The Reform Thread

[badgerx16]

3 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

For those worried about what happened at last week’s polls, this is worth reading. For those still popping champagne corks, don’t bother.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/05/reform-minorities-labour-british-public-keir-starmer

Democracy is a bitch;

1) if enough Labour and Tory voters turned out in the local elections and supported their candidates then Reform would not have such a good result. As with the Brexit vote, anybody who didn't vote has no business moaning about the result.

2) People are allowed to vote for whoever they want. If Labour and the Conservatives remain complacent then "Populism" will appeal. Farage taps into something buried deep in the psyche of an island nation, and successive Governments failing, in the public perception, to address immigration, especially after we "got control of our borders", gives Farage an open goal.

[badgerx16]

3 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

Sadly the people who need to watch this won’t.

The people you reference know what they voted for, and are happy to have done so.

[Weston Super Saint]

7 hours ago, sadoldgit said:

I’m glad you don’t live here either, although I think they would welcome you in Dover.

 

 

6 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Why?

Are you not going to answer this or is it that you can't?

[Gloucester Saint]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

Democracy is a bitch;

1) if enough Labour and Tory voters turned out in the local elections and supported their candidates then Reform would not have such a good result. As with the Brexit vote, anybody who didn't vote has no business moaning about the result.

2) People are allowed to vote for whoever they want. If Labour and the Conservatives remain complacent then "Populism" will appeal. Farage taps into something buried deep in the psyche of an island nation, and successive Governments failing, in the public perception, to address immigration, especially after we "got control of our borders", gives Farage an open goal.

Lib Dem voters turned out more, not the maximum result we could’ve had but impressive enough.

There is clearly lots of apathy towards both the main parties. What’s ironic is that the glorious past Reform refer that they want to go back to had the lowest gap between the wealthiest and poorest and highest rates of direct taxation on the very wealthy (ditto America and the pre-1960s era the GOP harps on about). Social surveys showed the British public at their happiest in the 1970s especially in Reform’s key voting groups today.

Funny I’m not hearing anything about that from them or their billionaire, shady, tax-avoiding partners. 

[Gloucester Saint]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

The people you reference know what they voted for, and are happy to have done so.

They are, but those places want the 1970s economic inequality (as well as social attitudes) back. What Farage, Tice and the Candy Brothers want is more like the stark 1980s gulf in income inequalities and living standards which Reform’s new voting areas were very much on the wrong end of. They blamed the Tories but they’ve turned to something far more economically extreme with the red meat of anti-immigration thrown in.

[sadoldgit]

It starts.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-ukraine-flags-farage-b2745470.html#

[sadoldgit]

18 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

The people you reference know what they voted for, and are happy to have done so.

I was thinking more about the people who voted Reform that wouldn’t normally go that far. I agree that there are those who are very happy with their choices.

[badgerx16]

9 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

I was thinking more about the people who voted Reform that wouldn’t normally go that far. I agree that there are those who are very happy with their choices.

Nobody that voted for Reform was forced to.

[tdmickey3]

37 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Nobody that voted for Reform was forced to.

True, they probably did because they like the colour of the rosette or stupidly believe that councils can stop the boats

[badgerx16]

34 minutes ago, tdmickey3 said:

True, they probably did because they like the colour of the rosette or stupidly believe that councils can stop the boats

Beauty fades, dumb is forever.

 

( Judge Judith Sheindlin )

[sadoldgit]

2 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Nobody that voted for Reform was forced to.

No one is saying that they did. My point is, again, that I wonder if all of the people who voted for them knew what, exactly, they were voting for (apart from stopping the boats, which they can’t do anyway).

As for the banning flags from council buildings other than the Union flag and the flag of St. George. I get that they are against diversity and want to be seen as against “woke”, but surely taking down the Ukrainian flags sends the wrong message? Unless Farage doesn’t want to upset Putin of course.

Edited Tuesday at 14:28 by sadoldgit
Added text

[badgerx16]

22 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

No one is saying that they did. My point is, again, that I wonder if all of the people who voted for them knew what, exactly, they were voting for (apart from stopping the boats, which they can’t do anyway).

As for the banning flags from council buildings other than the Union flag and the flag of St. George. I get that they are against diversity and want to be seen as against “woke”, but surely taking down the Ukrainian flags sends the wrong message? Unless Farage doesn’t want to upset Putin of course.

How many people voting for any party "know exactly what they are voting for" ? How many voted Labour at the GE because they wanted to cut the winter fuel allowance ?

As for the flags, the new regime at Lancashire County wanted to stop flying the county flag as it wasn't the Union flag or the cross of St George. Dickheads !!

Edited Tuesday at 14:48 by badgerx16

[sadoldgit]

I think people have a reasonable idea if they look at manifestos but my point is, again, many people just listen to the soundbites and if a certain message resonates with them, like stopping the boats, that is what will ring their bell (even if untrue).

Look at the Brexit vote. A lot of people voted for things that were never remotely likely to happen, or chose to ignore the clear and obvious downsides. According to the feedback, many of the people who voted leave before would now vote remain.

Rupert Lowe made the point that Reform has no clear policies other than on immigration. Does anyone really know what their new councillors are going to do locally I wonder? Protest votes are all well and good, but not so much if they make matters worse. 
This is (was) a strong Tory ward for local government.

The votes went -

Reform 2471 48%
Independent 1047 20%
Tory 859 17%
Labour 459 9%
LibDem 356 7%

From what I hear there wasn’t a great deal of canvassing outside of Ashford. Just mainly leaflet drops. We only had leaflets from the Tories and the Independent candidate. If my neighbours voted to the Refirm candidate, the only firm commitment was about stopping the boats. Something the councillors have no control over.

As you say. Democracy is a bitch.
 

 

 

[badgerx16]

24 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

I think people have a reasonable idea if they look at manifestos but my point is, again, many people just listen to the soundbites and if a certain message resonates with them, like stopping the boats, that is what will ring their bell (even if untrue).

 

Who appointed you to the Thought Police ?

Why is voting based on a SM post that "resonates" any worse than voting Labour or Conservative "because it's what I've always done" ?

[badgerx16]

42 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

Does anyone really know what their new councillors are going to do locally I wonder?

Very little, because they are constrained by financial controls and statutory obligations set by Westminster. Here in Lancashire they say they are prioritising road repairs, but the amount of money they say they will assign to this is woefully inadequate, ( but it is all that the budget will allow ).

[Gloucester Saint]

2 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

How many people voting for any party "know exactly what they are voting for" ? How many voted Labour at the GE because they wanted to cut the winter fuel allowance ?

As for the flags, the new regime at Lancashire County wanted to stop flying the county flag as it wasn't the Union flag or the cross of St George. Dickheads !!

Or the NI increase for SMEs under 10 staff, charities, GPs, universities etc. Bad error not to increase NI but to have it as such a blunt instrument by Reeves.

[egg]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

Who appointed you to the Thought Police ?

Why is voting based on a SM post that "resonates" any worse than voting Labour or Conservative "because it's what I've always done" ?

It's not worse or better, but people are supporting reform because of their noise, and a complete lack of thought as to Reform's thoughts on the NHS, welfare etc. The same people who are up in arms about people who didn't need the winter fuel allowance losing it, now want a party who pretty much want to eliminate the welfare state. Turkeys/Christmas. 

[Gloucester Saint]

7 minutes ago, egg said:

It's not worse or better, but people are supporting reform because of their noise, and a complete lack of thought as to Reform's thoughts on the NHS, welfare etc. The same people who are up in arms about people who didn't need the winter fuel allowance losing it, now want a party who pretty much want to eliminate the welfare state. Turkeys/Christmas. 

Agree with that. Reminds of MAGA and the miners voting for Trump because ‘he’s gonna bring back the mines’. All he’s done is slash their Medicaid when a lot of them have lung/COPD-related conditions. Reform truly are MAGA UK, we even had Jenkyns pledging DOGE UK (she has no ability to bring it about fortunately).

Edited Tuesday at 17:22 by Gloucester Saint

[badgerx16]

59 minutes ago, egg said:

It's not worse or better, but people are supporting reform because of their noise, and a complete lack of thought as to Reform's thoughts on the NHS, welfare etc. The same people who are up in arms about people who didn't need the winter fuel allowance losing it, now want a party who pretty much want to eliminate the welfare state. Turkeys/Christmas. 

In which case our best hope is that 4 years of Reform running things at a local level shows up their incompetence and leads to people deciding they are unsuitable candidates for national Government.

[egg]

Just now, badgerx16 said:

In which case our best hope is that 4 years of Reform running things at a local level shows up their incompetence and leads to people deciding they are unsuitable candidates for national Government.

You would hope, although my feeling is that the masses will dislike Keir, see the Tories as a busted flush, see Lib Dem as a wasted vote, and be so desperate for change, that they'll vote for that lot and only realise the error of their ways when it's too late. 

[rallyboy]

1 hour ago, Gloucester Saint said:

we even had Jenkyns pledging DOGE UK (she has no ability).

corrected.

[whelk]

19 minutes ago, egg said:

You would hope, although my feeling is that the masses will dislike Keir, see the Tories as a busted flush, see Lib Dem as a wasted vote, and be so desperate for change, that they'll vote for that lot and only realise the error of their ways when it's too late. 

Been knee jerk analysis to election results before but many have Reform’s number. Hampshire as a county is comparable to Kent. They have paused elections this year due to devolution plans(I think) so only two seats went to vote in latest election and both went to Lib Dem. Of course Reform are doing well but wouldn’t underestimate how many are massively opposed too. 
Mind I also thought sense would prevail with Trump

[Farmer Saint]

2 minutes ago, whelk said:

Been knee jerk analysis to election results before but many have Reform’s number. Hampshire as a county is comparable to Kent. They have paused elections this year due to devolution plans(I think) so only two seats went to vote in latest election and both went to Lib Dem. Of course Reform are doing well but wouldn’t underestimate how many are massively opposed too. 
Mind I also thought sense would prevail with Trump

It's pretty easy to see why Reform are doing well - our country has a tradition of racism to it's core and they are the party of racism.

[whelk]

1 minute ago, Farmer Saint said:

It's pretty easy to see why Reform are doing well - our country has a tradition of racism to its core and they are the party of racism.

Assume you must be baffled as to why UKIP aren’t running the govt?

or National Front or BNP?

[Farmer Saint]

1 minute ago, whelk said:

Assume you must be baffled as to why UKIP aren’t running the govt?

or National Front or BNP?

None were properly around and relevant when Trump showed how fake news, denials and blatant corruption can allow people to dodge convictions for serious fascist offences. They now think they can get away with it if Reform gets into power. We all know that BNP > UKIP > Reform anyway...

[Gloucester Saint]

16 minutes ago, whelk said:

Been knee jerk analysis to election results before but many have Reform’s number. Hampshire as a county is comparable to Kent. They have paused elections this year due to devolution plans(I think) so only two seats went to vote in latest election and both went to Lib Dem. Of course Reform are doing well but wouldn’t underestimate how many are massively opposed too. 
Mind I also thought sense would prevail with Trump

Some truth in that but Hampshire is quite a bit more affluent than Kent, the south of Kent quite a bit further from Central London than Winchester or even Eastleigh are. Kent has a history like Essex eg Dagenham has of voting UKIP/BNP as well eg Thanet Council, where UKIP imploded within six months after winning control. 

[whelk]

11 minutes ago, Gloucester Saint said:

Some truth in that but Hampshire is quite a bit more affluent than Kent, the south of Kent quite a bit further from Central London than Winchester or even Eastleigh are. Kent has a history like Essex eg Dagenham has of voting UKIP/BNP as well eg Thanet Council, where UKIP imploded within six months after winning control. 

Yeah not fully equivalent and Kent has some real rundown shitholesalthough similar in budget. Hampshire CC has the unitary city councils taken out so no chance Labour can make a dent. Although Kent council has been Tory for as long as I can remember.

Edited Tuesday at 19:14 by whelk
Looked it up and Kent has Medway as unitary authority

[tdmickey3]

13 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

In which case our best hope is that 4 years of Reform running things at a local level shows up their incompetence and leads to people deciding they are unsuitable candidates for national Government.

Lets hope so, but in truth the reform voters get there views from TicTok and are similarly easily led like Trumpites

[sadoldgit]

14 hours ago, Gloucester Saint said:

Some truth in that but Hampshire is quite a bit more affluent than Kent, the south of Kent quite a bit further from Central London than Winchester or even Eastleigh are. Kent has a history like Essex eg Dagenham has of voting UKIP/BNP as well eg Thanet Council, where UKIP imploded within six months after winning control. 

The coastal Kent areas are full of London/cockney accents. The locals call them DFLs (down from London).

[whelk]

1 hour ago, tdmickey3 said:

Lets hope so, but in truth the reform voters get there views from TicTok and are similarly easily led like Trumpites

Your average angry gammon won’t have heard of TikTok 

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, whelk said:

Your average angry gammon won’t have heard of TikTok 

They think it's the thing on the mantle that tells the time.

[trousers]

 

 

[Lord Duckhunter]

17 hours ago, egg said:

that they'll vote for that lot and only realise the error of their ways when it's too late. 

Like 2024 then

Labour got some many votes because the Tories were a shambles. Reform are flying high in the polls because they still are and labour has made a compete and utter dogs breakfast of the past 6 months. 
 

Fucking ridiculous how you lot try to claim high principles drive the voters who agree with you, but those that don’t are idiots or don’t have the same moral fortitude or insight as you. Starmer has the Charisma of a damp rag and is about as exciting as a wet weekend in Romney Marsh. The chancellor is a bull shitter who is out of her depth & most of them are as out of touch with the working man as any Tory government the past 50 years. That’s the reason reform are doing so well in the polls, the complete and utter state of the establishment & the parties of that establishment….The party of Lloyd George have a fucking childish buffoon leading them, yet they’re picking up votes for exactly the same reason. It’s not that suddenly people are interested in their policies or their plans for local government. It’s a 2 party system where people are sick to death of the 2 parties. 

 

[egg]

23 minutes ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

Like 2024 then

Labour got some many votes because the Tories were a shambles. Reform are flying high in the polls because they still are and labour has made a compete and utter dogs breakfast of the past 6 months. 
 

Fucking ridiculous how you lot try to claim high principles drive the voters who agree with you, but those that don’t are idiots or don’t have the same moral fortitude or insight as you. Starmer has the Charisma of a damp rag and is about as exciting as a wet weekend in Romney Marsh. The chancellor is a bull shitter who is out of her depth & most of them are as out of touch with the working man as any Tory government the past 50 years. That’s the reason reform are doing so well in the polls, the complete and utter state of the establishment & the parties of that establishment….The party of Lloyd George have a fucking childish buffoon leading them, yet they’re picking up votes for exactly the same reason. It’s not that suddenly people are interested in their policies or their plans for local government. It’s a 2 party system where people are sick to death of the 2 parties. 

 

I've never voted labour, but I sure as well wouldn't join the massive band of non thinkers and vote reform. 

Charisma FFS. Elections aren't a popularity contest. I couldn't give a monkeys whether I'd like to have a chat down the pub with our PM. If charisma is what drives people's choice on our governance, god help us. 

[hypochondriac]

5 minutes ago, egg said:

I've never voted labour, but I sure as well wouldn't join the massive band of non thinkers and vote reform. 

Charisma FFS. Elections aren't a popularity contest. I couldn't give a monkeys whether I'd like to have a chat down the pub with our PM. If charisma is what drives people's choice on our governance, god help us. 

Elections are 100% a popularity contest. 

[whelk]

2 minutes ago, egg said:

I've never voted labour, but I sure as well wouldn't join the massive band of non thinkers and vote reform. 

Charisma FFS. Elections aren't a popularity contest. I couldn't give a monkeys whether I'd like to have a chat down the pub with our PM. If charisma is what drives people's choice on our governance, god help us. 

People vote selfishly. If you are thick and your life is shit then you will easily go to Reform. That’s the reality and so many low information and don’t take to understand anything. Brexit was laughable asking people with no grasp of economics to vote on something that was so unclear. As if these dimwits will comprehend tax receipts. And yes I know that is patronising.

 

[egg]

10 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

Elections are 100% a popularity contest. 

Popularity of principles and policies, not personalities. People that vote based on the latter not the former are idiots. 

Edited Wednesday at 12:39 by egg

[hypochondriac]

3 minutes ago, whelk said:

People vote selfishly. If you are thick and your life is shit then you will easily go to Reform. That’s the reality and so many low information and don’t take to understand anything. Brexit was laughable asking people with no grasp of economics to vote on something that was so unclear. As if these dimwits will comprehend tax receipts. And yes I know that is patronising.

 

Whereas if you hate people better off than you and want to give people a taste of their own medicine you can hold all the luxury beliefs you like and vote Labour. 

[hypochondriac]

14 minutes ago, egg said:

Popularity of principles and policies, not personalities. People that vote based on the latter not the former are idiots. 

Every single election in my lifetime has been decided based on personalities. 

[egg]

5 minutes ago, hypochondriac said:

Every single election in my lifetime has been decided based on personalities. 

That's bollox. Starmer wasn't voted in on his personality. Farage ain't exactly Prince Charming. 

[hypochondriac]

2 minutes ago, egg said:

That's bollox. Starmer wasn't voted in on his personality. Farage ain't exactly Prince Charming. 

Starmer won because the Tories were wildly unpopular but also because he exudes managerial competence and people wanted predictability and someone steady after the Tory disaster. Not bollocks at all. 

[Gloucester Saint]

4 hours ago, whelk said:

People vote selfishly. If you are thick and your life is shit then you will easily go to Reform. That’s the reality and so many low information and don’t take to understand anything. Brexit was laughable asking people with no grasp of economics to vote on something that was so unclear. As if these dimwits will comprehend tax receipts. And yes I know that is patronising.

 

Further ballast to what you are saying https://www.facebook.com/PokeHQ/posts/reform-uk-voters-were-furious-at-this-analysis-of-people-who-voted-for-nigel-far/1131488005672114/

Plenty of Reform hate (and bad spelling/grammar) in response. 

[Gloucester Saint]

What a dreadful mess the Tories left on asylum - their donors profiting to the tune of £383m at our expense whilst Johnson and Braverman stopped processing cases which built up the enormous backlog. Would have been far bigger again if Rwanda farce had proceeded.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2720n2kkjo

Not a coincidence that some of the largest concentrations are in areas Reform contested heavily/won last week.

Edited Wednesday at 16:59 by Gloucester Saint

[aintforever]

5 hours ago, hypochondriac said:

Starmer won because the Tories were wildly unpopular but also because he exudes managerial competence and people wanted predictability and someone steady after the Tory disaster. Not bollocks at all. 

I dunno, I think it was more to do with Labour in general looking like the more competent party. I expect they could have wheeled out almost anyone as leader and still won. Starmer’s lack of personality probably cost them votes.

[hypochondriac]

37 minutes ago, aintforever said:

I dunno, I think it was more to do with Labour in general looking like the more competent party. I expect they could have wheeled out almost anyone as leader and still won. Starmer’s lack of personality probably cost them votes.

Possibly but I think if they'd had a Boris Johnson type leader they wouldn't have fared very well. His personality reflotheir politics and was a factor in their win for me. 

[Saint86]

12 hours ago, trousers said:

 

 

There seems to have been epic complacency re reform from Labour until now, and to be honest its still continuing.

Johnson beat corbyn in 2019 to secure a majority, he did it by taking the red wall seats. Starmer won this current majority with a similar vote share to corbyn's fairly staggering loss. The core reason for that was because a huge number of those "red/blue" wall seats voted for reform in 2024 - splitting the tory/reform vote, and ensuring Labour had enough to win those seats. But crucially for me, those voters that voted reform were never really Tory voters in the first place, many of them were voting tory for the first time ever when they voted for Johnson, Brexit, and against Labour. But they are meant to be Labour's core voters... and basically they've not gone back to labour.... they've gone to Reform. How many seats did Labour win in 2024 with reform narrowly behind them in 2nd? Reform have gained backing and momentum ever since then, and the recent local elections (and the by-election) demonstrate that they have mobilised even more of labour's core vote. Labour are going to lose a lot of seats to reform in the next GE - The winter fuel allowances, migration, taxing jobs... its all going to come home to roost with respect to those voters.

Edited yesterday at 00:03 by Saint86

[sadoldgit]

So immigrants are going to have to demonstrate an A level understanding of the English language. That will delight a few posters on here but should we export those indigenous Brits who don’t have A level standard English as well?

[Weston Super Saint]

14 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

So immigrants are going to have to demonstrate an A level understanding of the English language. That will delight a few posters on here but should we export those indigenous Brits who don’t have A level standard English as well?

Choices, choices. Where would we send you?

Bahamas for me as I didn't study English at A level.

[whelk]

43 minutes ago, sadoldgit said:

So immigrants are going to have to demonstrate an A level understanding of the English language. That will delight a few posters on here but should we export those indigenous Brits who don’t have A level standard English as well?

I assume you were studying Urdu at night classes to integrate better?

[Lord Duckhunter]

11 hours ago, Saint86 said:

But crucially for me, those voters that voted reform were never really Tory voters in the first place, many of them were voting tory for the first time ever when they voted for Johnson, Brexit, and against Labour. But they are meant to be Labour's core voters... and basically they've not gone back to labour..

I heard someone discussing it the other day. Can’t remember who it was, may have been Glassman who is pretty sensible for a labour figure. Anyway the analysis was,  voters did go back to labour in the red wall, but not because they thought they’d made a mistake and would never vote against labour again, but because The Tories let them down. They are perfectly willing to abandon labour again if they let them down. Labour cannot continue to say “we hear you, we understand your concerns, but you’re wrong so we’re just carrying on as before”. People voted for change in ‘24, and change doesn’t mean Breakfast clubs, youth mobility schemes and a 5 day wait to see a doctor instead of 6….If there isn’t a step change in both legal & illigal immigration, some decent growth in the economy & a fundamental change in NHS performance by the next election, they’re as fucked as the Tories…

Edited yesterday at 11:56 by Lord Duckhunter