brightspark Posted 13 October, 2009 Share Posted 13 October, 2009 Got my maths brain on this morning and have been studying the league table... multiplied the points totals by teams currently in midtable and around 6th spot by 1.5 and 2, to come up with a projected total of points needed to be in midtable and in the play offs by 18 games played and also by 24 games played. By 18 games, to be in midtable, we will have to be on 21 points approximately Therefore, we need 16 points from 18, in our next 6 games: (Oldham (a), MK Dons (h), Orient (a), Brighton (h), Norwich (h), Hartlepool (a).) If we can go on this strong run of form, 5 wins and a draw from these games, we will then be in a very good position to push for the play offs IMO. Optimistic, but we are in League One, and we have a killer squad now, so we shouldn't be underestimating at all. By 24 games, to be in the play offs, we will have to be on 39 points approximately 34 points in 12 games obviously isn't going to happen (11 wins, 1 draw) - but for me it also shows how close it actually is. CAN WE DO IT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 13 October, 2009 Share Posted 13 October, 2009 By 24 games, to be in the play offs, we will have to be on 39 points approximately We don't need to be in the play offs after 24 games. We need to be in the play offs after 46 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Bones Posted 13 October, 2009 Share Posted 13 October, 2009 Hmm I'm still going to stay on the cautious side. I think a mid table finish would be adequate after the points deduction and the ownership fiasco during the pre-season. Give us two more transfer windows and I think we will hit the ground running hard come next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 Got my maths brain on this morning and have been studying the league table... multiplied the points totals by teams currently in midtable and around 6th spot by 1.5 and 2, to come up with a projected total of points needed to be in midtable and in the play offs by 18 games played and also by 24 games played. By 18 games, to be in midtable, we will have to be on 21 points approximately Therefore, we need 16 points from 18, in our next 6 games: (Oldham (a), MK Dons (h), Orient (a), Brighton (h), Norwich (h), Hartlepool (a).) If we can go on this strong run of form, 5 wins and a draw from these games, we will then be in a very good position to push for the play offs IMO. Optimistic, but we are in League One, and we have a killer squad now, so we shouldn't be underestimating at all. By 24 games, to be in the play offs, we will have to be on 39 points approximately 34 points in 12 games obviously isn't going to happen (11 wins, 1 draw) - but for me it also shows how close it actually is. CAN WE DO IT? Interesting, but am not sure this stacks up. For Saints, we need to parcel out our "football" points and our "actual" points, due to the penalty. (so, at present, we have 15 of the former and 5 of the later). If we are on 39 points after 24 games, we will be CRUISING to the play-offs and will probably be odds-on for automatic promotion (even if we're only, say 9th in the actual league table). That's because we will have accrued 49 "football" points in 1/2 a season -and if we achieved that in the second half of the season, we'd end up on around 86-88 points. The best way to factor in our 10 point penalty, is to see it as something that needs to slowly erased over time rather than suddenly made-up in one quantum leap forward. In effect, we're going to have to do - on average - 0.2 points a game better than if we didn't have the penalty. The best way of charting our "real" progress is to take out the 10 point penalty which is (understandably) applied before a ball is kicked and just knock off 0.2 points from our total for every game we play (that will come out as a 9.2 deduction over the season - but that's fine, because we're very likely to have a superior goal difference to our closest competitors which is worth the other 0.8 of a point) In real terms, we are therefore on 12.4 points after 12 games. If replicated over the rest of the season, that leaves us hovering on the brink of relegation. But I think it's fair to say that games 7-12 are probably a better indicator of our future performances than games 1-6. We averaged 0.67 points from games 1-6, but have averaged 1.83 points from games 7-12. If we can keep up this average of 1.83, we'll end the season on about 67 points. Either in the play-offs, or just outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRobbie Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 I hate maths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the saint in winchester Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 As an accountant, I'd be the first to say you can use numbers to support or deny anything. I'd rather we just support the team and hope we collect as many points from now til xmas. Only then will i start exponential theory to predict where we may finish the season. If you want to get your calculator out at 12:07 in the morning, then do so, but its not for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krissyboy31 Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 As an accountant, I'd be the first to say you can use numbers to support or deny anything. I'd rather we just support the team and hope we collect as many points from now til xmas. Only then will i start exponential theory to predict where we may finish the season. If you want to get your calculator out at 12:07 in the morning, then do so, but its not for me. Yes but it was 09:07 in Brisbane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david in sweden Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 I hate maths. it's not maths, Robbie ...it's statistics, lots more fun ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notnowcato Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 Given all that has gone before us, I think an excellent season would see us within 10 points of the play off positions. As a happy clappy uber uber fan, there is a part of me that thinks we will finish in the play offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints-cris Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 We can get in the playoffs.. but i will eat my own face if we get 5 wins and a draw in our next 6 games, as much as id like it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notnowcato Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 We can get in the playoffs.. but i will eat my own face if we get 5 wins and a draw in our next 6 games, as much as id like it to happen. Could we have something a bit more realistic?? Such as your hat? :smt041 :smt041 :smt041 :smt041 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eklund86 Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 Iv just done my predictions for the next 10 games being fairly neutral and feel we can get 21 points which is a average of 2.1 per game so if we need a average of 1.83 to be possibly in the playoffs then i think we have a outside chance. Obviously though we just have to wait and see and not get carried away. Oldham W MK Dons D Leyton Orient W Brighton W Norwich D Hartlepool D Wycombe W Walsall W Tranmere W Leeds L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stardustonmyfeet Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 We'd need auto promotion form to get into the playoffs this year. I'd be satisfied with finishing in the top ten. A couple of defeats or draws over the next month and we'll all be worrying about getting out of the relegation places, which is where we still are. Small steps at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highfield Saint Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 If we can keep up this average of 1.83, we'll end the season on about 67 points. Either in the play-offs, or just outside. Interesting as this is pretty much where the spread bets have us finishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krissyboy31 Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 I still think 72 points (82 for us) will be required for the playoffs. A record of something like 23 wins, 13 draws and 9 defeats. ATM we have 3, 6 and 3, so that's 20 wins and 7 draws out of our remaining 34 matches. Not impossible but improbable I would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintDonkey Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 Okay if we're doing the math thing... Fudging the data slightly to make Gillingham bottom half in the last 6 games we've played 3 teams in the bottom half of the table and averaged 2.33 points per game and 3 teams in the top half averaging 1.33 points per game. In our next 6 games we play 3 top half teams and 3 bottom half so I would expect us to gain 11 points. Some way short of the 16 you say we need. However we've played more games against top half teams (especially since I'm counting Gillingham as bottom half just to make the maths easier) so we've got 20 games left against bottom half teams and just 14 against top half teams. Keep up this form and we'll get another 65 points by the end of the season. 68 points in total just missing out on the play offs but without the -10 points we'd be banging on the automatic promotion places. My glass is half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 think next 3 games are going to show how confident this team is if we get 7+ points I can really see us going on to have an amazing season 4-6 will be decent season -trying to see if play offs possible less than 4 - mid table steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panda Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 For me its forget the stats and think about steps. We have positive points now, we could get of the bottom of the table this weekend, then its on to getting out of the relegation zone bu the end of November and so on. If football was just about stats then it would take the excitement and unpredictability away. Promotion? Let's think about that once we have passed a few more milestones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 its thinking of possibilities and successes that make it exciting. If we were told now we were finishing 10th it would be boring. We all would be able to guess a range of finishes - and I expect there would be quite a variation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SFC Forever Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 We are trying ever so hard to forget exactly where we are right now. Just to recap, we are bottom with 5 points and still 7 points from the escape hatch. Even if we climb well away it will take a phenominal effort to reach the play-offs. I would love to see us do it but am trying to avoid the running before we walk syndrome. Yes it is still a possibility that we will make it but that at the moment is all. Having watched all our home games and an away at Swindon i am still slightly concerned by the weaknesses in our squad. We only need Jaidhi to have an injury persay and our whole plan can crumble before our very eyes. Before we count our chickens could we see AP add some more strength to our squad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Fan CaM Posted 14 October, 2009 Share Posted 14 October, 2009 I have just finished reading a book based on Fermat's Last Theorem. It was quite good. HTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
martel Posted 15 October, 2009 Share Posted 15 October, 2009 Hmm I'm still going to stay on the cautious side. I think a mid table finish would be adequate after the points deduction and the ownership fiasco during the pre-season. Give us two more transfer windows and I think we will hit the ground running hard come next season. I have to agree with that, in fact gaining promotion to the championship this season could prove counter productive; I say this as we would have to go out and find other players to support what we have, as Saint Bones wrote it is better to hit hard next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandwichsaint Posted 15 October, 2009 Share Posted 15 October, 2009 I have to agree with that, in fact gaining promotion to the championship this season could prove counter productive; I say this as we would have to go out and find other players to support what we have, as Saint Bones wrote it is better to hit hard next season. I'm really finding it hard to get my head around this attitude that a minority of people would 'choose' not to go up this season ... some would rather we waited a year and Went-Up-As-Champions, others think we might not be ready .... FFS! In no way am I suggesting this would happen but take this scenario: We win 25 of our remaining games We sign two more decent players in Jan We play the second half of the season to home crowds of 25k We take followings of 1500+ to all away games We win our play-off semi 4-1 on aggregate We win 3-0 at Wembley in the play-off final Pardew named L1 manager of the year We sign 4 good CCC players in the summer window We have a 'proper pre-season' for the first time in how long? We sell 18k season tickets for next season's CCC Are some people really saying if that scenario carried through (however unlikely!) 'we wouldn't be ready to play in the CCC next season'; would some people really swap that scenario 'to go up as Champions' twelve months later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merrimd Posted 15 October, 2009 Share Posted 15 October, 2009 I have to agree with that, in fact gaining promotion to the championship this season could prove counter productive; I say this as we would have to go out and find other players to support what we have, as Saint Bones wrote it is better to hit hard next season. However, if we got prmoted from our current position, most on here would say we would already have a CCC quality squad, how many more would we need to bring in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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