Dave's Maggie Moment

[dune]

I certainly did not vote for David Cameron and his party, but what he did early this morning made be proud he is our Prime Minister.

 

[Jonnyboy]

let's face it Cameron had no choice, the UK economy couldn't survive the rule changes.

So right or wrong he followed the only path open to him.

The UK's entire economy is balanced on the City of London and the possibility of increasing M3(?) levels at will.Cameron,Brown,Clegg,Blair,Milliband or Winston Churchill the outcome would have been the same.You're in a "no can do" situation as far as clamping down on the city is concerned.

 

Wrong wrong wrong

[CB Saint]

Wrong wrong wrong

 

You are right, it only accounts for 1,000,000 jobs and £70bn in tax revenues

[Jonnyboy]

You are right, it only accounts for 1,000,000 jobs and £70bn in tax revenues

 

So thatd be about 9% of our economy.

[dune]

So thatd be about 9% of our economy.

 

Hardly worth bothering about then?

[Brussels Saint]

I think you've identified the important issues in the argument here Brussels Saint.

 

But I'm not sure that I can quite reconcile your statements in bold.

 

You're sure today was a good day to be British for what reason? Is this a national pride thing? Because you go on to qualify that with the hope that we don't pay too high a price for it.

 

Would it still be a good day to be British if we end up paying too high a price for it?

 

The leaders of the 17+ will be meeting once per month moving forward to decide on priorities. That is a series of meetings ideally I'd like us influencing. This will not happen. And if those 17+ operate on a block vote in non-Euro zone matters, it could make things very difficult for us. Our key national interests are protected by veto but as you outline above, things could get pretty tough.

 

As I just heard a European reformer say "If you're not at the table, you're on the menu"

 

You got it about right with your analysis of the risks I would say.

My point about it being a good day to be British, is down to the national pride thing. We are who we are even if it ultimately costs us and few can argue the majority public view is fairly anti EU (in my view mainly because the anti arguments are easier to make and resonate more in an emotional way)

 

The public view however is not always right, though politicians can never state that, but Cameron did speak for that view today and the hope will be he gets away with it.

If not and we do get impacted badly, few can argue its what we've been asking for.

[Saintandy666]

We're no longer at the top table.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

So thatd be about 9% of our economy.

 

You are very naive if you think that everyone else is not thinking of their own national interest.

[scotty]

You got it about right with your analysis of the risks I would say.

My point about it being a good day to be British, is down to the national pride thing. We are who we are even if it ultimately costs us and few can argue the majority public view is fairly anti EU (in my view mainly because the anti arguments are easier to make and resonate more in an emotional way)

 

The public view however is not always right, though politicians can never state that, but Cameron did speak for that view today and the hope will be he gets away with it.

If not and we do get impacted badly, few can argue its what we've been asking for.

 

Good post, but I slightly disagree with the point about us getting "impacted badly". Ultimately, if we had signed up to the euro and therefore been at the big table Blair was so desperate to sit at, we would be right in the shlt with the rest of them by now. Thatcher and Major were able to negotiate good deals for the UK precisely because we were outside the federal european mainstream, not in spite of it. As it stands, we are still more in control of our own economy than anybody in the eurozone; Greece, Ireland, Portugal etc are basically doing what Germany and France are telling them to. They have no choice, at least until the euro in its current form collapses. We at least have the luxury of voting for the people that determine our economic policy. I agree that when the euro goes it will affect us, but not as badly as if we had to revert to another currency in the middle of a global economic meltdown.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

We're no longer at the top table.

 

There you go again running us down. We are far more likely to return to the top table if we can make ourselves economically competitive and we can do that far more easily without the burdens of EU regulations. Do you really believe that the French and the Germans are not acting in their own interests?

[dune]

We're no longer at the top table.

 

So what.

 

All sitting at the top table means is kowtowing to the Germans and the French. They want a European superstate and they are not going to take no for an answer. Our only choice is IN or OUT.

[dune]

I agree that when the euro goes it will affect us, but not as badly as if we had to revert to another currency in the middle of a global economic meltdown.

 

All the rhetoric about a cataclysm should the Euro be dropped by 5 or 6 nations is utter nonsense. It is just the medicine that the world needs. If the indebted southern European states are allowed to rebalance with a weak currency to fuel growth we will benefit. On the other hand the Germans would see a strengthenng of the Euro and that would be detrimental to their exports. That is why the Germans are so desperate for THEIR Euro to survive. It gives them a false exchange rate that benefits them.

[saintbletch]

You got it about right with your analysis of the risks I would say.

My point about it being a good day to be British, is down to the national pride thing. We are who we are even if it ultimately costs us and few can argue the majority public view is fairly anti EU (in my view mainly because the anti arguments are easier to make and resonate more in an emotional way)

 

The public view however is not always right, though politicians can never state that, but Cameron did speak for that view today and the hope will be he gets away with it.

If not and we do get impacted badly, few can argue its what we've been asking for.

 

As I said above I don't think Cameron had a position that could be called a 'win' and given that, then he didn't really have a choice.

 

I see the media is reporting this along political lines. The right is saying that Cameron is a hero and that we're best off out of it.

 

The centre-left is painting Cameron as having been 'owned' by Sarkozy. They point out that before the summit Sarkozy told Cameron to shut up and keep out of Euro business. And now after the summit, despite Cameron telling Sarkozy that he wanted a say, here we are now on the outside without a say in Euro zone business. One-nil to Sarkozy.

[Sergei Gotsmanov]

As I said above I don't think Cameron had a position that could be called a 'win' and given that, then he didn't really have a choice.

 

I see the media is reporting this along political lines. The right is saying that Cameron is a hero and that we're best off out of it.

 

The centre-left is painting Cameron as having been 'owned' by Sarkozy. They point out that before the summit Sarkozy told Cameron to shut up and keep out of Euro business. And now after the summit, despite Cameron telling Sarkozy that he wanted a say, here we are now on the outside without a say in Euro zone business. One-nil to Sarkozy.

 

There are no winners from this

[Jonnyboy]

All the rhetoric about a cataclysm should the Euro be dropped by 5 or 6 nations is utter nonsense. It is just the medicine that the world needs. If the indebted southern European states are allowed to rebalance with a weak currency to fuel growth we will benefit. On the other hand the Germans would see a strengthenng of the Euro and that would be detrimental to their exports. That is why the Germans are so desperate for THEIR Euro to survive. It gives them a false exchange rate that benefits them.

 

I dont have a problem with any of this, whether we are "in" or "out" who cares, but if we are to avoid a tobin or robin hood tax I worry that we will have another credit crunch and not be able to save our banks at all next time.

[hutch]

For goodness sake. What on earth makes you think that the top table is anywhere in Europe?

 

Edit: Sorry I meant to link that to SaintAndy666's earlier post

Edited 9 December, 2011 by hutch

[saintbletch]

There are no winners from this

 

I'd agree that it might be pyrrhic, but you'd have to say that Cameron wanted to stay in the club with some opt outs for the UK, and Sarkozy wanted the UK out of the club.

 

On that basis, it looks like there is a winner and a loser there.

[Saintandy666]

For goodness sake. What on earth makes you think that the top table is anywhere in Europe?

 

Edit: Sorry I meant to link that to SaintAndy666's earlier post

 

I obviously meant the top table within Europe (Europe as a whole is still reasonably influential, but that's not really the point). Cameron has left us totally isolated now. We are an irrelevance tonight.

[dune]

I obviously meant the top table within Europe (Europe as a whole is still reasonably influential, but that's not really the point). Cameron has left us totally isolated now. We are an irrelevance tonight.

 

On the contrary, whilst we retain our sovereignty we will not be slaves. have some pride in our great country.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggdudSsR4BM

Edited 9 December, 2011 by dune

[aintforever]

I agree with Cameron's decision even though I think the tax on banks is a good idea. A transaction tax need to be implemented in the other major finance capitals around the world for it to work.

 

If the Eurozone plough ahead with their own little club we should leave the EU altogether. Let the French and Germans bail out Greece.

[dune]

Dave has now sealed his very own chapter...

 

[Painter]

Dune, would you like an invite to the street party I intend to hold on the death of Thatcher???

[hutch]

I saw the handshake "snub" between Cameron & Sarkozy on the news. Was it or wasn't it?

 

But I was absolutely enraged in the subsequent interview where Adam Boulton called Cameron "Dave no-mates". Call me old-fashioned if you like, but our Prime Minister is our elected PRIME MINISTER, and Boulton is a paid "journalist".

 

I might live 6,000 miles away, but I really hope that UK PLC hasn't sold it's soul to MURDOCH PLC

[dune]

Dune, would you like an invite to the street party I intend to hold on the death of Thatcher???

 

I don't eat food produced from a council house.

[revolution saint]

I have to be honest and say from an economic point of view that the Euro never convinced me because it tried to unite sovereign states that were just too diverse. The latest treaty only seeks to bond even closer a diverse Europe that economically struggles to find a good fit. I guess I'm happy we didn't sign the treaty but I'm not going to jump for joy either.

[CB Saint]

Most of this wil all be academic anyway, if the markets decide that the Eurozone hasn't dealt with the Euro issues well enough.

 

For the euro to function Germany has to accept that it will have to supplement the southern med states (seem likely?) and assuming they swallow this, unfortunately they have got the money, not in the amounts that is required to sort out the PIIGS once and for all.

 

SO nothing has changed. We have had a in out of treaty side show and more procrastination from the politicians.

[solentstars]

I don't eat food produced from a council house.

i suppose thats the price hobos pay for going threw the bins:)its hard to change old habits

[solentstars]

I have to be honest and say from an economic point of view that the Euro never convinced me because it tried to unite sovereign states that were just too diverse. The latest treaty only seeks to bond even closer a diverse Europe that economically struggles to find a good fit. I guess I'm happy we didn't sign the treaty but I'm not going to jump for joy either.

i agree and its not a matter of in out but alot of factors need to be taken into account like what happens to our car industry and suppliers alot which are german french japanese owned if we left the single market i expect they would they move to the eurozone.hopefully it will be resolved sooner than later and we can get on the real business of getting the unemployed back to work and growth based on sound money.

[Gingeletiss]

26 other countries seemed to think it was alright! Either way, by being so aggressive in our tone, we've lost influence and are now isolated and we slide towards irrelevance. Even if that tone does appease Tory backbenchers, it isn't in the UK's interest to be isolated.

 

Most of those are takers, not givers! they'd say yes to anything, to remain in the 'Franco/Germanic' gang.

[Gingeletiss]

what the hell has the "average UK punter" got to do with someone with a modicum of intelligence?You only need to look at the "average UK punter" from the outside to know that he/she is pretty moronic with no intelligence whatsoever.Obviously it's only 40% ish of the population but they're the ones who shout loudest and read the Sun.

 

That's a good thing then, as the Sun wants us out of Europe!

[Gingeletiss]

I presume that you are referring to 13 years of Labour misrule here ??

 

This....

[Gingeletiss]

Rather patronising to us.

 

We were mistaken in not joining the Euro then Andy. Whose cock up was the Euro? Do you feel that the new Europe is a step foprward for democracy?

 

This treaty was put together in a hurry to patch up the Euro, which as a concept remains fundementally flawed and ultimately doomed. Is it wise to throw are hand in with countries that have been run like Portsmouth football club.

 

How do you think the people in markets around Europe will respond when they endure proper austerity measures essentially imposed by the Germans.

 

...and this!

[Viking Warrior]

Emma Reynolds labour mp what an absolute joke typical labour . I believe cameron has done the right thing . I'm pleased he stood up to Sarkosy and Merkel. Oh and what real authority do Lithuania have in euro. Have to laugh at the mirrors headline . Louis Walsh 30k hair transplant

[Frank's cousin]

Right or wrong? time will tell on the economic front - Those currently jumping for joy are those that have just had their nationalistic egos massaged, nothing more. The biggest irony in all this is the German and French would have preferred a totally committed UK membership, given our status from the day we joined in '74. Had that occured, Instead of the perceived need to the UK to lick the backsides of the French and Germans the remaining EU states would now be listening to a UK-German-French elite... but we have forever been on the outside ****ing in so for the UK we have never had the opportunity to truely shape the EU economy or legislation... which ****es of the nationalistic dullards so much.

 

Britain has tried to dictate the clubs rules, without ever adopting them, without embracing the ideas of the club, so naturally the other members might feel we have outstayed our welcome anyway.

 

I would just add one point. Many industrialists/businessness types/Mail readers suggest we are a better proposition for industry because we are not locked in to EU employment law as most of the others - It is far easier to sack or make redundant a british worker in the UK, that a French or German one for example - less costly less red tape.. they argue it makes us more competitive and attracts business to our shores... Yet I think we can safely assume it has not prevented Germany growing economically... nor could you deny that the USA which has about the easiest sacking/redundancy legislation, is not in turmoil right now.... and this is legislation designed to PROTECT workers. That's what's so commical about their attitudes (or so sad) that they rejoice in the UK being free of 'red tape' that makes the lives of ordinary workers just that bit more secure (guess that's the typical Thatcherite attitude though).... the Germans have got where they are becuse of attitude to work, graft and effort, despite taking on the economic burden of the former East and the economic pain it caused them. Its not beyond the relms of reasoning to suggest that handled the right way, its the job security that this legislation provides that encourages productivity, loyalty and growth...

[CB Saint]

Certain aspect of eu employment law is ok, other aren't. The working time directive in it's current form is ok, however the French have in the past wanted to impose a mandatory 35 hour week using this legislation. He agency workers directive is an appalling piece of legislation that is hurting the very people it was supposed to protect.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

It's always illuminating when those who hold a skeptical view of the EU are depicted as vile 'nationalists', while EU enthusiasts on the other hand are presumed to be above all that for some reason. But the EU is surely just another national state in the making, its single currency and now proposals for de facto economic control from the centre prove the point beyond dispute I would have thought.

 

I say the further the seat of power is removed away from the people the less representative of those very same people it must become. Of course large sections of our 'Political Class' would like to be a part of the ever more centralised EU because this offers them a unique opportunity to gain more power and influence in the world, but the true motivation behind that need is very often one of furthering their own ambitions rather than some selfless desire to better represent the interests of ordinary people. It was ever thus with ambitious politicians I'm afraid.

 

Personally instead of centralising political power in Brussels I think we should be devolving, or a least retaining more of it, so that it better represents what our British interests are rather than massaging the egos of a remote pan-European political elite. The people of the British Isles can choose to be ruled from London or Brussels I suppose - I know which option I'd prefer but lets face it, either way we'll be ruled from somewhere.

[dune]

The Centralisation of power C E C talks about is typical for a widely Socialist Europe. Socialism is in the European psyche', wheras Britain is and always has been an Isle with a Conservative inclination. Socialism is a failed philosphy so it is ludicrous to embark on a centralised course. What the Germans are doing is building the EUSR.

[Window Cleaner]

So if I surmise correctly the average Briton doesn't want to be part of the EEC except for the Common Market part and the average European doesn't give a toss whether Briton is in or out so everybody's happy...move on.

[Jonnyboy]

The Centralisation of power C E C talks about is typical for a widely Socialist Europe. Socialism is in the European psyche', wheras Britain is and always has been an Isle with a Conservative inclination. Socialism is a failed philosphy so it is ludicrous to embark on a centralised course. What the Germans are doing is building the EUSR.

 

So socialist Germany is growing ever stronger whilst conservative Britain sinks into another recession.

 

Anyway, left right, socialist fascist, it doesnt make any difference the markets run the world.

 

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/comment/talking-politics/cameron-historic-failure-over-europe-105748334.html

 

[dune]

China runs the world.

 

David Niven (or possibly Napoleon) once said "Let China sleep for when she wakes the world will tremble".

 

(one of my favourite fims)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AayYzeW4E3o

[Jonnyboy]

Don't forget Dave has £40mill in the bank and all his mates are millionaires. He won't messing with the UKs banks, they'll have had words with him. Who do you think allowed Tory HQ to be trashed by the students?

[dune]

Don't forget Dave has £40mill in the bank and all his mates are millionaires. He won't messing with the UKs banks, they'll have had words with him. Who do you think allowed Tory HQ to be trashed by the students?

 

Do you have a pension?

[saintbletch]

Right or wrong? time will tell on the economic front - Those currently jumping for joy are those that have just had their nationalistic egos massaged, nothing more. The biggest irony in all this is the German and French would have preferred a totally committed UK membership, given our status from the day we joined in '74. Had that occured, Instead of the perceived need to the UK to lick the backsides of the French and Germans the remaining EU states would now be listening to a UK-German-French elite... but we have forever been on the outside ****ing in so for the UK we have never had the opportunity to truely shape the EU economy or legislation... which ****es of the nationalistic dullards so much.

 

Britain has tried to dictate the clubs rules, without ever adopting them, without embracing the ideas of the club, so naturally the other members might feel we have outstayed our welcome anyway.

 

I would just add one point. Many industrialists/businessness types/Mail readers suggest we are a better proposition for industry because we are not locked in to EU employment law as most of the others - It is far easier to sack or make redundant a british worker in the UK, that a French or German one for example - less costly less red tape.. they argue it makes us more competitive and attracts business to our shores... Yet I think we can safely assume it has not prevented Germany growing economically... nor could you deny that the USA which has about the easiest sacking/redundancy legislation, is not in turmoil right now.... and this is legislation designed to PROTECT workers. That's what's so commical about their attitudes (or so sad) that they rejoice in the UK being free of 'red tape' that makes the lives of ordinary workers just that bit more secure (guess that's the typical Thatcherite attitude though).... the Germans have got where they are becuse of attitude to work, graft and effort, despite taking on the economic burden of the former East and the economic pain it caused them. Its not beyond the relms of reasoning to suggest that handled the right way, its the job security that this legislation provides that encourages productivity, loyalty and growth...

 

I agree with most of this Frank's Cousin and especially the piece in bold.

 

I would say though that what has ensured that labour laws haven't unduly affected Germany's economy is an artificially low exchange rate for their exports. Having the Euro's value pegged at some sort of warped mean of powerhouse and basket case economies alike has ensured that Germany's production is exportable in a way that economic feedback would have stifled for other economies. China's manipulation of its currency versus the Dollar has had the same effect. Likewise the Greek's would have an incredible tourist industry right now if we were able to pay for our summer-on-a-li-lo in Drachmas.

 

Having said all that, I agree that German attitudes to work, engineering and commerce in general have played a significant role in their success - despite protective labour laws.

[belgrave]

Right or wrong? time will tell on the economic front - Those currently jumping for joy are those that have just had their nationalistic egos massaged, nothing more. The biggest irony in all this is the German and French would have preferred a totally committed UK membership, given our status from the day we joined in '74. Had that occured, Instead of the perceived need to the UK to lick the backsides of the French and Germans the remaining EU states would now be listening to a UK-German-French elite... but we have forever been on the outside ****ing in so for the UK we have never had the opportunity to truely shape the EU economy or legislation... which ****es of the nationalistic dullards so much.

 

Britain has tried to dictate the clubs rules, without ever adopting them, without embracing the ideas of the club, so naturally the other members might feel we have outstayed our welcome anyway.

 

I would just add one point. Many industrialists/businessness types/Mail readers suggest we are a better proposition for industry because we are not locked in to EU employment law as most of the others - It is far easier to sack or make redundant a british worker in the UK, that a French or German one for example - less costly less red tape.. they argue it makes us more competitive and attracts business to our shores... Yet I think we can safely assume it has not prevented Germany growing economically... nor could you deny that the USA which has about the easiest sacking/redundancy legislation, is not in turmoil right now.... and this is legislation designed to PROTECT workers. That's what's so commical about their attitudes (or so sad) that they rejoice in the UK being free of 'red tape' that makes the lives of ordinary workers just that bit more secure (guess that's the typical Thatcherite attitude though).... the Germans have got where they are becuse of attitude to work, graft and effort, despite taking on the economic burden of the former East and the economic pain it caused them. Its not beyond the relms of reasoning to suggest that handled the right way, its the job security that this legislation provides that encourages productivity, loyalty and growth...

. 100 per cent right. I manage a group with German, USA, uk and far eastern based people. Despite the hiring / firing processes in Germany being a bit more convoluted, I'd (as a generalisation) take this as a decent return for their general attitude, education, loyalty and productivity.

[saintbletch]

So socialist Germany is growing ever stronger whilst conservative Britain sinks into another recession.

 

Anyway, left right, socialist fascist, it doesnt make any difference the markets run the world.

Of course some configurations of socialism don't countenance free market opportunism. But I take your point.

 

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/comment/talking-politics/cameron-historic-failure-over-europe-105748334.html

 

An interesting read. But I think it's a little over the top to suggest that the changes in the treaty mean that the Euro zone is now some form of financial sector puppet. The argument that he seems to be making is that there is some form of conspiracy because the new treaty is written to benefit the financial sector as it protects their potential losses if they had bought government debt bonds from a state that fails.

 

I'm not suggesting that the Euro zone isn't a puppet of the financial sector, it plainly is. But that has more to do with investors' concerns over the risk of buying Euro zone governmental debt.

 

Rather than conspiracy, surely the logic behind underwriting such financial sector losses in the treaty is that without risk; lending, borrowing and the government bond market will become less prone to spikes and illiquidity.

 

The corollary of that is that without punitive rates to raise money in the bond market coupled to better budgetary control (that will be enforced centrally), the nation states should each be able to start to bring their debt under control.

 

Given where we are and given the gravity of the situation. I'd say that this is a sensible approach.

 

Whether it will work is another matter.

[pap]

Watching last night's Newsnight on iPlayer.

 

I have to say, I'm not actually impressed with the EU's plan. Part of what they agreed yesterday is that it'll be illegal for them to spend themselves out of recession. That being the case, where is the growth going to come from?

 

Another result of yesterday's discussion is that each Parliament will need to submit its budget for review to the EU, who can suggest changes if they think a country is going to blow its budget. It is supposed to be protection, but in reality, it'll never work. Countries won't fully account for their outgoings and sh*t happens.

 

Countries will inevitably break the rules and have various arms of the EU apparatus bearing down on them. Any country that breaks the rules can lose voting rights, leaving only the solvent countries with a full voice.

 

It is a bad plan for recovery, and a bad deal for any country that finds itself strapped for cash. I'm not surprised that we didn't sign up for it. I'm actually amazed that 26 others did.

 

I'm starting to agree with VFTT's view that this will inevitably lead to a referendum, which will inevitably lead to exit from the EU.

[Wade Garrett]

Neither did I, simply that if a similar situation occured in the long term future, the setup that France and Germany wants would be a dangerous one.

 

You're a f*cking space cadet.

[Wade Garrett]

The Centralisation of power C E C talks about is typical for a widely Socialist Europe. Socialism is in the European psyche', wheras Britain is and always has been an Isle with a Conservative inclination. Socialism is a failed philosphy so it is ludicrous to embark on a centralised course. What the Germans are doing is building the EUSR.

 

Do you really believe half of the sh*t you post?

[hypochondriac]

You're a f*cking space cadet.

 

Not really. No one has a crystal ball to predict the situation in 100 years time. Best to leave a country's independence alone as safeguards. That's just one reason.

[hypochondriac]

Do you really believe half of the sh*t you post?

 

Is everything you post just swearing and insulting others? I may have crossed the line a couple of times but it saeems that you just post insults exclusively. Well done for adding to the debate.