :-)

 

See oddschecker for more.... http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/winner

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didn't notice that we are at the exact half way stage, Brighton only get there on Sat.

 

Plenty of time, part of me thinks it doesn't matter what happens Sat but it would really set the confidence up and perhaps assist in attracting championship level players if we were top.

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How likely is it?

 

Well, if we assume probabilities can be derived on bookies odds....

 

Brighton would have to lose to Peterborough. A Posh win is at 7/2 in most places. This implies a 22% probability.

 

Additionally, Saints would have to win against Notts County. That's 1/2 in most bookies. This implies a probability of 67%.

 

The chance of both happening is 22% x 67% = 14.8%

 

(the Bournemouth result is irrelevant btw)

 

Btw, in a major shift on the betting markets, you can now barely get evens on Saints winning the League come May. It's averaging 5/4. Saints to be promoted is running at about 2/5. Alpine and others may be tempted by the 500/1 you can get at bet365 on Saints being relegated ! :-)

 

See oddschecker for more.... http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/winner

 

Your maths is terrible, but you're close.

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I see this weekend more as an opportunity to put a bit of daylight between us and the play-off pack.

 

Plenty of time to catch Brighton later.

 

Was just thinking the same. If Bournemouth fail to win tomorrow it gives us the opportunity to create a gap bigger than one defeat. Once we've got that cushion I can see us pulling away quite quickly as knowing they can't be caught even if we lose a game will give the players a further incentive to blow caution to the wind.

 

Not that we're starting to count chickens of course...

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