The Finals Polls

[dune]

Harris CON 35%(-1), LAB 29%(+3), LDEM 27%(-1) (updated)

 

TNS BMRB CON 33%(-1), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

 

Opinium CON 35%(+2), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 26%(-1)

 

Populus CON 37%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 27%(-1)

 

Angus Reid CON 36%(+1), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 29%(nc)

 

YouGov CON 35%(nc), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 28%(+4)

 

ICM CON 36%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 26%(-2)

 

ComRes CON 37%(nc), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 28%(+2)

 

So the Poll of Polls (excluding the anomilies) is:

 

CON 36%, LAB 28%, LIB 27%

 

Based on a uniform swing it would give the following result:

 

CON 283 seats, LAB 258 seats, LIB 80 seats

 

However it must be remembered that in LAB-CON marginals polls have suggested a swing of 7% to the Conservatives. Meanwhile in LIB-CON marginals there has been little swing in the polls. It's fair to say that the Conservatives are going to be the biggest party, but the question mark is how close they will get to the magic 326 seats needed for a majority.

Edited 5 May, 2010 by dune
adding new polls as they come in

[dune]

http://ukpollingreport.wordpress.com/

 

To keep updated as they come in.

[Wade Garrett]

dune, just wait until the proper poll tomorrow. Have a few beers and chill out.

[dune]

There is a Twitter rumour that YouGov is going to be CON 35% LAB 28% LIB 28%

[SuperMikey]

Don't sh!t yourself Stanley, we'll find out in good time what the real polls are.

Are you not voting National Fro...I mean, BNP, in the election then? I'm sure they'll miss you

[dune]

Don't sh!t yourself Stanley, we'll find out in good time what the real polls are.

Are you not voting National Fro...I mean, BNP, in the election then? I'm sure they'll miss you

 

Don't read the thread if you're not interested. And cut out the NF stuff, it gets boring enough when a certain other poster keeps going on about it. It doesn't bother me personally, but it's bloody selfish for everyone else that may just want to read a thread minus the crap.

[SuperMikey]

Don't read the thread if you're not interested. And cut out the NF stuff, it gets boring enough when a certain other poster keeps going on about it. It doesn't bother me personally, but it's bloody selfish for everyone else that may just want to read a thread minus the crap.

 

I am interested, but do we really need a new thread every time a new poll comes out?

[dune]

I am interested, but do we really need a new thread every time a new poll comes out?

 

There is going to be a glut of polls this evening so this thread keeps them all in one place. I'll update the OP as they come in so it'll be easy to see the Final last day polls.

[badgerx16]

As far as I can makeout, none of the above results would put DC in No 10 with an overall majority - RESULT ;-)

[dune]

As far as I can makeout, none of the above results would put DC in No 10 with an overall majority - RESULT ;-)

 

Correct, but remember it's the marginals that matter. YouGov also did a final poll of Lab-Con marginal seats, showing a 7 point swing to the Tories

[Joesaint]

As far as I can makeout, none of the above results would put DC in No 10 with an overall majority - RESULT ;-)

 

 

You would rather Brown!!!!!!!!!!!! F**k me I understand some voters are 'loyal' but its not a football team (stick with them in hard times) I can't understand how anyone could vote for brown, if its for J Denham I may understand but not Brown as PM for gods sake. If you don't know know you will soon see how bad a position we are in due to his crazy spending, the guy is an idiot, although I'm sure he is trying hard!!!!!

[badgerx16]

You would rather Brown!!!!!!!!!!!! F**k me I understand some voters are 'loyal' but its not a football team (stick with them in hard times) I can't understand how anyone could vote for brown, if its for J Denham I may understand but not Brown as PM for gods sake. If you don't know know you will soon see how bad a position we are in due to his crazy spending, the guy is an idiot, although I'm sure he is trying hard!!!!!

Vox-Pop on Radio4 this evening, talking to a woman in West Yorkshire who said she was voting LD - when asked why not for the Tories she replied "I could never support Cameron, he's an idiot".

As for me, anything that prevents DC getting an overall majority is fine, in fact I might settle for him struggling with a minority regime, possibly propped up by the UU for about 18 months, if Eddie George's prediction might come to fruition.

Oh, and btw, I will vote according to policy, not personality - this is not the X-Factor.

[dune]

The historical polling bias to Labour gets interesting on these numbers

 

We all know about 1992 (a 9.5% overstatement of Labour votes), but there has been consistent overstatement since then

 

3.5% in 1997, 6.5% in 2001 and 2.9% in 2005

 

Will it be the same this year or will it be the story for the Lib Dems?

 

I have a sneaky feeling that the Tory vote will rise once voters are in the polling station because there is a stigma attatched to supporting the nasty Tories, but when it comes to putting an X in the box many people see sense and vote Conservative because they know they are the party that is best for the economy.

[buctootim]

when it comes to putting an X in the box many people see sense and vote Conservative because they know they are the party that is best for the economy.

 

That has been true in the past, but Im not sure its true this time. With Osbourne on the front bench its actually one of their weakest areas.

[aintforever]

I think fear of a hung parliament will mean a lot of people will go for change to Tory at the last minute.

 

A hung parliament would be a disaster with so many big, tough decisions to be made.

[dune]

That has been true in the past, but Im not sure its true this time. With Osbourne on the front bench its actually one of their weakest areas.

 

Have you noticed how little we've seen of Osbourne since he made a tit of himself on the chancellors debate at the start of the campaign? Senior Conservative have clearly ordered that he gets as little exposure as possible. Meanwhile we've seen and read much more from Ken Clarke.

[scotty]

Have you noticed how little we've seen of Osbourne since he made a tit of himself on the chancellors debate at the start of the campaign? Senior Conservative have clearly ordered that he gets as little exposure as possible. Meanwhile we've seen and read much more from Ken Clarke.

 

I didnt see that one, in fact I havent watched any of them, but I recall several radio 4/5 reports saying that the debate had strengthened his public perception?

[dune]

That has been true in the past, but Im not sure its true this time. With Osbourne on the front bench its actually one of their weakest areas.

 

I'm currently watching Newsnight and of all the people who say they're undecided I have a little hunch they just don't want to admit on camera that they'll vote Tory.

[1976_Child]

Harris CON 35%(-1), LAB 29%(+3), LDEM 27%(-1) (updated)

 

TNS BMRB CON 33%(-1), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

 

Opinium CON 35%(+2), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 26%(-1)

 

Populus CON 37%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 27%(-1)

 

Angus Reid CON 36%(+1), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 29%(nc)

 

YouGov CON 35%(nc), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 28%(+4)

 

ICM CON 36%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 26%(-2)

 

ComRes CON 37%(nc), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 28%(+2)

 

So the Poll of Polls (excluding the anomilies) is:

 

CON 36%, LAB 28%, LIB 27%

 

Based on a uniform swing it would give the following result:

 

CON 283 seats, LAB 258 seats, LIB 80 seats

 

However it must be remembered that in LAB-CON marginals polls have suggested a swing of 7% to the Conservatives. Meanwhile in LIB-CON marginals there has been little swing in the polls. It's fair to say that the Conservatives are going to be the biggest party, but the question mark is how close they will get to the magic 326 seats needed for a majority.

 

Dune, you are a legend, alas!

 

Here's for HM telling Brown to sling his hook and giving the keys to Number 10 to Cameron even if he doesn't get a majority.

 

Up the Saints! And up a friggin' change in Number 10! Come on Cameron, you may not be perfect but at least you are not Brown...!

Edited 6 May, 2010 by 1976_Child

[GenevaSaint]

Come on Cameron, you may not be perfect but at least you are not Brown...!

 

I remember similar discussions a few years ago, it went along the lines of anyone but Lowe.....

 

We all know how that ended up :-)

 

You have been warned. lol.

[Wes Tender]

As far as I can makeout, none of the above results would put DC in No 10 with an overall majority - RESULT ;-)

 

Result? Did I misunderstand the election process? Is the make-up of the next government determined by the opinion polls? If it's all been decided already, then there's no point in me going to cast my vote then?

 

Or did I read it wrong? So there's an option on the ballot papers "none of the above" and if sufficient numbers vote that way, Cameron will be elected PM.

 

Ah, that makes more sense.

[Wes Tender]

I remember similar discussions a few years ago, it went along the lines of anyone but Lowe.....

 

We all know how that ended up :-)

 

You have been warned. lol.

 

Yes. We got Markus Liebherr. Brilliant, wasn't it?

[trousers]

 

Yes. We got Markus Liebherr. Brilliant, wasn't it?

Good analogy :-)

[trousers]

Vox-Pop on Radio4 this evening, talking to a woman in West Yorkshire who said she was voting LD - when asked why not for the Tories she replied "I could never support Cameron, he's an idiot".

 

And there was me doubting the insightful intellect of the British public....

[trousers]

Vox-Pop on Radio4 this evening, talking to a woman in West Yorkshire who said she was voting LD - when asked why not for the Tories she replied "I could never support Cameron, he's an idiot".

As for me, anything that prevents DC getting an overall majority is fine, in fact I might settle for him struggling with a minority regime, possibly propped up by the UU for about 18 months, if Eddie George's prediction might come to fruition.

Oh, and btw, I will vote according to policy, not personality - this is not the X-Factor.

So, a human being's character and personality have no influence whatsoever on their actions...?

[GenevaSaint]

Yes. We got Markus Liebherr. Brilliant, wasn't it?

 

Based on that Analogy, we'll have ordinary Dave for a while, he'll make matters worse then Nick Clegg will save us at the last minute.

 

I can't wait for this forum to be closed and get back to football. Roll on the summer transfer window and friendlies.

[dune]

Come on Cameron, you may not be perfect but at least you are not Brown...!

 

I couldn't have put it better myself.

[ladysaint]

Are we not doing our own poll on here just for fun.

[badgerx16]

So, a human being's character and personality have no influence whatsoever on their actions...?

They do, but that should not be the over-riding consideration - the problem with Politics today is it is all about sound bites and how the leadership appeal to the Hello & OK generation, with their 60 second attention span.

[dune]

Are we not doing our own poll on here just for fun.

 

I think the powers that be got the result they wanted after the first debate and have decided to leave it at that.

[Wes Tender]

Based on that Analogy, we'll have ordinary Dave for a while, he'll make matters worse then Nick Clegg will save us at the last minute.

 

I can't wait for this forum to be closed and get back to football. Roll on the summer transfer window and friendlies.

 

There are two possible analogies, but naturally you sought only to see the one that you favoured.

 

The second analogy is that Brown's bacon is saved by a Lib/Lab pact, which proves to be just as much a lame duck government as the last one and then eventually they are forced into another election. The public, having learned the lesson again that Lib/Lab is even more useless than just Brown's Labour by itself, then votes in Cameron.

[dune]

From the Polling Report website...

 

Anyway, enough of the polling – how will it translate into seats? On a uniform swing a split of 36/28/27 would translate into a seat distribution of Conservatives 297, Labour 245 and Lib Dems 76. There are a couple of departures from UNS that we can be pretty confident of though – firstly, Scotland will not follow this pattern. The polling suggests Labour’s support in Scotland is pretty solid and there is certainly no Conservative advance (and the SNP surge we were seeing a year or two back has also gone.)

 

I also expect the Conservatives to outperform the national swing in Labour held marginals – the seven percent swing we’ve seen in the YouGov, MORI and Crosby/Textor polls would take the Conservatives over 300 and close to a majority. What is much more difficult to do is predict what will happen in Lib Dem marginals. It seems likely the Conservative advance will be slightly offset by losing seats to the Liberal Democrats, but there have been a couple of straws in the wind like that ICM poll of Lib Dem marginals that suggest the Lib Dems are advancing more in Labour held marginals than Conservative ones. We don’t have the polling evidence to judge that – but whether the Lib Dems advance evenly, or do better against Labour, will be the difference between the Conservatives getting about 300 seats and getting up to 310 or more.

 

Anyway, I can’t delay it any longer: my guess is we are going to see the Conservatives between 300-310, Labour between 220-230, the Liberal Democrats between 80-90 (though I warn you, I may be a pollster, but my personal powers of election prediction are notoriously poor!)

 

For other pollster predictions, TNS have made a seat prediction of CON 292, LAB 204, LDEM 114; Peter Kellner’s personal prediction is CON 300-310, LAB 230-240, LDEM 75-85; Angus Reid have a prediction of CON 320-340, LAB 165-185, LDEM 105-120.

[jeff leopard]

Happy Voting People, and don't forget...

 

[The9]

I think fear of a hung parliament will mean a lot of people will go for change to Tory at the last minute.

 

A hung parliament would be a disaster with so many big, tough decisions to be made.

 

Interesting theory, but surely decisions by consensus for the benefit of all with no prospect of following party agendas, and with no fear of single-party voter retribution over difficult decisions is the best way to get effective policy made ?

 

Of course if they can't achieve compromise and instead go and have another election as with 1974 then that all goes out the window...

 

From a general perspective, polls (even exit polls) mean nothing, anyone who lived through the 1992 debacle would tell you that - thousands of people telling the polls they'd voted Labour and voting Conservative.

[The9]

Up the Saints! And up a friggin' change in Number 10!

 

What's Paul Wotton done to you ?

[Wes Tender]

Happy Voting People, and don't forget...

 

 

Whereas people who vote Labour are self-gratification experts and those who vote Lib/Dem are self-abusers.