Guardian Premier League 2014-15 preview No14: Southampton

[Toon Saint]

A fair review I thought - though I've never heard of Sam Stephens, any good? Jacob Steinberg clearly thinks we will finish better than the average prediction of 15th.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/aug/12/southampton-premier-league-preview-2014-15

 

Guardian writers’ predicted position: 15th (NB: this is not necessarily Jacob Steinberg’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)

 

Last season’s position: 8th

 

Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 1,500-1

 

Watching Southampton being reminded of their place in the food chain has been a dispiriting experience this summer and unless you support Portsmouth, it is hard not to feel sorry for them. In another era, they might have been able to use their brilliant youth system to build something special and make a proper challenge to the bigger clubs. A team who have grown up together might have been allowed to develop into a genuine force. But not now. Their best players have been pilfered, their manager has gone and it is enough to leave one questioning what the point of all this is if a team is dismantled as soon as it threatens to smash the glass ceiling.

 

When speculation was building over the futures of several players last season, Les Reed, the club’s executive director, promised that “any enquiries we get will probably be met with a ‘no – not for sale’” and the chairman, Ralph Krueger, also said that sales would not be required to pay off Southampton’s debts. However when Ronald Koeman, Southampton’s new manager, insisted that they are a not a selling club when he was introduced to the media last month, that claim was rather undermined by the fact that they had already lost Adam Lallana, Rickie Lambert and Luke Shaw and that more were seeking moves.

 

“We sold three players,” Koeman said. “That’s good enough. Enough money. Now we will keep the rest.” A few weeks later, he was tweeting a picture of an empty pitch at Southampton’s Marchwood training ground. “Ready for training!” the Dutchman wrote.

 

Southampton Manager Ronald Koeman

Ronald Koeman has also changed the coaching set-up, bringing in his brother, Erwin (second left), and Sammy Lee (third left). Photograph: Chris Ison/PA

Koeman is not the first manager to put on a defiant face in public and will not be the last, but no one was taking those comments seriously and it was not long before an increasingly rebellious Dejan Lovren had forced through a move to Liverpool, Calum Chambers had joined Arsenal and Morgan Schneiderlin and Jay Rodriguez were itching to link up with Southampton’s previous manager, Mauricio Pochettino, at Tottenham Hotspur. Naturally supporters questioned the club’s ambition and whether the owner, Katharina Liebherr, who took over when her father, Markus, died in 2010, is in it for the long haul. Suspicion is understandable. Ever since Liebherr fell out with Nicola Cortese in January and brought in Krueger in February, there has been uncertainty. Pochettino, who was close to Cortese, could not be convinced to stay and the wheels were in motion.

 

Yet it was risky to judge too soon. For some, the sales were a sign of weakness, for others, a sign of business acumen. Southampton finished eighth and have brought in £88.5m from the sale of five players, a figure which will rise to over £100m if Schneiderlin and Rodriguez leave. Many clubs will envy them. Not many would say no to Arsenal when they were offering potentially £16m for Calum Chambers, a 19-year-old right-back with only 23 first-team appearances, while Lallana, Lovren and Shaw were expected to leave. Only Lambert’s exit was a surprise and he signed for his boyhood club.

 

Reed asked for patience. The time for judgment comes at the end of the transfer window and while there are still a few holes to fill, Southampton have calmed supporters’ nerves by signing Fraser Forster, Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle and bringing in Ryan Bertrand and Saphir Taider on loan. A deal for the Steaua Bucharest centre-back, Florin Gardos, is also imminent. Further signings are expected and when it is put like that, it is not much of a crisis.

 

Ryan Bertrand has been brought in on loan from Chelsea as a direct replacement for the departed Luke Shaw. Photograph: Peter Cziborra/Action Images

Fears that Southampton are going to be dragged into a relegation battle are misplaced, even though Koeman is essentially building a new side. Southampton have not ceased to exist. They remain in a better position than a lot of clubs, not least because of their academy, and looking at it positively, these can still be exciting times, a chance for a new manager to make his mark. It will certainly be fascinating to see how Koeman implements his ideas and whether he will make tweaks to Southampton’s high-energy pressing style. He has divided opinion during his managerial career but he is a multiple title-winner, does not lack confidence, can be expected to make good use of Southampton’s academy and his Feyernood side have been credited with providing Louis van Gaal with the inspiration for the 3-5-2 system used by Holland at the World Cup.

 

In any case, Pochettino was not perfect: there were times when Southampton relinquished leads or handed over the initiative to inferior opponents, while his bizarre and unnecessary decision to field a weakened side against Sunderland in the FA Cup attracted derision. Given that Southampton were comfortable in mid-table at the time, there was no need and a place in the final would have been within touching distance if they had beaten Sunderland. Instead they limped out meekly.

 

Absorbing the loss of Lallana will be difficult. The midfielder joined the club when he was 12 and while his progress was slower than Gareth Bale and Theo Walcott, Lallana rose through the divisions with Southampton and was always improving. Whenever it appeared that he had reached his peak, he would find another level and he was exceptional last season, scoring 10 goals, dictating the play and making the side tick. Yet Southampton have found a replacement in Tadic, and will hope the Serbian international can replicate the form he showed for Twente, for whom he scored 16 goals last season. Nathan Redmond could also arrive from Norwich City to give Southampton more width.

 

Predictably Koeman is looking to exploit his knowledge of the Dutch market and has also filled the gaping hole in attack left by Lambert by signing Pelle from Feyernoord. Inevitably there are suspicions about any striker signed from the Eredivisie – blame Afonso Alves and Mateja Kezman – and Pelle, a 29-year-old Italian, will be under pressure. He was prolific for Feyernoord but his record in Serie A was unconvincing.

 

Koeman appears to know how to get the best out of him but Southampton still need another striker now that Dani Osvaldo has joined Internazionale on loan. Sam Gallagher, a young forward, is promising but raw, while Rodriguez is sidelined until October with a serious knee injury. Tempting Javier Hernández to the south coast would be a coup.

 

Other areas of the squad are more solid. Artur Boruc managed to quell his erratic nature last season, other than a comedy attempt to dribble past Olivier Giroud that ended in disaster during a 2-0 defeat to Arsenal, but he will probably lose his place to Forster, whose arrival for £10m from Celtic suggests that Southampton’s ambition remains strong.

 

Losing the efficient midfield energy of Schneiderlin would be a blow but Southampton have added Taider, an Algerian international, as part of the Osvaldo deal and already have Jack Cork, Victor Wanyama, Stephen Davis and James Ward-Prowse in central midfield. Harrison Reed is also on the verge of breaking into the first team and Koeman is thought to be interested in Feyernoord’s Jordy Clasie.

 

However there is slight concern about the defence. Southampton have more than doubled their money on Lovren and there is little admiration for the way that he left, but the Croatian shone last season and formed a solid partnership with Fonte, who improved alongside him. Southampton cannot rely on Jos Hooiveld and Maya Yoshida and will hope that Gardos acclimatises quickly to the Premier League, if he does indeed sign.

 

Nathaniel Clyne, who was outstanding last season, will ensure that the departure of Chambers will not be felt too keenly, while the signing of Bertrand on loan from Chelsea fills the void left by Shaw on the left. There is also a belief that this could be a breakthrough year for Matt Targett, who is another product of the youth system. Other youngsters like Jordan Turnbull, Sam Stephens and Lloyd Isgrove will also hope to be involved.

 

Realistically Southampton might struggle to hit last season’s heights and a mid-table finish would represent a successful campaign after all the disruption. They are heading into unknown territory but if Koeman embraces the challenge and the new players settle, everyone will wonder what all the fuss was about. If not, the consolation is that the stripes are back and at least no one can buy them.

[UpweySaint]

About to post this one myself. The first paragraph sums it up for a lot of us ... in a different time it could have been the start of something brilliant and I imagine the writer speaks for most of us who, at some point over the summer, have thought "what the point of all this is if a team is dismantled as soon as it threatens to smash the glass ceiling."

 

Seems like a fairly reasonable assessment of our chances but let's hope Roko has a couple more surprises up his sleeve.

[Ewell]

Well done Jacob Steinberg that really is a decent and accurate summary that has been researched fairly well.

[Verbal]

Consortium 11 is a bit of an author.

[Whitey Grandad]

Well done Jacob Steinberg that really is a decent and accurate summary that has been researched fairly well.

 

I couldn't agree more It could almost have been written by one of us.

[a1ex2001]

Sums things up decently, I'm not really sure what will happen this season but it will definitely be interesting!

[sadoldgit]

Good article and something that the "bedwetters" need to read.

[Bourne Valley Saint]

Good article but the piece I agree with most strongly is - "What is the point of it all?" It sums up my feelings at this moment exactly. We had everything in place last season to be able to make a challenge for the top 6 until Cortese and Mopo left. It is like watching a house of cards come tumbling down because someone has stolen the foundations and then trying to build a new one with some of the old cards and some new ones and hope that is stays up. It all seems so pointless as had we not let the foundations go, we wouldn't be in this position. I am not stupid enough to think that we could have kept our players once Cortese and Mopo left but it does raise the question - "what is the point of it all?"

[Viking Saint]

Probably the most accurate, rational and reasoned piece of journalism about us in a good while.....can't disagree with anything there.....

[Viking Saint]

Good article but the piece I agree with most strongly is - "What is the point of it all?" It sums up my feelings at this moment exactly. We had everything in place last season to be able to make a challenge for the top 6 until Cortese and Mopo left. It is like watching a house of cards come tumbling down because someone has stolen the foundations and then trying to build a new one with some of the old cards and some new ones and hope that is stays up. It all seems so pointless as had we not let the foundations go, we wouldn't be in this position. I am not stupid enough to think that we could have kept our players once Cortese and Mopo left but it does raise the question - "what is the point of it all?"

 

You're not wrong to ask this question mate....it's what happens when money rules all and the likes of us dare to challenge the established order

[Unbelievable Jeff]

http://www.football365.com/f365-features/9416769/Preview365

 

LAST SEASON

Premier League 8th, 56pts, +8 GD FA Cup Fifth round League Cup Fourth round Top league scorer Jay Rodriguez 15 Bookings 61 (10th) with no red cards

Manager Ronald Koeman (since June 2014; age 51) Odds on being first out of his job 16-1 (7th=)

Players in Dusan Tadic (Twente, £10.9m), Fraser Forster (Celtic, £10m), Graziano Pelle (Feyenoord, £9m), Saphir Taider (Inter, Swap), Ryan Bertrand (Chelsea, loan)

Players out Luke Shaw (Manchester United, initial £30m), Adam Lallana (Liverpool, £25m), Dejan Lovren (Liverpool, £20m), Calum Chambers (Arsenal, £16m), Rickie Lambert (Liverpool, £4m), Tom Leggett, Isaac Nehemie (both Aston Villa, undisc), Danny Fox (Nottingham Forest), Andy Robinson (Bolton), Lee Barnard (Southend), Matt Young (Sheffield Wednesday), Jonathan Forte (Oldham Athletic), Dani Osvaldo (Inter, Swap), Jordan Turnbull (Swindon, loan), Lee Barnard, Joe Curtis, Giuly Do Prado, Andreas Sony (all released)

Club turnover in 2012-13 £72m, 14th

Wage bill in 2012-13 £47m, 18th

Has any club not in the throes of potential bankruptcy lost so much talent in the course of one summer? With four players sold at £16m, £20m, £25m and £30m, plus a key veteran for £4m, while the manager has taken a step up too, Southampton 2014-15 will bear precious little resemblance to the side that finished eighth in 2013-14.

Adam Lallana, Rickie Lambert and Dejan Lovren have joined Liverpool; Luke Shaw has gone to Manchester United; and Calum Chambers to Arsenal; while Mauricio Pochettino is now Spurs manager. It could be worse, with Morgan Schneiderlin agitating to rejoin Pochettino at White Hart Lane and the injured Jay Rodriguez has been linked with a similar move.

Ronald Koeman has been busy since his arrival with recruitment of replacements but if the exodus continues then it will be miraculous if the Saints can fine a decent level of cohesion until deep into the season. The Dutchman has warned Schneiderlin that he has to accept he is not for sale. "No, it is not unfair [that he must stay]. Unfair is signing a new contract and wanting to go, that's unfair." But how many times have clubs issued strong denials that a player is on his way and then caved in, accepting that an unhappy player is not worth the trouble?

On the positive side, much of the money has been reinvested. Graziano Pelle scored at a fantastic rate for Koeman at Feyenoord, first with 27 in 29 on loan and then with 23 from 28 to be the Eredivisie's second highest scorer last season. If he can reproduce that form here then £9m will seem cheap. The Italian striker will be familiar with the playmaking abilities of Dusan Tadic, signed from Twente for a couple of million more; and Fraser Forster is the latest recruit, for £10m. There has been creativity in the market, too, with Osvaldo trading places with Saphir Taider of Inter, while Ryan Bertrand comes from Chelsea on loan as the left-back to replace Shaw. Current transfer rumours regarding more players coming in include links with Steaua Bucharest centre-back Florin Gardos and left-back Marcos Rojo from Sporting Lisbon, while Arsenal's Serge Gnabry is wanted on loan.

Usually the list of players leaving is trimmed to take out the lesser known but it is worth seeing the full scale of Southampton's changes. There are bound to be more player movements before deadline day, too. They are at risk of being sued for trademark infringement by the Welsh Premier League's champions, The New Saints (formerly Total Network Solutions).

Yet Southampton are no strangers to disruption and change in recent years. It is barely five years since they went into administration and were relegated to League One, starting the 2009-10 season with a 10-point deduction. Since then they have won at Wembley (the Johnstone Paints) and finished close enough to the play-offs that they would have reached them but for the lost points; had their owner (Markus Liebherr) die on the eve of the 2010-11 season; gone on to secure successive promotions under Nigel Adkins; then sacked him in favour of Pochettino; had the man who made that decision, Nicola Cortese, depart after an "irreconcilable rift" with Katharina Liebherr, who had inherited the club from her father; and appointed as chairman a German ice hockey coach from Canada. Not since legendary 80s yachting drama Howard's Way has there been such improbably varied storylines on the south coast, with Portsmouth's financial travails more a case of spiralling down from the 2008 FA Cup win than lurching between highs and lows.

Last season was definitely a high on the pitch, even if Pochettino's side could not maintain the start that left them third in the table with 11 games played. They won just once - at Cardiff - in the next nine, and the only victories against sides that finished above them were away to Liverpool and at home to Everton. Defeats in both domestic cups to Sunderland represented wasted opportunities, perhaps.

Koeman begins his career in English football away to Liverpool at Sunday lunchtime, in a game sure to feature some prime Saints talent in both sides - and on the home team's bench, too. A repeat of last season's win may is unlikely but a home game against West Brom and a visit to West Ham are more promising in August, before homes games with Newcastle and QPR sandwich a trip to Swansea. Opening Sunday aside, Koeman has been given a friendly enough welcome.

Saints fans are being asked to place a great degree of trust in the board and manager, but with administration and League One fresh in the memory they will know that the money brought in from sales will help stabilise a club who looked to be going the same way as Pompey. It would have been wonderful if a club of Southampton's size could have kept their talent and even added to it but there are worse things in football than raising a quick £100m. If the academy that hones most of the sold stars and also developed Gareth Bale keeps on producing, then there could soon be more reasons for smiles at St Mary's.

Philip Cornwall

[sadoldgit]

That will never do! Yet anothere well balanced article.

[sadoldgit]

Good article but the piece I agree with most strongly is - "What is the point of it all?" It sums up my feelings at this moment exactly. We had everything in place last season to be able to make a challenge for the top 6 until Cortese and Mopo left. It is like watching a house of cards come tumbling down because someone has stolen the foundations and then trying to build a new one with some of the old cards and some new ones and hope that is stays up. It all seems so pointless as had we not let the foundations go, we wouldn't be in this position. I am not stupid enough to think that we could have kept our players once Cortese and Mopo left but it does raise the question - "what is the point of it all?"

 

That seems to imply that the players wouldnt have gone if Cortses and Pochettino had stayed and that is something we will never know. What we do now is that the money wasnt there for a challenge for the top four so it is hard to see those like Lallana and Lovren staying in a mid table set up.

[Big Bad Bob]

Good article but the piece I agree with most strongly is - "What is the point of it all?" It sums up my feelings at this moment exactly. We had everything in place last season to be able to make a challenge for the top 6 until Cortese and Mopo left. It is like watching a house of cards come tumbling down because someone has stolen the foundations and then trying to build a new one with some of the old cards and some new ones and hope that is stays up. It all seems so pointless as had we not let the foundations go, we wouldn't be in this position. I am not stupid enough to think that we could have kept our players once Cortese and Mopo left but it does raise the question - "what is the point of it all?"

 

 

[sadoldgit]

What is the point of sport? It is something for us to do or watch to help pass the time in a hopefully pleasurable way until we shuffle off this mortal coil. If we stop getting pleasure from it for whatever reason (like people we have never met leaving and going somewhere else) then perhaps we should consider looking for pleasure elsewhere?

[rudi7s]

Excellent article. So often journos/pundits offer under-researched, downright incorrect at times, drivel. This is well balanced and well thought out, whilst being correct in nearly everything stated.

[angelman]

Why is the question "what is the point of it all?" buried in with the seasons predictions? It should be having pages and pages dedicated to the subject. Much more interesting than constantly reading about Van Gaal, Liverpool or Arsenal. (I think that I usually prefer the team that get's the least press coverage (of those that can win it) to win the league and this year it seems to be Chelsea).

[Saint Mikey]

About to post this one myself. The first paragraph sums it up for a lot of us ... in a different time it could have been the start of something brilliant and I imagine the writer speaks for most of us who, at some point over the summer, have thought "what the point of all this is if a team is dismantled as soon as it threatens to smash the glass ceiling."

 

Seems like a fairly reasonable assessment of our chances but let's hope Roko has a couple more surprises up his sleeve.

 

I agree to a certain extent, but what era would that have been? The 70s or 80s? As a kid in the 90s I watched as for successive seasons our best players were sold:

 

1989/90 - D. Wallace

1990/1 - R. Wallace

1991/2 - Shearer, Ruddock, Horne

1993/4 - Flowers

1994/5 - Kenna

 

Not only that but replaced with utter dross in most cases. Whilst this season is akin to losing all these players in one go, would we really have mounted a title challenge at any point? Even if we'd kept our best players? With the might of the top clubs, I find this doubtful at best.

 

Football bought into this direction the moment it whored itself out to Sky. The big clubs were always going to benefit from the Globalisation Sky could facilitate and the small clubs were always going to suffer. As fans we've all bent over and taken it, lapped up all the live games that were never there before.

 

As a club our size, the best you can hope for is to stay in the top league. Anything else is a bonus. You can have no expectation or ambition - that's the sad position we're in.

[Frank's cousin]

What is the point of sport? It is something for us to do or watch to help pass the time in a hopefully pleasurable way until we shuffle off this mortal coil. If we stop getting pleasure from it for whatever reason (like people we have never met leaving and going somewhere else) then perhaps we should consider looking for pleasure elsewhere?

 

Very true.. And some will, as we see with attendances going down with relegation or poor form. Football is odd though in that the 'Tribal' nature is encouraged so that we have to believe and accept that 'true' fans will keep supporting and going no matter how crap, or poor the side become or what the boards dish out.... Sporting ideals of being competitive or having ambition seem lost to those who like to play the uber fan and dictate the 'rules of fandom' and preach the mantra of loyalty whatever happens.

 

Personally, sporting ideals and aspiration to be better and improve year on year are important. No problem if that is not possible because of finance or bad luck with injuries and loss of form, but to see a side on the cusp of achieving something, where it is obvious to all that it still has potential to do even better, (and not by spending 100s millions as some likes to believe) but with a modest investment in key areas, complementing ever improving locally developed, nurtured and coached talent, dismantled before it has a chance to realise that potential... For whatever reason... Is what is so disappointing and makes some, including me, question 'what is the point'.... And although I only get to a couple of games and so my spend is modest, even with the travel compared to some, I will struggle if we are worse than last season to maintain any enthusiasm.... Going backwards is not what sport is about... And whilst the hope that RK can deliver a decent season, and until it kicks off, we don't know, I suspect it won't make pleasant watching this year... In the context of life, no problem, way more important and pleasurable things, but in the context supporting a side for over 35 years, it's not great.

[Midfield_General]

In the comments underneath that article is an equally interesting preview by a supporter who goes by the username Consortium11.

 

Interesting not least because it must be 10,000 words long. It's literally the longest web comment contribution I've ever seen.

 

Whoever it is has dedicated a LOT of time to it. Does Consortium11 post on here?

[Toon Saint]

In the comments underneath that article is an equally interesting preview by a supporter who goes by the username Consortium11.

 

Interesting not least because it must be 10,000 words long. It's literally the longest web comment contribution I've ever seen.

 

Whoever it is has dedicated a LOT of time to it. Does Consortium11 post on here?

 

Don't think so, but he's pretty famous on the Guardian comments section. He posts similarly lengthy 'reports' after every Saints game. Always a good read but the fella must have way too much time on his hands.

[max_saints]

unfortunately Jordan turnbull (on loan) and Sam Stephens (who?) are unlikely to be involved this season. but other than that, agree with the article that fears of a relegation battle are misplaced. we'll finish around 10-15th

[UpweySaint]

I agree to a certain extent, but what era would that have been? The 70s or 80s? As a kid in the 90s I watched as for successive seasons our best players were sold:

 

1989/90 - D. Wallace

1990/1 - R. Wallace

1991/2 - Shearer, Ruddock, Horne

1993/4 - Flowers

1994/5 - Kenna

 

Not only that but replaced with utter dross in most cases. Whilst this season is akin to losing all these players in one go, would we really have mounted a title challenge at any point? Even if we'd kept our best players? With the might of the top clubs, I find this doubtful at best.

 

Football bought into this direction the moment it whored itself out to Sky. The big clubs were always going to benefit from the Globalisation Sky could facilitate and the small clubs were always going to suffer. As fans we've all bent over and taken it, lapped up all the live games that were never there before.

 

As a club our size, the best you can hope for is to stay in the top league. Anything else is a bonus. You can have no expectation or ambition - that's the sad position we're in.

 

As someone born in 1991 I can empathise. I certainly feel, though the best often left, the financial kilter was not as far gone prior to the 'sky' days.

 

A title challenge, perhaps not. Establishing ourselves amongst the likes of the Spurs and Evertons of this world? Who knows. That is honestly it, we are dealing with massively hypothetical scenarios. The 'bigger' clubs all had to start somewhere.

 

Sadly your assessment is realistic, if perhaps a tad pessimistic. I would agree with you about expectation but disagree about ambition. I don't think the fans, or the board, are foolish enough to believe we can go toe to toe with the big boys on their terms but we do have a plan, an idea about how we might be able to compete in sporting terms despite lacking the financial muscle of other sides.

[Lets B Avenue]

In the comments underneath that article is an equally interesting preview by a supporter who goes by the username Consortium11.

 

Interesting not least because it must be 10,000 words long. It's literally the longest web comment contribution I've ever seen.

 

Whoever it is has dedicated a LOT of time to it. Does Consortium11 post on here?

 

Apart from the absence of capital letters and bold print, I assumed it came from David of Sweden.

[eelpie]

I am now delighted that we have Koeman as manager instead of Poch, despite the shock of the player exodus.

 

I'm feeling that with Pochetino in charge we might not have been able to do better than 8th place this season, even with a strengthened squad.

Because he did have his faults - like sticking with one system ('we always play the same way' he frequently said - and don't mention Sunderland!). And other clubs were sussing his limited tactics out.

 

Koeman is the more versatile and experienced manager, and the new signings are promising. Despite losing to Leverkusen on Saturday, there were some encouraging individual performances and smart play, and I can't wait to see how the team rebuilding develops. Given time - more than one season - I believe Big Ron can better Pochetino's successes.

 

Let the season begin!

[Appy]

Steinberg knows us pretty well, is at St Mary's a fair bit.