Chewy

No, you have to spend more than £100 million to get promoted - this is a team at the lower end of the championship needing basically an entire new team at (to be premier league standard) an average of what, £20m each plus 4 years of wages to commit to? While not having the additional premier league income of what, £75m (additional) per year. So that’s £350 m over 2 years plus 4 year wage commitments for a team. With no guarantee that spend gets you promoted anyway. It’s more costly buying and developing Derby, with no guarantee of success. And the losses you’d have to commit to via wages until you secure promotion are eye-watering when you don’t have premier league income. We struggle with it!! Appreciate saints aren’t guaranteed to stay up either, but the mathematical odds of us staying up v Derby getting promoted are stacked very heavily in our favour, certainly for this season and next.

Sorry but that’s a gibberish analogy. It’s more like buying the rundown house in a much sh1tter area, spending as much as it would have cost to buy the nicer house in the first place, hoping the sh1t area becomes hip and happening, sky rocketing the value; all while having a massively reduced income (you’ve probably given up your job to do it up yourself) so unless your area does turn into the next Notting Hill you’ve blown a fortune while not having the income to afford the costs in the short term. You might get lucky, but chances are you won’t. You’ll be left with an asset worth less than you’ve spent on it in an area that’s still sh1t.

Pompey to lose.

At 1-0 having dominated and as a saints fan of many years I obviously expected a draw or defeat. how wrong - completely composed and in control for the 90+ minutes. Outside of the final third our passing and possession control was outstanding. I mean really, properly good. We do lack a bit of quality in the final third, but with that we’d have scored half a dozen. And the stress and pressure our pressing induces creates enough chances anyway. Im just too young to remember the early 80s, but the current football is as good as I can recall at any stage I think. Maybe I need to let a bit more time pass before calling that but we look very good at the moment. My MOTM went to Adams but there were about 6 strong candidates. And that’s without probably our 2 senior pros being fit. Well done all.

Likewise 🤦🏻

Excellent 😂😂

True. But neither our relegation or Derby’s promotion are at all likely this season, are they. Without messing up the squad, relegation shouldn’t be an issue for us next season either. Apart from the season they loaned half of Chelsea, Derby haven’t been a promotion candidate in years. So I’d suggest rebuilding the entire team might take more than this summer too. Two extra seasons of PL income is worth what? You’re hardly comparing based on similarly likely scenarios, are you.

You COULD get that by investing in a club where you could quadruple its income. IF the club gets promoted. And once you’ve repaid yourself the investment it took.

Missing the point. Saints are a better investment for anyone. It costs less overall, is less risky and returns more cash. It does, however, require more cash up front and doesn’t have a pretty upward graph. Of course, if you can’t afford it then Derby is a perfectly good option with a lovely stadium, excellent history (more trophies than us), a prettier growth chart but a bad accent, a fetish, and less cash. Do you want more cash or less as an investor? And as far as I’m aware the proposed Derby purchaser is an extremely wealthy individual, which is why I made the point - it’s very obviously relevant. You suggested choosing Derby over Southampton was a no brainier. It’s riskier, and likely a more expensive option. It’s potential returns are much riskier and in CASH terms no higher, probably less. whether it is a better ‘investment’ is entirely dependent on what you want to happen to your investment. If you want the highest pile of cash (and can afford the purchase) you’d choose saints. You’re simply likelier to get more. Personally I’d want more cash.But then maybe this fella has so much he doesn’t care, wants to expand a portfolio, have his face on TV, go partying in Derby’s famous night spots, marry a duck. No idea. I do know it’s not a no brainer better investment.

Understand that higher turnover equates to more valuable asset, but if the outlay required from your own pocket is as big or greater than the gain, you’re not any richer, or you are poorer. Of course the product of football can then continue to grow, but then saints would gain the same cash value. Percentage wise it’s not as big, but in cash terms it is. Hence the point about this not being a public investment where growth rates are more important to investors than actual cash. If I was SISU I’d buy Derby. If I was a sheikh I’d buy as good as I could afford without being ripped off. My understanding is this guy is in the second category, if he isn’t then I apologise.

I don’t know; do you? i think we’d both be guessing somewhat. I’m sure MLG Will tell us it’s about potential fan base or something ... 🙄 Im really not trying to be a d1ck about this, or be saints-biased. I just think if I had the money, as a neutral, I’d see saints as a better investment. A key difference could be the lower initial price if the outlay needs to be spread over a longer period of time. At the other end of the scale it he’s dreaming of creating the next Man City it might be easier to ‘accommodate’ FFP rules with Derby? I don’t know - it is clear that any ROI is risky with them being at the lower end of the championship, and definitely at least a season away, and the investment section will be just as large when you factor in required team improvement than with Saints’ higher asking price. Imho

Yes but the investment isn’t just the purchase price, it includes the cost of building a squad good enough to reach the premier league (transfers and wages) and staying there. Debatable what that would be but I’d suggest a Danny Ings alone would account for at least a third of the saving in purchase price (transfer and wages) Derby are also losing money too. Then to get the return you need to be in the premier league to get the higher income (we are, they’re not). It’s notoriously difficult to get out of the championship so the significant outlay isn’t guaranteed a return. The enhanced income is at best 1.5 seasons away, we already look pretty certain to retain the higher income next season. We are therefore virtually certain to have much higher income for 1.5 seasons, and from a corporate risk analysis perspective, likely longer. So in Derby’s favour is a cheap initial price and currently lower outgoings. That need to be increased if improvements on and off the field are expected. In our favour is Premier league income, a premier league squad and a significantly less risky investment. The ‘growth’ charts for improvement look less impressive for Saints, but as this appears to be a private (or at least not public) investment, that’s frankly irrelevant. It’s just hard cash that matters (assuming he’s not a derby fan and personally invested as a supporter). In pure cash and risk terms there is a no-brainer choice and it’s not Derby imho.

Sorry, I am sleep deprived so possibly being more dumb than normal, but why isn’t it? Not trying to be difficult, genuinely curious

While all that maybe true, we are already in the premier league and they aren’t. Irrespective of squad investment, the odds are stacked in favour of a premier league side not getting relegated v a championship side getting promoted. The next obvious difference is we have a premier league squad and they don’t. Strip out the loans in Lampards season, that squad have been nowhere near good enough for years. You’d therefore think it will cost a lot more to upgrade their squad than the difference in the initial purchase price. So it’ll cost a lot more and have a much higher risk of having premier league status. I do think it’s fair to question why Derby would be seen as a better investment than us from a cold, hard business perspective.

Which multiple times are you thinking of?

I read stuff. On t’internet. Like everyone else. You can read, can’t you? I know you struggle to count to two so thought I’d check. I’m not building a water tight case for court. I don’t have to provide a list of references in the appendix. I don’t particularly care because I’m not the buyer or seller so have no clout. I’m just a fan, on a fans forum, expressing an opinion. And quite frankly your view on its validity is as irrelevant as all our opinions on the sale or any other sodding matter. It’d just be a lot less tedious for the rest of us to not have to deal with your pedantic and entirely pointless attempts to take every thread into a debating society class where the sole goal is to prove what a clever debater and user of language you think you are, rather than actually hold a belief of your own with any degree of conviction or genuine feeling. Find it yourself, read it. Form an opinion. Share it, or don’t share it. Agree or disagree. I don’t care. I do know you’re an annoying pedant, though.

Burden of proof? This isn’t a court of law you pretentious, pedantic bore. This is a football forum. A forum where the majority have looked at what this guy and his co-investors actually did at Bourdeaux, and decided they think it and him stinks. you can try and argue your way out of a paper bag by quoting some Plato, a bit of obsolete latin and some case law, all of which might sound wonderful in your head in some fantasy High court. Or you can accept that most of us are perfectly capable of seeing the evidence and forming rational opinions (safe in the knowledge they have no say in it anyway), that they don’t have to justify to you or anyone with a ‘burden of proof’. On a football forum.

Thank you for making the effort to post here, very grateful. And bravo On your English ... it’s better than most of ours, let alone our French!

Voted good, in the context of having little money from a bloated over-paid squad it’s almost a very good. not convinced about Theo, said elsewhere he’d be nice on a sentimental level and that’s it. Like everyone I’m enjoying the warm sentimental glow this morning, but in a few months? For the outlay it’s low-risk I guess so no real complaints. kwp good, the other 2 unknown. If they work out could be a major improvement. Still think we’re missing ‘something’ in the attacking third, still worried about cb (depending on Salisu) and not happy about having 3 well-paid keepers, none of whom are quite good enough. But in the context of our finances I wasn’t expecting everything sorted In one window. Shifting some more of the wages is great and will help future windows address the other gaps. And at least with Ralph and the age of the signings I feel like we’re building something. This window and the last few months of results means I’m the most positive I’ve felt in years so overall pretty happy!

I can see the benefit of a right back who can cover on the left. One sub for both places plus would allow a valery loan which I think would be good. Finding one good enough to cover but not having to start might be a tall order though

Fair enough. I’d have probably agreed up to 24 hours ago 😂

Go on then ... I got Bale and Ox. Who is the possible third? Shaw?? After yesterday???

They don’t need him, they’ve got Lemina ...

Not often you can read so much into a season so soon, but that bottom four already looks like it contains the likeliest relegation candidates imho.

Bad manager, bad owners, awful defence, horrific star-player ... they won’t be back on top of the league for a long time at this rate. 🤣🤣🤣