Dark Munster

Hi @SaintBobby: Here is an example that perhaps makes it clearer. This'll be my last post on this, I don't want to bore other posters to death (that's MLG's job 😉). Suppose there are 4 teams, A, B, C and D who are the only ones who could get relegated, and all four have equal chance of going down. Then they each have a 3 out of 4 = 75% chance of going down (3 relegation spots for 4 teams). Suppose we all hate teams A, B and C and want all three of them to go down. What are the chances of A, B and C all going down? By your calculation it's 75% X 75% X 75% = 42%. But that's incorrect, the odds of all three going down is the same as the odds of team D surviving, which is 25%.

If they were independent events that's true. But if one team is destined to go down that would affect the odds of survival for the others (they would all improve). For example, Newcastle currently at 36% is calculated based on all other possibilities for who the other 2 relegated teams could be. But, for example, if we have a crystal ball and know Saints are to more or less lose all our remaining matches and go down, then Newcastle would only have to finish above 2 crap teams rather than 3, so their odds of survival would go up. That's a silly extreme example, but hopefully gives an idea of what I'm babbling on about. It reminds me of the 2 goats and car behind 3 doors game: knowing a door where one goat is affects the odds as opposed to not knowing.

Or his contract is soon to expire and he's doing a Saganowski?

Actually probably less than 2% all three will be. Because if one goes down the odds of survival for the other two go up.

Did Bednarek score the first goal?

Speak for yourself, you miserable old git. I'm not!

You never know how they develop. The fear is having another Lamina, Hoedt, Boufal, Osvaldo, The Donkey, and all the other crap that we couldn't get rid of, except at a great loss.

Don't forget 8th place and runners up in the Cup is a sackable offense!

Burnley have games in hand and are no mugs, and Weghorst looks like a very good replacement for Wood. I think they'll be fine. I think Brentford have shot their wad and will join Norwich and Watford.

Unlikely but not impossible, they do have some world class players. They certainly have a better chance than Sporting!

Yes, that's the only way an 8th placed team qualifies for Europe! As I mentioned before, if 5 teams qualify for CL then the PL simply loses a non-CL spot to keep the total number of European places the same. What would be quite amusing if West Ham were to win Euro League, Man Utd the CL, and both miss out on the top 4 place. Then those 2 would qualify for the CL, but only the top 3 would join them (6 teams in the CL is not allowed). The 4th placed team would be SOL and drop into the Euro League. If the victims were Spurs that would be highly amusing.

Guilty m'lud, I was being rather naughty. I ignored his wild celebration just before.

Cheers @the boy from saints! Minsk would be proud.

The only thing worse than having VAR is not having VAR.

Armando celebrating Long's goal .... #OneOfUs

18 points from 5 matches would be an incredible return. The PL may investigate though ....

If they get Haaland, Liverpool, Chelsea and co. will be shitting themselves.

With one notable exception 🤣

It is possible for 5 English teams to qualify for the CL, for example West Ham win the Europa league and don't finish in the top 4, then they qualify for the CL along with the top 4. Or Man Utd win the CL (ha ha!) and finish 5th. Spain had 5 teams in the CL this season. But if so, it doesn't give an extra Euro spot down the food chain: the total number of European spots stays the same (basically a non-CL spot becomes a CL one).

Probably not, he is a she!

An absolute nightmare. If we're in the semi-final with Chelsea waiting in the final, let's pray we lose to avoid that happening.

I'd be very upset if he was chosen ahead of Eric Black.

And one of the home matches was against arguably the best team in Europe, ending their 12 game winning streak!

Absolutely. It was the foundation for many of our great escapes in the 90s. It also got Gray the job after end of season wins against on-the-beach Arsenal and Man Utd.

If Burnley go down maybe Weghorst is worth a shout? A goal in every other game for Wolfsburg, big and strong with an eye for goal. Not young (29) but maybe worth a good 3 or 4 years.